Alright, I decided it's time for a new thread and to start up some of my Fantasy Football commentary. The current subject is undervalued players, i.e. sleepers who I anticipate will outperform their perceived value and also overvalued players who will underperform their perceived value.
First off, you have to understand that a sleeper is only a sleeper if you don't reach for him in your draft. For example, I think Donte Stallworth is going to have a breakout year and could post numbers this year that may even surpass Joe Horn's although that may be a bit generous. That doesn't mean that you should draft him in round 3 though, which is the average round that Joe Horn is going in. It would be a better idea to grab someone like Eric Moulds or Amani Toomer in round 3 and pick up Stallworth in round 6 where you spend a much less valuable pick on someone who you anticipate will perform like a top 10 receiver. If you take a sleeper too early and he doesn't pan out, you really wasted a pick. That is why they are called sleepers. Get the guys you know will perform early, and spend the later picks on guys who you anticipate will outperform the pick you spent on them.
I'm not gonna give 'em all to you at once, or this post would be about 10 miles long...
Alright, first up is my Super Sleeper... Marc Boerigter who is the #3 WR for the Kansas City Chiefs
Marc Boerigter is flying really low on the radar on alot of people's drafts, but I think this guy is gonna have a breakout year. He has size, speed, and incredible talent and as the #3 WR on the team he should see plenty of favorable matchups where he's being covered by a linebacker that he can easily burn to make the catch through a hole in coverage. It will really help that defenses will be focused on Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzales as well as Kansas City's #1 and #2 WRs who have left alot to be desired. Last year this guy had a 21 yard per catch average and scored 8 TDs in only 20 balls. One of the reasons he only had 20 balls thrown his way is because he missed almost all of Training Camp and the entire preseason due to an emergency appendectomy. It takes a bit to recover from that, but this kid was a complete stud when he finally started getting in the game. If you saw the highlights from Kansas City's recent preseason game, you saw him snag one in a hole and completely juke a DB out of his drawers and fly by him like he wasn't there taking it 59 yards for the score. This guy is a serious downfield threat every time he touches the ball.
Boerigter, when he is being drafted, tends to go somewhere around the end of the 12th round although I've seen him go as early as the 7th and as late as the 15th. The key is to grab him when picking him up is not wasting your pick. I tend to try to jump on him around the 10th to 11th round depending upon how many other receivers have already been taken during the earlier draft rounds.
Alright, my first overvalued 'bust' player is David Boston, who will be filling the #1 WR spot for the San Diego Chargers.
David Boston had a massive breakout season for the Cardinals two years ago, only to turn around last year and be a complete bust for anyone who wasted a draft pick on him. He ended up having season ending surgery in about week 10 because his ankle was giving him serious problems all year long. This year, San Diego picked him up as their new #1 receiver to replace the departed Curtis Conway.
So far in training camp, Boston has been battling with nagging injuries all month long. He can't seem to stay healthy no matter what he does. First it's his ankle again and he sits out for 3 days, and then after 2 days of practice it's an oblique muscle, and he sits out for 4 days and a preseason game, and then it's another injury and he's missing more time. This is not a good sign at all for Boston, who is clearly showing that he is not healthy and cannot play through injuries like some of the other athletes in the league.
Adding to this situation, San Diego does not have a legitimate threat at the #2 WR position with Reche Caldwell. Caldwell is decent, but he is no Peerless Price and defenses will be able to double cover Boston all season long. This is probably good news for owners who chose to draft LaDainian Tomlinson in the first round, because it means Brees will be dumping the ball off in the backfield to LT more often than trying to force it in double coverage to Boston. Boston has clearly not performed to the same level of play as he displayed 2 years ago, and I honestly think it will be another disappointing year for David Boston owners.
David Boston tends to be drafted somewhere in the 3rd round, although I've seen him slip towards the beginning of the fourth. I just really think that a WR pick here is better spent on Koren Robinson, Joe Horn (although I'd rather wait and get Stallworth), Amani Toomer, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Derrick Mason, or Plaxico Burress. I predict that all of these WRs including many others that I didn't specifically list will outscore Boston in the year to come.
More to come a little later on. It's time for a nap. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on who you feel may be under or overvalued, or to argue my position. All views are welcome.