If we make no moves for WR in FA I trade up for Keenan
If we make no moves for WR in FA I trade up for Keenan
Hunter, Hartline, Bess, Matthews, Mike Wallace
Almost everyone believes the most value in the draft is in the 2nd round & 3rd round. This is false. After the Top-40 picks, the value doesn't change very much.
Because the same holds true every year. Everyone always gets hyped up over 2nd and 3rd round prospects. The truth always remains that the best prospects are at the top, and that the middle range extends past the 2nd round.
For example here is a list of the number of Probowlers by round from 2001 to 2009 (players who have made a pro bowl appearance):
2nd: 33 (*14 of them were selected between picks 33-40, at the top of the 2nd)
6th & 7th: 13
Total Pro Bowlers in Top 40 Picks: 98
Of the 2nd round pro bowlers, 14 of those pro bowlers were taken between picks 33 and 40.
So there were 98 pro bowlers taken in the top 40 picks, 19 pro bowlers taken between picks 41 and 64 of the 2nd round, 14 pro bowlers in the 3rd, 12 in the 4th,, and 10 in the 5th.
There isn't a huge difference between the middle to the end of the 2nd round through the 5th round, however there is a great imbalance towards the top of the draft. The Top 40 is where the real value of the draft is because here is where there's far better chances of securing players that are "difference makers"
It's better value to "trade up" to be within the top 40, and trade down in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to pick up as many picks in the latter part of the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds as you can, but its not worth it to trade down from those top 40 picks to stockpile 2nd and 3rd rounders. The caveat being, of course, to avoid the top 5 unless there is an elite super talent (because of the cost of trading up that high if the player doesn't hit - IE: what the redskins gave up for RG3, the Falcons for Julio Jones but even then you see it's worth it if your scouting department did their jobs.
Last edited by Pinkboy; 10-20-2012 at 05:48 AM.
Today successful NFL WR's tend to be bigger than they used to be. The heyday of the Marks Brothers and the Smurfs are long gone. Parcell's not wanting to draft a WR under 6'0 seemed a bit close-minded back then, but has become the norm. Steadman Bailey may be the second coming of Steve Smith, but guys like that are fewer and farther between. The small WR's seem to be more in the mold of Percy Harvin, Desean Jackson and yes, Randall Cobb. Guys who are more super-fast and super-quick athletes in space who you get the ball in a number of ways but you fear getting hit. The full time small WR like Steve Smith with the mass and strength to be durable, physical and effective seems to be rare these days.
The Dolphins are currently filling the role that Harvin/Jackson/Cobb fill with guys like Reggie Bush and eventually Lamar Miller. I don't see Ireland wanting to go against the prototype of big WR's to fill a role he is already filling with Bush and Miller. In the past a 6'1 WR was considered a big WR. These days the prototypical big WR's are 6'4 with large wingspans and strong hands. I see Ireland building a WR corps that provides a large target and RAC to help his young QB and the WCO. That said, he knows he needs at least one legitimate deep threat to loosen up the box for the run game.
Philbin wants guys that make the WCO easy. We have a decent OL and RB situation. We have our QB. We have a blank slate at WR--literally everyone is expendable and we need to build it from the ground up. Philbin will get the guys that fit his mold, and Ireland will insist on the prototype size and speed. Those are different criteria, making for a very demanding list of wants. Philbin was hired for his offense. Currently we have a lot of good pieces but a low scoring offense. If Philbin doesn't produce offense and wins, neither Philbin nor Ireland will be here for too many years. I fully expect WR's and pass rushers to be our focus in the next draft.
While Hard Knocks isn't a good view into the organization, it is a data point. It showed extreme patience for the prototype guys Roberto Wallace (6'4 and fast) even when their play clearly suggested otherwise. Similarly, big WR's (who could block) who had the intangibles Philbin holds highly, like Legadu Naanee, were given every opportunity to succeed despite their consistent underperforming. I don't think these things are coincidences. I fully expect the Miami Dolphins to take 2 WR's in the next draft with any marquee day 1 draft pick being at least 6'3.
I think Allen will be assessed individually, but from what I've seen thus far I expect that he will be one of our marquee options. The only question I see is whether his top speed is enough to open up the run game. If not, they will likely pair him with a burner.
I addressed the size issue in my above post responding to CK's post, so I will let that illustrate why I believe our marquee day 1 selection will be at least 6'3. I can see us taking a sub-6'3 receiver in the later rounds, but for that marquee #1 slot I do think Ireland will insist on at least 6'3.
I would like to draft a top prospect and sign a top free agent.
This league is about scoring points now.
Jay Fiedler can take his'n and lose to your'n.....or take your'n and lose to his'n.
I think your metrics illustrate what personnel guys always say--that there is a dropoff of talent at certain points. While it varies from draft to draft, often the 1-10'ish guys are substantially better prospects (e.g. higher ceilings) than the next 30'ish players. Often there are guys at the top of round 2 that do quite well. They play with a chip on their shoulders from day 1 because they maybe didn't have as high of a ceiling or weren't prototypical speed, or weren't premier positions. But after the first rounders and those high 2nds it often becomes a lot of projection. IMHO, some GM's are simply better at it than others, which is why you seem to see Pittsburgh cull stars from the 2nd-4th rounds while many teams seem to just draft bums. I think our 2nd and 3rd round picks in the upcoming draft will be very important. Let's hope Ireland makes wise choices.
Craig Bragg - 6'1"
Terrence Murphy - 6'1"
Cory Rodgers - 6'
Greg Jennings - 5'11"
James Jones - 6'1"
David Clowney - 6'0
Jordy Nelson - 6'3"
Brett Swain - 6'0"
Randall Cobb - 5'10
Which of these guys, besides Nelson, was considered "big" when he was drafted? Even if you want to argue 6'1" was considered big in 2005 (which is ridiculous), the trend hasn't changed. Nelson is the exception, not Cobb.
I think Marqise Lee is the dream receiver for Philbin's offense, not Keenan Allen.