ok...some things that i believe are coming to fruition as we get closer and closer to the draft...
wouldn't surprise me if the top 3 ot's in the class joeckel fisher and johnson are all gone in the top 6 picks...the pass rush class is struggling in workouts and the combine with their explosion numbers and speed...at worse i think they're all gone top 8...
i have no idea why draft people think that ezekial ansah and bjoern werner are good conversion 34 olb fits...they're 43 de's all the way...ansahs gonna get overdrafted given his measurables relative to the rest of the pass rush class despite having average pass rush tools and arsenal...werner i'm hearing more pick 20-30 range many questions about his pass rush upside and impact at the next level which i agree with...
jarvis jones i guess we now know why he didn't work out at the combine...would have pulled a 5.0 40...i'm not sure why people are so high on this kid i see average explosion tools and rush arsenal here to me given his size and the fact that i don't believe he is a win against nfl tackles guy on the edge his best fit is as a sam backer in a 43...there i think he can make hay as a stand up blitzer on overload sets etc...i don't think he's a good 34 olb fit nor would i draft him as such...but the problem i see is at that 5 second 40 time teams will scheme to attack him in coverage...plus i don't know that i have seen him carry a lot of coverage down the field so that would be a projection imo...bottom line is he's not a top half of round 1 prospect and to me he's overrated...this isn't von miller folks...not by a long shot...add in the medical and i wouldn't look at him in the top 20...
i think the tennessee wr rogers is an interesting mid round slot value wr...only 182 lbs on a slight frame but runs in the high 4.4's...if i was looking for a slot with some big play potential and upside i'd burn a mid round pick on that kid...pretty good route runner seems like he plays smart...
more and more the knock i keep hearing on cordarelle patterson is he's not a guy that you want to read coverage and run routes accordingly...ie not an option route system wr...i concur...pass...despite the upside...i hear also his interviews have been underwhelming
i've also come around on the tavon austin at pick 12 train...if they go that route i don't have a problem with it...the possibilities with that kid who plays bigger than 176 lbs and tougher are pretty endless...serious explosion athlete...ideally you'd want a couple inches taller and 20 more lbs but given the kids clean off the field and the fact the top of this draft class is in some ways underwhelming i'd like to have that mismatch in the slot etc...this kids a playmaker
damontre moore runs a pretty much 5.0 40 at the combine and then skips the run at his pro day??? yikes...i guess the kid likes his stock being down
look for matt barkley to rise up draft boards once he throws at his pro day...that kids winning too much in the meeting room and on the white board for him to not be a fast riser here soon...him and geno smith both likely to come off in front of our pick...nfl networks just slow to figure it out...
Damontre Moore is scheduled to run the 40 again prior to the draft.
I agree with Werner not being a fit for a 3-4 linebacker, but I believe Ansah could be. He rushes the passer better from a 2-point stance already and has a lot of experience playing that technique. He confirmed this notion at the combine performing in linebacker drills. I've always made the comparision with Willie McGinnest.... similar type of athlete/player.
Let's try not to add a tenth to Jarvis Jones' 40 yard dash time... 4.92 is bad enough, although some scouts had him in the 4.8 range. People are high on him because he was one of the most dominant defensive players in college football who consistently made plays, forced turnovers, stepped up and changed the momentum of games for his team when they needed it. Terrell Suggs ran a 4.84....just sayin.
However, I think it's unwise to completely disregard the fact that Jones simply doesn't test as an elite athlete, combined with the risk that spinal stenosis brings. I've dropped him from #3 on my board to #25.
mayock had jones at close to 5.0 we all know that pro day times are notoriously faster than combine ones...he's a 5.0 guy to me but his instincts probably make up for .2 i'd say...but that isn't gonna help much in coverage...and he should have never been #3 on your board in the first place...
as for ansah we'll agree to disagree...that's a 43 end all the way to me...if detroit doesn't take him at #5 which i don't think they will given the massive tackle need they have now i don't think a now 34 team like the browns will either...no matter what though given his rush tools that kids getting overdrafted on measurables...
which all keeps bringing me back to mingo...the most explosive and burst athlete with a hand in the dirt rusher in this class...
Jarvis Jones has been one of the top 3 players on a lot of boards for a long time for a reason. When you dominate like he did in the SEC for the past 2 years, its well deserved.
Mingo's explosiveness and athletic ability still didn't allow him to produce like he should have, or prevent him from being a liability on the field for LSU. There's obviously upside there, but the chances of him ever achieving it is a risk in itself.
There's a good chance that Jones is just one of those players that maxed out in college, therefore not a lot of room for upside. He's certainly not Von Miller athletically, but as a pass rusher and playmaker, he had the same impact in college.
Fact is, Mingo could be the best athlete to ever enter the draft, but it still doesn't change the fact that he failed to even distinguish himself as the best DE on his own team at any point during his career. Jarvis Jones never lost his starting job, he has that going for him.
Here's his interview at the Pro Day. Einstein, he may not be, but I don't think he's either dumb or incapable of absorbing an NFL offensive system.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
might as well add this in my thread up here...
my all overrated/no thanks list...
qb geno smith ( glad i'm not looking for a qb)
de ezekial ansah (pass rush tools do not validate the pick he commands)
cb xavier rhodes ( cover 2 press corner...too finesse for my taste)
solb jarvis jones (way overrated...average rush tools as a 34 olb...not a win rusher against nfl tackles...add slow to boot...43 sam backer imo)
de bjoern werner (not a win pass rusher at the next level imo)
de damontre moore (slow...nothing he does wows you....gets off the ball average...strength issues a major concern)
wr deandre hopkins ( i think he's an underneath and intermediate wr only in the pros)
qb ryan nassib (another guy i'm glad i don't need a qb)
qb ej manuel (can't read a defense...easy reads qb...flavor of the times likely read option guy...no thanks)
cb jamar taylor (top 50 pick??? yeah no...i think he's best in off coverages)
ilb kevin minter (2 down backer in the pros in the 1st round??? hell no)
cb blidi wreh wilson (good tools but too raw at this stage imo)
ilb manti teo (way overrated...slow...this is like laurinitus imo...)
qb tyler bray (big arm...bad brain)
de corey lemonier (another guy that doesn't wow you with anything...motor runs very hot and cold can turn it off on you for long periods)
te gavin escobar (slow...i like him more than egnew but that's about the extent of it)
wr terrence williams (struggles to get off press finesse wr...not as fast as i thought...more a 3rd round value and i like other wrs more)
de sam montgomery (this is jamaal anderson as a pass rusher on the edge...little upside)
s tj mcdonald (stiff...bad angles...exploited in coverage)
wr marquise goodwin (raw raw raw...runs 3 routes pretty much with no polish...gonna wait on him a while folks if he ever helps you)
rb/slot wr denard robinson (guy without a position in the pros...no polish for the slot...a projection...pass)
lb zavier gooden (explosive but no instincts at lb)
wr kobi hamilton (long strider build up speed guy...ted ginn in a bigger body)
wr chris harper (like the rac potential don't like that the guy can't get off coverage or separate)
qb landry jones (ha ha...hell no)
te nick kasa (worst blocking big body te i've seen since that kid we cut that played hoops in camp the white kid on hard knocks...)
cb will davis (showed nothing senior bowl week...nothing)
te dion sims (another slow te that can't get down the seam and is slow on tape...in line i might be down with it late but not what we need down the field for sure)
olb michael buchanan (he's not a 43 de...and he's not a win pass rusher period)
de william gholston ( big bag of hype...looks like tarzan plays like jane)
te joseph fauria (michael egnew soft)
also i'm working on a list of if i was the gm miami targets for each pick in the first 4 rounds...basically an updated target list...should have it together here shortly...some new names and maybe a few surprises...
Agree on Ansah and Rhodes. Moore improved up to 19 reps at his pro day.
you know fellas slimms got it right...carradines the best looking of true 43 de size pass rush prospect in this class...the more i looked the more obvious it was...that kids quite a talent
when you gonna throw up your big board like slimm did?
thats what I'm interested in seeing.