My Perspective, Patterson vs Allen

[AcidBath]

My concern with Allen is the lack of depth in his routes and then yards after the catch. I understand that's partially tied to his offense. Around 63% of Allen's catches came from screens or within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Here's a chart showing Patterson vs. Allen's average depth of catch and then yards after the catch:


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Conversely, Patterson drops around 8% of his passes, compared to 4% for Allen.

I commented about this in a different thread but, I calculated what an "Average QB" throws to their number one wide receiver based on the WRs in this draft. I've found that if Patterson had a Average QB, he would have had 434 more yards due to an increase in targets and a decrease in misses. Allen would have lost 16 yards ​(pretty much a wash), essentially saying that Zach Maynard was about average in terms of % misses and targets at Allen. To CK's point, Patterson was targeted on just 20% of Bray's passes, while the average for starting WRs that I've done is around 29%.

I'll have more on all WRs later (I need to get everything consolidated for a post/ sticking it up somewhere on the internet), but make your own judgments on that. Allen, by far has the lowest catch yards from the LOS.

Wow thank you for the stats and graph it really showed me even more reasons why i stick by my feelings.

[xXwarXx]

I would swap Russell Wilson for Ryan Tannehill in a heartbeat. And that's nothing against Ryan Tannehill.

---------- Post added at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------



You really need to account for the fact that he was in his first year out of JUCO playing in the SEC against SEC defenses with a QB that already had chemistry with Justin Hunter who got the heavy bulk of targets.

Derek Dooley said he's never seen a guy have that big an impact in that short an amount of time.

I wouldn't exactly have called Randall Cobb a "polished" player when he came out. He was a converted quarterback who still was used all over the place in different ways with the aim of just getting the ball in his hands in space and seeing what he could do with it.

Why do I have to account for that? You make it sound like hunter put up god tier stats on the other side. There was more than enough room and time for Patterson to pt up better stats as an actual wr. Where's the routes, where's the catches, where's the reads, I don't see any of that.

At 12, that's a crazy risk IMO. Once you get past the few amazing highlights, you wonder what hes doing the rest of the time on the field. You look at his game by game production, and yes I get that he didn't have the time to assimilate to tenn the way he should have, came from juco, etc.

But he's this superior player ppl are building him up tk be, he wouldn't of went on a 5 game run where he did almost nothing. at 12 this seems like a crazy pick IMO, the more I look at it.

I don't agree with the Cobb comparison, packers had the luxury to draft a project wr, we def do not. Not in the 1st rnd at least.

[ckparrothead]

It's simple. He didn't go on a 5 game run where he did "almost nothing".

I assume you're talking about the 5 game stretch from the Akron game to the South Carolina game. But in that 5 game stretch he produced 3 touchdowns along with 553 yards on 33 touches.

God damn. I'd love that kind of "almost nothing" production on the Dolphins.

You say you're accounting for his being fresh off a JUCO transfer, but in practice you're not really showing me that you are, IMO.

[xXwarXx]

I'm talking about what he did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

I know he is special once the ball is in his hands, but the kid looks completely raw and flat out ugly in many areas of wr, getting that ball there may not be so easy. On top of that, you keep mentioning this juco transfer, well now he's going ti have ti make the jump into the NFL.

And he's going to have to learn technique AND and system, that many vets seem to have trouble with.

Thats a tall order.

[NUGap]

I'm talking about what hen did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

To be fair, I think if you're drafting Patterson, you're drafting his as a weapon. To draft him and then use him solely as a receiver, then you're under utilizing his talents. In that 5 game stretch, he only had 127 yards receiving. However, he averaged 34 yards/ kick off return. I think it's fair to lump that into his production, given that it is one of the talents you receive when you draft Patterson. Over those 5 games he averaged 34 yards/ return, which I think most people would kill for. I think you have to look at the whole package, which is where some people are getting caught up.

EDIT: Posted this before the edit in the original post

[ckparrothead]

I'm talking about what he did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

I know he is special once the ball is in his hands, but the kid looks completely raw and flat out ugly in many areas of wr, getting that ball there may not be so easy. On top of that, you keep mentioning this juco transfer, well now he's going ti have ti make the jump into the NFL.

And he's going to have to learn technique AND and system, that many vets seem to have trouble with.

Thats a tall order.

But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

[xXwarXx]

But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

Didn't know about the stevie Johnson juco thing, and I dont Know how many players have had similar stories but I'm guessing most juco guys don't become Stevie Johnson. But again, I don't know much About this.

A lot of what you use as excuses as to why he wasn't assimilated into the offense as a wr is what scares me the most. Why wasn't he pushed into the offense more? Even as time went by? You probably know more about this than I do, but as a wr, what does he actually do good? I don't see much there.

I'm not ignoring the other ways he's produced, but we all need to be realistic, were not drafting him to run trick plays and return kicks, were drafting him to play wr.

And I completely disagree that his transfer from juco to tenn gives any clue of how he will transfer to the NFL. There is really no comparison between the two.

[xXwarXx]

Also just want to add, I think you may be underestimating the complications of this system as far as WR's go. There's a reason you don't see the patriots drafting a lot of athlete WRs, that are raw.

They won't make it. They don't even have a chance in that system,. That's why no matter how much NE tries to replace branch and welker they are still there.

Were obviously not NE, but that is where philbin is trying to bring it to. When you hear vets talking about how tough the system is, just imagine what a juco kid is going to see. He won't see anything cuz he won't get on the field, same way egnew couldn't. How many times did we see guys like Charles clay line up in the wrong place?

I dunno, Maybe you just have far more faith in raw players than I do.

[finfan54]

I just see Patterson as a good kid who has great moves in the open field. No way does he remind me of Ginn. He is tougher than Ginn. I just dont buy the hype as a #1 guy. What I see is end around dangerous with occasional over the middle pass. I think he would do well with other guys getting doubled but so would others IMO.

His stick foot in the open field is very good and seems to go forward instead of one Brandon Marshall who completely stops.

[Digital]

What I notice first about Patterson is that he has made a lot of progress from arriving at UT to breaking into the first team, to finishing the season as one of their top weapons.

Justin Hunter, who I also like, has had great teaching every step of the way, and in high school played for a good system and was a very highly regarded prospect. His time at UT was as the #1 WR from day 1 and he learned a lot of great things, like decent route running, how to high point a reception, and how to be a good downfield blocker. He also has been taught for years how to properly snatch the football as a hands catcher. My issues with Hunter are that he lacks sufficient arm/hand strength and has trouble holding onto the ball in traffic. He also simply drops some very makable throws from concentration lapses. These things can be learned, but my worry is that he has been taught the right way for many years ... and its still an issue. I am a huge fan of Justin Hunter, but the guy needs to add some strength and concentrate on catching before running. Secondly, he needs to get and stay healthy. He needs to add muscle to help with all of this ... but the kid is a long lean jumping machine mismatch in the red zone and a fast deep threat with a great wingspan.

Patterson hasn't had the same level of teaching ...but he has started learning at a nice pace, which is very encouraging. He knows he needs to work, which is crucial. He seems like a guy who will be receptive to the teaching he needs. Patterson may be raw, but he sure appears to be doing the right things to get where he needs to get. And I like that.

We aren't at the same stage as the Patriots. They are at the very top with a great established QB and a humming machine that always features WR's, offers a goood chance for a ring, and need to win NOW because their great QB is long in the tooth. The Dolphins are a rebuilding team putting the foundation in place and our young QB is still learning the ropes. We can't attract top WR's for cut-rate prices to give them a chance to star in the Brady and Belichik show and maybe pick up the grand prize, a ring. We need to pay top dollar to entice those WR's NOT to go there but come to a nice city and fight in an uncertain and youthful system. The Patriots don't develop WR's because they don't have to do so. What we want is a pace-setter and some young WR's to grow with Tannehill. Ideally the pace-setter would teach the young WR's how to become great and what is necessary.