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Thread: Threw down 2,500 on the over 7.5 wins!

  1. -31
    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by roy_miami View Post
    I wonder how often they change the line by a full game or more on these things? like if they change the line to 8.5 you could bet 2500 on the under and have a freeroll to win 5k if we go exactly 8-8.
    Very seldom. You either have to guess correctly from the outset -- "taking a lead" -- or get an immediate jump on the line when an unusual situation occurs, like a key injury that will drive the number down, or a major trade that could drive it up. Normally the trades are rumored for several days, at minimum, and the over/under might be taken off the board as a precaution.

    My friends and I did get a jump on a number this year -- Cleveland under 6. It's as low as 4.5 now. But the middle is hardly free. We had to pay -120 on the under 6. To play the over 4.5 right now costs a minimum of -130. So you are cutting into potential profit if your initial wager was correct and the "hedge" or "middle" bet loses, i.e. Cleveland wins 4 games or fewer.

    I still have no idea why anyone would jump on the Dolphins over 7.5 in the early going. It's not a bargain, by any stretch, and the number figures to go down, if anything. There are already some spots using 7 with juice on the over. To tie up money for 7 months or more you need a theoretical advantage that matches or exceeds your other options for those funds, like simply putting it in a bank. I don't see how Miami over 7.5 offers that type of edge. I guess it sounds cute on message boards among fellow fans.

    Here is a link that lists every team and the consensus over/under number and juice. You'll note the Dolphins are 7.5 under forty, which translates to -140 on under 7.5 and +120 on over 7.5. I hope the OP managed +120 or better. Otherwise he's already worse off than anyone who walked into a sportsbook today and decided to bet the Dolphins over.

    At far right is the betting trend. It's extremely early, and low volume, but you'll note the trend on Miami is overwhelmingly under -- 95% to 5% over. That's what I mean, no reason to rush. If the widespread instinct is under and you are betting over, it doesn't make a fleck of sense to play now. Let them move it your way.

    http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...tdate=6/4/2012
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  2. -32
    roy_miami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Very seldom. You either have to guess correctly from the outset -- "taking a lead" -- or get an immediate jump on the line when an unusual situation occurs, like a key injury that will drive the number down, or a major trade that could drive it up. Normally the trades are rumored for several days, at minimum, and the over/under might be taken off the board as a precaution.

    My friends and I did get a jump on a number this year -- Cleveland under 6. It's as low as 4.5 now. But the middle is hardly free. We had to pay -120 on the under 6. To play the over 4.5 right now costs a minimum of -130. So you are cutting into potential profit if your initial wager was correct and the "hedge" or "middle" bet loses, i.e. Cleveland wins 4 games or fewer.

    I still have no idea why anyone would jump on the Dolphins over 7.5 in the early going. It's not a bargain, by any stretch, and the number figures to go down, if anything. There are already some spots using 7 with juice on the over. To tie up money for 7 months or more you need a theoretical advantage that matches or exceeds your other options for those funds, like simply putting it in a bank. I don't see how Miami over 7.5 offers that type of edge. I guess it sounds cute on message boards among fellow fans.

    Here is a link that lists every team and the consensus over/under number and juice. You'll note the Dolphins are 7.5 under forty, which translates to -140 on under 7.5 and +120 on over 7.5. I hope the OP managed +120 or better. Otherwise he's already worse off than anyone who walked into a sportsbook today and decided to bet the Dolphins over.

    At far right is the betting trend. It's extremely early, and low volume, but you'll note the trend on Miami is overwhelmingly under -- 95% to 5% over. That's what I mean, no reason to rush. If the widespread instinct is under and you are betting over, it doesn't make a fleck of sense to play now. Let them move it your way.

    http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...tdate=6/4/2012
    Didn't check out the site yet but if I was forced to bet on the Dolphins I would bet the under just to take advantage of the line dropping to 6.5 or lower in case tannehill is named the starter or we suffer some big injuries. There is no way its going to move up from 7.5.
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  3. -33
    NY8123's Avatar
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    It is what it is, a bet. If you're not prepared to loss it then don't bet it. If you're going to bet a long shot might as well be for a team you root for. There are plenty of other ways to win your cash back with better odds and lines.
    Peace and Humptiness Forever


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  4. -34
    lotion's Avatar
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    Good bet. What do you get on the over ?
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  5. -35
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    Not gonna be easy to get to 8 wins..Good luck tho.
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  6. -36
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    Say goodbye to $2500
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  7. -37
    Zounds's Avatar
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    I'd say its a pretty fair bet....50% chance Miami can finish 8-8 imo
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  8. -38
    Crazysimon's Avatar
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    So it looks like I made a huge mistake. I put my young families situation in jeopardy for this team. CRAP. I need things to turn around.
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  9. -39
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    If you considered this as one of the wins when you made the bet, then yes you did make a mistake.
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  10. -40
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    wait... seriously?? i recommend some serious counseling of a multitude of varieties homes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
    Been one of my biggest issues with him. Every single year, EVERY YEAR, he makes one completely boneheaded signing that makes you think he went on a massive coke bender the night before, slept in the office, woke up still high as **** and started making calls to anybody that would answer at 4 AM on a weekday; which is apparently **** players like Naanee, Colombo, Barbie Carpenter, etc.
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