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Thread: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden - A Metrics Breakdown

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    Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden - A Metrics Breakdown

    What I wanted to do was breakdown some stats and give a numerical backing to some of the things you see when you're watching the tape of these top 4 quarterbacks. The numbers are definitely meant to compliment what you see, not replace it. Essentially what I've done here is take 4 games each from Luck, Griffin, Weeden, and Tannehill, and chart every throw they made within those games. I noted what formation they threw the ball from, the outcome (did the receiver catch it, did he drop it, was it a fluke interception..etc), and the distance of the throw.

    It's important to note that in order to limit this to the quarterback's ability, I noted only where the receiver caught the ball. I'm going to give some charts and then a little commentary.

    Overall Comp%
    Griffin Luck Tannehill Weeden
    Total Comp% Comp% Comp% Comp%
    Screen 85.71 88.89 93.55 90.48
    1-5 Yards 75.00 85.00 64.29 75.56
    6-10 Yards 60.00 70.83 57.14 64.71
    11-20 Yards 68.00 46.15 55.88 55.56
    20 + Yards 60.00 41.67 31.82 52.38
    Total 69.17 68.47 62.00 69.52


    These are obviously the completion percentages for each quarterback and the various depths I assigned. Again, these depths are only where the QB threw the ball and the WR caught it.

    %TotalThrows
    Griffin Luck Tannehill Weeden
    %Throw %Throw %Throw %Throw
    Screen 15.79 8.11 20.67 22.46
    1-5 Yards 24.06 36.04 18.67 24.06
    6-10 Yards 22.56 21.62 23.33 18.18
    11-20 Yards 18.80 23.42 22.67 24.06
    20 + Yards 18.80 10.81 14.67 11.23


    These are how often each QB threw to each zone, thus Weeden threw screens 22.46% of the time and Luck threw 1-5 yards 36% of the time

    Here are some of my thoughts and a little summary of this data:

    Andrew Luck:

    • Only 8.1% of Luck's throws were screens, but an unprecedented 36% of Luck's passes were 1-5 yards from the Line of Scrimmage. The QBs, on average, threw 25.1% of their passes in the 1-5yd range
    • While he threw a ridiculous amount of passes in 1-5yds, he also completed them at an 85% rate, better than any percentage at any position or depth, except for screens
    • Out of the 4 passers, Luck went deep the least, only opting to throw past 20 yards 10% of the time, for a comparison RGIII threw deep 19% of the time

    Griffin:

    • The thing that sticks out at me for RGIII is the fact that he throws the various distances pretty evenly. the range of how often he throws the different depths is between 16% (screens) and 24% (1-5yds)
    • We all know the lore about his deep ball, but here's some numbers to back up the ridiculousness. He throws the deep ball (20+) 18.8% of the time and completes it 60% of the time. Luck only completes the deep ball 42% and Weeden 52%
    • He also has the highest completion percentage for the 11-20 yard pass at 68% (Luck 46%, Tannehill and Weeden 56%)

    Weeden:

    • With Justin Blackmon at receiver, the mention of Oklahoma State's offense conjures up images of big plays and deep throws. 22.5% of Weeden's throws were screens (side note: when I did Matt Barkley, an amazing 25% of his throws were screens)
    • Weeden doesn't have the top completion percentage at any of the depths, but is very solid at all of them, with a good 52% completion rate at 20+ yards, he can hit the deeper passes pretty well
    • Strangely, from my sample, the percentage of his total throws at 1-5 yards and 11-20 yards were exactly the same, choosing to throw at those depths 24.06% of the time

    Tannehill:

    • As you can tell by my stats, I'm a big fan of completion percentage as a key predictor for college QBs, if that holds true - color me unimpressed with Tannehill
    • He throws deep 15% of the time, the second most of the QBs, but completes them at a paltry 32%, the worst of the QBs
    • 21% of the his throws are screens, and out of all the depths for him - he throws the 6-10 yard ball the most at 23%
    • While the other QBs have a overall completion % for the season at around 70-72%, Tannehill is lucky to hit 63%

    If you're up for it, I went a little bit deeper, creating two of my own metrics.

    PRR- Perfect Receiver Rating, I just took out drops here, essentially trying to eliminate the impact of talent level, at least on a basic level. These had to be flat out drops, not the receiver could have caught it, but he had to have it in his hands and then drop it.

    Adjusted Completion Percentage - I like this stat a lot, the idea is to see what would happen if you took RGIII and subbed him in for Andrew Luck in the game. This started when I was doing Matt Barkley (before he announced he was staying), because he had a completion percentage being driven up by the ridiculous amount of screens he was throwing. I wanted to see what his overall completion percentage would be if he had to throw less high percentage passes (screens/1-5yds) and more low percentage passes (deep balls). Thus on this one, I averaged how often they threw each depth to make a standard percentage for each distance, here's how it came out:

    Screen 16.76%
    1-5 Yards 25.71%
    5-10 Yards 21.42%
    10-20 Yards 22.24%
    20 + Yards 13.88%



    So when you average out how often they all threw the screen, it comes out to 16.76% and so on. Then using their completion percentages, I made them all throw passes at this rate to see what their new overall completion percentage was (their completion percentages at each depth would be the same)

    I then combined these metrics to see what would happen if they all threw the same depth of passes to the same receivers.

    Here's the PRR (taking out drops) completion %s:

    Perfect Receiver (PRR)
    Griffin Luck Tannehill Weeden
    Comp% Comp% Comp% Comp%
    Screen 90.00 88.89 100.00 92.68
    1-5 Yards 77.42 91.89 69.23 85.00
    5-10 Yards 62.07 70.83 66.67 73.33
    10-20 Yards 80.95 50.00 61.29 59.52
    20 + Yards 62.50 50.00 33.33 57.89
    Total 73.60 73.08 67.88 75.58



    I will say this is probably skewed towards Weeden a bit because I used the Stanford and Texas games and his receivers had 12 drops in those two games. But still interesting.

    When you use those completion percentages with the Adjusted Completion %, here's what you get:

    PRR-AdjComp% Griffin Luck Tannehill Weeden
    Comp% Comp% Comp% Comp%
    Total 74.95 71.75 67.09 74.36


    RGIII has the highest overall completion % at a whopping 75%, Weeden came in at 74.3%, Luck at 72% and Tannehill at 67%

    Griffin is definitely helped by the fact that the AdjComp% gives him more high percentage throws like screens and 1-5 yd throws and take away some of the inaccuracy of the deep ball (even if he throws it well, it's still fairly low percentage

    Luck isn't helped a whole lot, just because it takes away the weight of his crazy accuracy in the 1-5 yard range

    Tannehill gets some bump too, just because it ensures that he throws less of his god awful 32% deep ball.

    That's what I have for you. I know it was long, but I do a bunch of this stuff before the draft and I need somewhere to post it, so I'm not just hoarding info. I hope this helps you when you're looking at QBs and maybe helped you view something in a new light. If you want to take a look at the whole spreadsheet, or want more info (I have overall drop%, how effective they are in the shotgun/under center/ pistol), let me know and we can work something out. Thanks for reading it all guys, I really appreciate it.
    Last edited by NUGap; 04-18-2012 at 12:36 PM.
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    Thank's for doing it well done...............
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    Really nice work. Certainly helps the Weeden fans press their case that he's upper first round talent impacted by his age.

    You can't have a perfect stat analysis (eg factoring where the throw allowed YAC, rather than the receiver got it off his own work), but one thing that would make a big difference to this analysis is whether they were all close games against similar standard opposition. You'd have to ignore weak opposition and junk-time scores.

    Overall, very impressive. Certainly does RG3's case no harm. Excellent consistency at every distance. I'm not sure it damages Tannehill TOO much either, because we all know he's raw and inexperienced. With him, it's about what you believe his numbers COULD BE, rather than what they are. That's certainly a risk at the #8 spot, but at least he's over the magical 60% completion, no matter which stat you choose.
    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    Hey guys.
    You, sir...are a gem.
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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    One thing to keep in mind about the completion percentages for Ryan Tannehill.

    His receivers dropped 64 passes this year. That is a really, really HIGH amount. If his receivers had only dropped balls at the rate that NFL receivers drop balls, he would have had about 29 more completions. I'll do the numbers later, but even assuming a 100% even distribution of those drops, all those percentages for him which lag behind the others do go up quite a bit I would think.
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    Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it. There are definitely a good amount of flaws - the YAC and whether or not it was the QB who allowed it or just a good play by the receiver. Or if the receiver caught the ball on the 5.5 yard line, is it a 1-5 or a 6-10? In these cases, if they had forward momentum or caught the ball in stride - I gave them the longer depth. Touchdowns are especially screwy, I wouldn't use any of the TD data. Mostly because if they throw from their own 40, catch it at the 50 and then run 50 yards, you can't list it as a 60 yard pass - it's only a 10. So I had to end up making notes when something like that occurred.

    You'll notice that all the season completion %s in my charts are about 2.5-3% under their whole season total. This is because I tried to pick out 1 excellent game, 2 average games, and 1 poor game all against solid competition. My next step (assuming I have time), is to factor in the quality of the defense, passing yards allowed, etc.

    And FWIW, my 4 game sample confirms what you said on a smaller level - I had 6.02% of Griffin's passes as drops, 6.31% of Luck's as drops, 8.67% of Tannehill's as drops, and 8.02% of Weeden's as drops. In a perfect world, I'd do every one of their games, but they're damn hard to find.

    As far as Tannehill, when I took away the drops, it helped him to the tune of 6% points. I can't put my finger on it, but there's something I'm just not seeing when I watch him. Even disregarding the stats, I definitely don't see the value at 8. I think I'd take Weeden, even with the age, all day and every day, later in the draft.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it. There are definitely a good amount of flaws - the YAC and whether or not it was the QB who allowed it or just a good play by the receiver. Or if the receiver caught the ball on the 5.5 yard line, is it a 1-5 or a 6-10, in these cases, if they had forward momentum or caught the ball in stride, I gave them the longer depth. Touchdowns are especially screwy, I wouldn't use any of the TD data just because - if they throw from the 40, catch it at the 50 and then run 50 yards. you can't list it as a 60 yard pass - it's only a 10. So I had to end up making notes about all of those.

    You'll notice that all the season completion %s in my charts are about 2.5-3% under their whole season total. This is because I tried to pick out 1 excellent game, 2 average games, and 1 poor game all against solid competition. My next step (assuming I have time), is to factor in the quality of the defense, passing yards allowed, etc.

    And FWIW, my 4 game sample confirms what you said on a smaller level - I had 6.02% of Griffin's passes as drops, 6.31% of Luck's as drops, 8.67% of Tannehill's as drops, and 8.02% of Weeden's as drops. In a perfect world, I'd do all games, but they're damn hard to find.

    As far as Tannehill, when I took away the drops, he was helped to the tune of 6% points. I can't put my finger on it, but there's something I'm just not seeing when I watch him. Even disregarding the stats, I definitely don't see the value at 8. I think I'd take Weeden, even with the age, all day and every day, later in the draft.
    Nice work thank you for sharing the info !
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    A couple of things to keep in mind about Tannehill are:

    1. That adjusted PRR percentage of 67% is really good in its own right
    2. Screens aren't the only way to pump up your completion percentage
    3. He and Luck were the only players running something resembling a pro offense
    4. Forget how many starts he has, he's only been practicing at the QB position 2 years I believe
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    Wow, great job! Welcome to the board!





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    To your point about your pro-style offense...

    I broke down each play by what formation they were in, here are the completion %s:

    U-Center
    Shotgun
    Tannehill
    71.67 55.56
    Luck 65.12 75.93


    I also have the breakdown of Tannehill's percentages at each depth in each formation:

    Shotgun
    U-Center
    Screen 100.00 88.89
    1-5 60.00 75.00
    6-10 50.00 69.23
    11-20 54.17 60.00
    20 + 9.09 54.55
    Total 55.56 71.67


    I hadn't even taken the time to look at these. The under center numbers do show a lot of promise for Tannehill, considering the prevalence of shotgun/ spread formations. It could also mean that Tannehill was forced to throw out of the shotgun more when they were down in the 4th and threw incompletions, trying to make something happen. Maybe I'll go through and take out "trailing situations".
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