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The probability was quite different. The Dolphins were at the time 72% likely to win the game.
In fact, had the Dolphins ran the ball twice, both for zero yards, milked the clock down to the two-minute warning as one would expect (assuming Buffalo didn't use any time-outs), and punted the ball into the end zone, the Dolphins' probability of wining the game would've gone down from 72% to 67%, rather than the 72% to 33% shift that actually happened.