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Thread: Most Accurate Mock Drafts - Past Four Years

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    NUGap's Avatar
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    Most Accurate Mock Drafts - Past Four Years

    I found this looking on the internet today and I have a soft spot for stats and rankings with real numbers behind them. So for those interested, here's a site that scores popular mock drafts around the internet to find the most accurate. If this has been posted before, oops, sorry. I just found it interesting, in case you're looking to find a good place to get your info (aside from here) It's not perfect, but it's something:


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    Interesting that over 5 years Mel Kiper Jr. is the 4th highest ... very impressive. I was surprised to read that he was significantly higher than Mike Mayock who was in a huge tie for 32'nd highest over 5 years. Just taking last year alone, Kiper was 19th and Mayock 79th ... so while we all laugh, Kiper is actually pretty accurate at predicting the picks, even if he's off a bit sometimes in his assessment of talent. But, nobody does their homework like Kiper.

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    Most Accurate Mock Drafts - Past Four Years

    Good find!
    Round 1- Tyler Eifert
    Round 2a- Justin Hunter
    Round 2b- Brennan Williams
    Round 3a- Brandon Jenkins
    Round 3b- Bacarri Rambo

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    good read

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    Originally Posted by Digital
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    Interesting that over 5 years Mel Kiper Jr. is the 4th highest ... very impressive. I was surprised to read that he was significantly higher than Mike Mayock who was in a huge tie for 32'nd highest over 5 years. Just taking last year alone, Kiper was 19th and Mayock 79th ... so while we all laugh, Kiper is actually pretty accurate at predicting the picks, even if he's off a bit sometimes in his assessment of talent. But, nobody does their homework like Kiper.
    Mayock isn't tied for 32nd. Everyone on that list after 32 is incomplete because they don't have a 5 year history. But those rankings are just based on averages so really Ben Standig & Bob McGinn are #1 & 2, respectively, in mock draft accuracy.

    You would think the more mainstream draft analysts (like Kiper, Mayock, Rang, Nawrocki) would have greater success due to their national networking of NFL front offices & coaches.

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    Originally Posted by SMadison29
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    Mayock isn't tied for 32nd. Everyone on that list after 32 is incomplete because they don't have a 5 year history. But those rankings are just based on averages so really Ben Standig & Bob McGinn are #1 & 2, respectively, in mock draft accuracy.

    You would think the more mainstream draft analysts (like Kiper, Mayock, Rang, Nawrocki) would have greater success due to their national networking of NFL front offices & coaches.
    Right, the "over 5 years" part was the average. Your accuracy was the "Just taking last year alone" part. To me, both were relevant metrics, with the 5 year average being the most significant.

    Thanks for noting the incomplete part though, because I read it quickly and didn't realize that. It really does change how we view it. Also, I agree with your point about the mainstream draft analysts and their connections to NFL front offices. All good points, thanks.

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    One thing to remember about that mock draft competition, which I've entered and done well in before, is that the final entry is what matters most. Everyone submits their final mock by a certain time the night before the Draft.

    So if you're looking for an accurate mock the morning of the Draft then by all means seek that list, find the best guy, and look at his mock. But if you're trying to find an accurate mock in January...good luck.
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    Pick #012: DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
    Pick #022: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
    Pick #054: TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
    Pick #082: FS Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse
    Pick #174: CB D.J. Hayden, Houston
    Pick #204: OG Hugh Thornton, Illinois
    Pick #206: TE Joseph Fauria, UCLA
    Pick #208: QB Peter Lalich, California (PA)

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