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Thread: Big 12 Coaches Skeptical of Weeden

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    Hayden Fox's Avatar
    At the end of the day...

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    1972 Dolphins LogoMike Wallace 11Cam Wake 91Tannehill 17Dolphin

    Big 12 Coaches Skeptical of Weeden

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...nder-pressure/

    Watching Weeden early on in the preseason will be very interesting.
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    sinPHIN's Avatar
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    the guy is overrated and ive been saying this forever. we shall see
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    Rookie

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    too old
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    Quote Originally Posted by sinPHIN View Post
    the guy is overrated and ive been saying this forever. we shall see
    He isn't going to be Marino or Brady, but I think this artice makes him sound a lot worse than he is. Put Kurt Warner with him to train and pocket colapse will not be an issue. Stand up guy with great football IQ and good arm. Def upgrade for Cleveland. With everone knocking him for his age and he is still chasing his dream, hope he proves everyone wrong.

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    Since we're on the subject, what are some reasonable rookie standards by which we can judge Brandon Weeden? I've gone back and forth about this with someone who is not, in my opinion, being very reasonable. He wants to execute a friendly wager, but he's giving me even odds for a bet that I personally think Las Vegas would prop at -400/+500.

    I had originally suggested that Weeden would have higher than a 1.0 TD-INT ratio by the the end of his 29th birthday (he will turn 29 the day he plays his 6th game of the season against the Bengals). I thought this was a very fair measure. He plays the Eagles, Bengals, Bills, Ravens, Giants and Bengals again in those 6 games. Those will be his first 6 games of his first NFL season, and I think you can reasonably suspect that his stats in those games will not quite be as good as later in the season as he gets more comfortable. Rookie QBs commonly have low TD-INT ratios, the median is WELL under 1.0.

    He comes back with the following proposal:

    I win if Brandon Weeden accomplishes TWO of the following:
    1. A passer rating above 80.0
    2. A TD-INT ratio above 1.5
    3. Six wins

    The problem is, you look through NFL history and the list of rookie QBs that have satisfied even ONE of those is short. Peyton didn't. NFL.com has statistics on what they call "qualified" passers (I think over 150 attempts, something like that). Tabulate all the rookie qualified passers from the last 15 drafts and only 10 of the 30 even satisfied one of those requirements. Only I believe 5 of the 30 notched two of them. So to have a successful season, Weeden needs to have a top 20th percentile rookie showing? On a bad team in a division with the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals defenses? Really?

    I look at those historical rookie performances, I see that MEDIAN passer rating was 68.4, and MEDIAN ratio was 0.920. Also, MEDIAN wins was 4. If you set the standards at those marks and demand satisfaction of 2 of the 3 in order to "win", then coincidentally 15 of the 30 passers made the grade where 15 failed.

    That to me is a better standard of success for a rookie, no?

    At th every least, I don't think you have to turn in top 20th percentile performance in order to not be dubbed a disappointment.
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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    hooshoops's Avatar
    Ryan tannehill...like a boss

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    unless somethings been said publicly that i haven't seen yet i'd wait til he wins the job out of camp before i made any bets...
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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    Quote Originally Posted by hooshoops View Post
    unless somethings been said publicly that i haven't seen yet i'd wait til he wins the job out of camp before i made any bets...
    Given his age, maturity level and top notch arm I think that Weeden will be handed the keys to the Brown's metaphorical Ferrari sooner rather than later. I actually kind of like Colt McCoy - like- but his intangibles can't make up for what he lacks in an arm, especially at the NFL level. Now more than ever, with Tent Richardson there to pound the rock on 1st and 2nd downs, the Browns need someone to put the fear of God in opposing defenses to keep them from stacking the box. Brandon Weeden has that type of arm and that kind of talent to do that, Colt MCcoy simply does not. Weeden over MCCoy in a rout, and sooner rather than later. Mike Holmgren is no dummy, and he knows what kind of talent and what kind of an arm he has in Weeden. They're better off letting it rip with Weeden (in the absence of that resulting mental/physical damage by rushing him, but this ain't no 22 year old) because they're going nowhere with McCoy at QB- it's better in the long run to get the new QB in the game, the QB with the actual talent, sooner rather than later because as things stand now with MCCoy they're just wasting time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hooshoops View Post
    unless somethings been said publicly that i haven't seen yet i'd wait til he wins the job out of camp before i made any bets...
    He's essentially already won the job by all the reports.
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    He may be over rated, but as far as Cleveland is concerned he is an upgrade over Colt McCoy. I think he will be a solid starter.
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    Skeptical...sort of like those that were skeptical he'd be drafted high?
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