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Thread: Josh Gordon run 4.52 at pro day

  1. -31
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    I do agree with the sentiment that there are other fish in the sea. I'm not sure I agree with Chad Reuter's suggestion that Gordon is better than any receiver that could go in the 2nd round next year.

    I am intrigued with Terrance Williams, and he's always stood out to me when watching Kendall Wright and Robert Griffin, and heck he stood out to me in 2010 when trying to watch Josh Gordon. Williams actually has good size to him as I believe he's 6'1" or so...and man is he fast. You know I didn't particularly like RG3...and part of that was my feeling that between Art Briles' inventive offense with those ridiculously wide CFL type splits/spacing, and the track stars Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams, RG3 was made to look better than he really is.

    After Terrance Williams there's Aaron Mellette, whom I also like a great deal. I think he's better than Brian Quick, certainly. Reasonable speed, great size and excellent balance and control, runs after the catch, a perfect Philbin type. I know there are NFL teams with borderline 1st round grades on Mellette.

    However, after those two, it's true the seniors do suck. I'm not a big Cobi Hamilton fan. I love watching Tavon Austin but it's a simple fact he's a midget. I'm not sure Ryan Swope is any better than a Jordan Shipley. Denard Robinson is surely a project and it might be tough to convince him he's not a quarterback. There are some decent mid to late round rolls of the dice like Aaron Dobson...but the group after Williams and Mellette interests me very little.

    Thankfully that's where you get the juniors to step in. Robert Woods is a valid NFL receiver at the very least. Justin Hunter has great potential, though I think Da'Rick Rogers is better right now. Gotta watch Rogers' attitude/character though as I've heard bad things. Marquess Wilson may be the best of the bunch. Andre Debose is FAST and talented.

    Between Williams, Mellette, Woods, Hunter, Rogers, Wilson and Debose...you've got potentially a nice group of 1st through 3rd rounders in 2013. And you never know if there's another Josh Gordon hanging in there that we didn't know as much about but is destined to be considered in that group once the spotlight is shined on him.

    Just saying Gordon is a nice talent but we shouldn't get trapped into thinking we've got to have him.
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  2. -32
    TedSlimmJr's Avatar
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    Stills is a hands catcher until he's required to make a catch in traffic... or on in-breaking routes/deep digs over the middle. A lot of receivers don't like to extend their arms away from their body and expose themselves in traffic, especially in college where you're still allowed to play a little defense. There ain't many that you'll find that are willing to do it.... it's one of the things that separates the really good one's from the rest of the bunch which is the majority.

    It's one of the main reasons why I have Keenan Allen as the best underclassman WR prospect in the country, where a kid like Marquess Wilson becomes a body catcher just like Kenny Stills in traffic, and leads to dropping catchable balls.
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  3. -33
    Nublar7's Avatar
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    Jurassic World2013 Dolphins Logo
    https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/stat...95004099391488

    Kicking over rocks on Josh Gordon in advance of tomorrow. An exec & a scout used same word: "Overhyped". Said he'd have gone R5-7 in April.

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  4. -34
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    Someone with natural talent with an attitude? Who would think.
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  5. -35
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    A couple of points/advantages I would like to make about the supplemental draft that I haven't seen brought up before. Both are obvious but sometimes go overlooked.

    1. Draft picks are about getting value. It is widely accepted that most GMs will use a pick lower in the supp draft than they would have in the regular draft to get the same player. To me that equates to VALUE. If you have a need at a particular position (like WR for the fins) and you can get a 2nd rd value in the 3rd rd or 3rd rd value in the 4th, then you are using the pick at max value.

    2. Normally in a regular draft a traded pick in this years draft is worth a pick in next years draft one round better (ex if we wanted someones 3rd rd pick this year we would probably have to give up next years 2nd). The obvious reason for this is a combination of two things, A) a player that I draft this year is going to have a full year of experience to help my team before I use that same pick next year, and B) the team wanting the pick is the team asking/needing the trade.

    Now taking those two concepts into consideration I feel that the supplemental draft is a GREAT way to get maximum value out of your picks. Using a pick now for a player that you would be using a round higher to draft next year not only gives you a free year of NFL experience, but you get the player at a discount/round earlier. I and others have discussed how the player will be coming in late and will have less time to get up to speed since he has already missed all the minicamps, but actually we are getting him earlier not later.


    Obviously the GM has to be comfortable with the player and know enough about him that he can be relatively sure the reason he is coming out early is not going to be a lasting issue such as bad attitude or drug abuse, or wife beater etc, but if all checks out I see the supp draft as a great way to gain max value out of your picks.

    The other issue is how to insure that you have a way to stash the player on the 53, b/c most likely he will get stolen if you PS him. This might be a bigger issue with us, seeing as we already have several WRs headed in that direction.
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  6. -36
    hooshoops's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KTOWNFINFAN View Post
    A couple of points/advantages I would like to make about the supplemental draft that I haven't seen brought up before. Both are obvious but sometimes go overlooked.

    1. Draft picks are about getting value. It is widely accepted that most GMs will use a pick lower in the supp draft than they would have in the regular draft to get the same player. To me that equates to VALUE. If you have a need at a particular position (like WR for the fins) and you can get a 2nd rd value in the 3rd rd or 3rd rd value in the 4th, then you are using the pick at max value.

    2. Normally in a regular draft a traded pick in this years draft is worth a pick in next years draft one round better (ex if we wanted someones 3rd rd pick this year we would probably have to give up next years 2nd). The obvious reason for this is a combination of two things, A) a player that I draft this year is going to have a full year of experience to help my team before I use that same pick next year, and B) the team wanting the pick is the team asking/needing the trade.

    Now taking those two concepts into consideration I feel that the supplemental draft is a GREAT way to get maximum value out of your picks. Using a pick now for a player that you would be using a round higher to draft next year not only gives you a free year of NFL experience, but you get the player at a discount/round earlier. I and others have discussed how the player will be coming in late and will have less time to get up to speed since he has already missed all the minicamps, but actually we are getting him earlier not later.


    Obviously the GM has to be comfortable with the player and know enough about him that he can be relatively sure the reason he is coming out early is not going to be a lasting issue such as bad attitude or drug abuse, or wife beater etc, but if all checks out I see the supp draft as a great way to gain max value out of your picks.

    The other issue is how to insure that you have a way to stash the player on the 53, b/c most likely he will get stolen if you PS him. This might be a bigger issue with us, seeing as we already have several WRs headed in that direction.
    i wish more people around here understood that...
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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  7. -37
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    I would NOT put a day two pick on this kid. Those picks are way too valuable. Day 3, and I can live with it.

    When Manny Wright came out, there was alot of talk about his talent, and Miami got him for a fifth. The kid had some natural talent and was a colossal bust. Say whatever you want, but supplemental picks typically have baggage (Bernie Kosar being a huge exception). Baggage drops you some.

    You have a kid with mediocre production, who hasn't played in two years, who has been kicked out of one school and never played at the other before ending up in the supplemental draft. He has a Manny Wright feel to him. I'd say a fifth is about right. If Ireland thinks he is top shelf and expends a fourth on him, I would be ok with it. But a day two pick on this kid seems like a panic reach.
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  8. -38
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    It's true that Supplemental picks generally have baggage. But if you really look over the last 20 years of Supplemental drafts, the players tend to be UNDER rated...not the other way around.

    Jamal Williams is among the best nose tackles I've seen and he started 138 games for the Chargers. Mike Wahle was a fixture at tackle and guard for the Green Bay Packers, won a championship, and also started 138 games. You would think you'd have to pay 1st round picks to get that kind of player. But instead, they were drafted with 2nd round picks. The other two guys who were drafted in the 2nd round? Darren Mickell started 61 games at defensive end over his 9 year career. The only 2nd round bust was RB Tony Hollings.

    Fast forward to the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds, where guys like Tito Wooten (47 starts), John Davis (26 starts), Jared Gaither (33 starts) and Milford Brown (47 starts) all end up pretty successful relative to draft position. With former 4th rounder Paul Oliver tossing in 12 starts of his own, with a lot more games as a sub package player, the only guys you can truly deem busts from the 4th through 6th rounds are J'Juan Cherry (4th round) and Manny Wright (5th round).

    I left out the 3rd and 7th rounds but not necessarily because they're awful. Ahmad Brooks was taken in the 3rd round and he's a starter on one of the best defenses in football. Josh Price-Brent was taken in the 7th round and he hasn't started any games but he's played in 21 games in the two years since he was drafted, accounting for almost 400 defensive snaps with positive grades from PFF in both seasons, and I call that pretty excellent value for a measly 7th round pick, most of which end up off the roster let alone active on game day and playing.

    Darren Benson and Jeremy Jarmon have been busts from the 3rd round. Harvey Unga was taken with a measly 7th rounder and hasn't played or done anything. Terrelle Pryor was taken 3rd round by the Raiders in a fit of the usual Raiders insanity, but you can hardly call him a bust yet as he's only been in the league one year.

    Was Dave Brown a 1st round QB bust in the Supplemental Draft? Sure. But so were Dave Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. 1st round busts happen at that position in the regular draft as easily as the Supplemental Draft. If you consider some of the other 1st round QBs taken in the Supplemental Draft between Timm Rosenbach, Steve Walsh, Dave Brown and Bernie Kosar, those percentages seem to almost exactly approximate the percentages you see in the 1st round of the regular Draft at that position.

    So let's recap.

    1st Round - 1 Bust, 0 Rotational, 0 Starter, 0 Good Player
    2nd Round - 1 Bust, 0 Rotational, 1 Starter, 2 Good Player (Jamal Williams, Mike Wahle)
    3rd Round - 1 Bust, 1 Rotational, 1 Starter, 0 Good Player
    4th Round - 1 Bust, 1 Rotational, 0 Starter, 1 Good Player (Tito Wooten)
    5th Round - 1 Bust, 0 Rotational, 1 Starter, 1 Good Player (Jared Gaither)
    6th Round - 0 Bust, 0 Rotational, 1 Starter, 0 Good Player
    7th Round - 1 Bust, 1 Rotational, 0 Starter, 0 Good Player

    I'm getting 50 game OL starters in the 6th round, starting left tackles in the 5th round, 50 game DB starters in the 4th round, and Ring of Honor type players in the 2nd round? Yeah, I'm going to be interested in the Supplemental Draft.
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  9. -39
    CedarPhin's Avatar
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    Walsh was a pretty decent backup. Kosar did well.
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  10. -40
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CedarPhin View Post
    Walsh was a pretty decent backup. Kosar did well.
    Over that era of QB drafting, take 4 guys in the 1st round, you get 1 guy that's good (Kosar, 108 starts, 82 PR), another guy that's a long term backup (Walsh, 38 starts, 66 PR), another guy that starts a lot (Brown, 60 starts, 68 PR), and one who busts out of the league quickly (Rosenbach, 20 starts, 66 PR)...that's pretty much almost exactly average for that era. So I'm not sure someone can tell me that Supplemental QBs have worse than normal success relative to draft position.
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