Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ
If Arkansas gets up early on K-State, I'm not sure their passing game is structured to come from behind and get them back in it against a team like the Razorbacks. Conversely, Arkansas has already shown they can storm back from a deficit against a Big-12 opponent. They were down 14-0, 28-14, and 35-17 at various points in the game against aTm... won it 42-38.
They have the best passing attack in the SEC... and they'll surprise you with their ability to run the ball with Dennis Johnson. Not to mention they have a huge edge in special teams with the most electrifying punt returner in the country with Joe Adams, and Dennis Johnson on kick offs.
Both teams got screwed by the BCS. Arkansas could theoretically be the 3rd best team in the country.
The Penn St./Houston matchup is one of the best of the bowl season in terms of a contrast in styles. Ol' school, stubborn, stingy, physical defense.. vs. high flying, high octane, finesse offense.
Penn St.'s defense is top 5 in scoring, and top 5 against the pass. Top 10 in total defense.
Houston's offense is statistically the best in the country in terms of points and passing, but doing it against cupcakes. They had a lot of trouble against a team that could play a little defense in Southern Miss. Penn St. has better depth and better athletes on defense than Southern Miss. It's going to boil down to how much intensity they bring with them playing in an irrelevant bowl game against an opponent from a non-BCS conference.