Draft player or need?
You are drafting for your NFL team.. your biggest need is OT but the best player on the board is a WR - would you draft opposed to need in order to get the best player (the WR) out there and use FA to get your 'need' or do you draft directly to need regardless of who is on the board.... after all you have perfectly good WRs in place already so why spend the big bucks on the new WR in an early round and miss out on your big need on the line??
How good is the remaining O lineman? I mean, let's say you're looking at Taylor Lewan or Mike Evans, pretty much the number 3 O lineman and 1 WR. You have to ask yourself if their differences are wide enough to go for Evans over Lewan. Frankly I think at 19 Miami is going to be looking at Zack Martin v. players like Ebron, Pryor, or Benjamin. At that point all three of the non linemen are better than Martin so you take one of them.
Alright. Let's say it's Lewan and the best player on the board is Blake Bortles. Does Miami take a QB in the first? Probably not, and at that point you have the same issue as the second scenario, but now you have an option of trading back, adding picks, because someone wants Bortles.
I don't think it's that black and white. There are a lot of factors that play into a selection. Of the available OTs how many are a scheme fit for the ZBS? If you don't take an OT in the 1st round what is the likelihood you can grab one in a later round that also fits the scheme? If you select a position that is not your greatest need then how does he fit into the plans for the upcoming season? How and when will you address the needs of the team/roster during the draft? Contingency, contingency, contingency.
IMO if it was the absolute best rated player on your board is WR when your pick is up and he's a sure fire, can't miss prospect then I draft him if all the OTs are off the board. No one knows how Brandon Gibson or Binns will look when they rejoin the team next year coming off of ACL surgery. It may cause you to have to overdraft a position of need later but if there's a chance to get an elite skill position player, which we have very few of, I think you make that call.
Realistically I don't see a WR in this draft worthy of the #19 overall pick. Sammy Watkins will probably be gone in the top 15, after that you're looking at Marqise Lee who's a lot like Mike Wallace to me except a better route runner but you have major concerns over durability with him, he's also not very physical and you wonder how he'll do against press coverage (which we see a lot in this division) and Mike Evans who I'm not high on...big bodied receiver, kind of stiff, not a very good route runner, not really a good fit for this offense. He looks good playing "backyard football" with Manziel who ad-libs a lot of plays but in a more structured setting...don't know. I'm not a fan of Kelvin Benjamin either and there will be higher rated players at #19 than him.
At 19, I'd consider Allen Robinson at a push, but that's about it. As you say, there are better players in other positions.
Originally Posted by datruth55
I used to think that drafting BIGGEST NEED was more important than drafting the BEST PLAYERS. But how far has this really gotten us? I think Ireland did not draft either our biggest need, nor did he take the best players on the board in his series of drafts over the years.
To me the main reason we cannot compete with teams like the Patriots, Denver, etc., is our offense just doesn't put up enough points. You can be an average team defensively and win, but if you cannot score points with the way the NFL is currently set up, you are not going to win.
I think we need to add another top WR, a solid TE and a quality RB...nothing against Miller and the other RB's, but we need guys who can catch the ball out of the backfield, and make some big plays.
I would focus on getting weapons on offense, and get the O-lineman through free agency or later draft picks.
I don't believe in late decisions. In an ideal world, a general manager would be able to ignore the makeup of his team and rank the prospects first to last, and then robotically select the highest guy remaining. Even if you ended up with lopsided numbers at the same position in certain years I'm confident it would pay off handsomely, even if the fanbase might scream.
Of course, I'm a systems guy. I believe in virtually anything that lessens subjectivity. There are some metrics showing up in regard to college players that look quite promising. In regard to wide receivers I've seen mentions of drop percentages and yards after catch and similar. I still think it's dangerous to get carried away with that and ignore long term excellence. For example, Marquise Lee may have dropped passes in bunches this year but he's been a star every year since I heard his name. I remember the Canes recruiting him passionately along with all the powerhouse schools. Then it translated quickly to college when he starred as a freshman. You want to believe he can't catch with his hands but then as a rookie he'll be what he's always been...one of the best on the field.
I think folks were relating my OP to what is actually happening with the Dolphins.. I am not it was a hypothetical.. what would YOU do drafting for an NFL team.. how would YOU approach the draft and how would YOU choose the players you picked.. would you base it purely no the needs of the team or on the best player left in the draft pool whether that be a WR a RB a CB a LB or other position when what you NEEDED was perhaps an OT or a TE or a DE for example...
You pick for need. Surely last year strengthens that argument. We had 3 legitimate pass rushing DE's, but a piss poor O'line which cost us a chance of playoffs and had our No.1 priority RT, running for his life all season.
What I would do though is handle re-signings and FA, so that your perceived needs are the strength of the draft.
This year I would double up on 4 positions, WR, OT, DT & CB, with us targeting one of the OT's in 1st round.
Unless Miami develops a clear vision of what they want the team to look like, this argument is kind of . . . moot. You draft players who fit what you're doing. It's the reason Seattle has the best secondary with one 1st RD player, two 5th RD players, and one 6th RD player starting in their secondary. When you look along the Seattle D, the high draft picks are few and far between. The D-line with its amazing pass rushing depth doesn't have a 1st RD pick; it does have multiple UDFA's. When you look at the LB unit, you have one 1st RD pick in Bruce Irvin, a 2nd in Wagner, and a 4th in Wright. So this D that is as good as any in recent memory has two 1st RD picks and one 2nd. How does that happen? Are they finding gems that everyone missed out on? To some extent, yes, but the bigger story is that they have a clear vision of what they need a player to do well, so they can take flawed prospects (Richard Sherman btw was abused during Senior Bowl week) and make them All Pros or huge contributors in that system. It's the reason every year, people are really blah about Seattle's drafts. They note all the areas where their picks struggled and talk about how they reached on almost every pick. The exception would be the Okung/Thomas draft. It's the reason teams try to copy their big DB approach and end up looking like fools, because their big CB's don't seem to play as well for some reason.
I was really hoping that Miami would find a way to poach someone from the Seattle organization this off season. There's more than one way to get it done, but it has to be a physical brand, and you have to have a clear vision for what you're doing. Our entire organization seems to stumble through everything we do without any direction.
Mmm. 19 pick. Bortels or Manziel is there. Probably the BPA. Do we take them.....no. We trade back because someone will want them. We take the BPA where we are thin at. O/L, ILB, WR perhaps. It's not black and white, as much as we would like it too be.
Last year when we took Jordan, I was pretty happy because in 2 years time Wake will be slowing down and DJ will be a full time replacement with experience to be a leader on the d line.