Long coming back for Miami?

[djavelin]

We better not give him a huge deal. 3 years 17 mill or something short.
He needs to Stay healthier. Would a position change help?
If he wants stupid money we let him walk.

[z926538]

Let him go. New England has dealt with players this way for a long time. There is a certain Moneyball approach that can be taken in situations like this. Especially in the Hard Cap NFL, where most teams spend close to the same amount of money, yet some teams finish 2-14, while other win 10+ games every year. It can't JUST be coaching or injury problems. At some level, it must boil down to massively overpaying players. Even if they perform at an elite level, they can still be over paid. Baseball's value over replacement player or VORP is an excellent method of evaluation in the NFL as well.

I love this analysis. Four years of losing but spending the same money as the winning teams -- we must be overpaying our players when compared to their talent level and their respective contributions to the team. The key to having a winning team for a GM and head coach is to determine the expected level of contribution from each position on the roster, to allocate salary based upon that expected contribution, and to find sufficiently talented players who will play for the allocated salary level. Trading players toward the end of their careers before they start their physical decline and are overpaid is one tool to accomplish this.