"You may think that you are some kind of god to these people. But we both know what you really are."
"What's that? A criminal?"
"Worse. A politician."
Source: Under The Dome
This is the best place to get election polling that's been accurate the last 2 elections.
Nate silver used to do baseball stats and is a fricking genius at this stuff. He was with in .3% last election.
The president still has a Elect collage lead but Romney has drawn about even in the popular vote.
"fundamentals"--factors such as the state of the economy, the role of foreign wars and whether the incumbent president is running. At best, polls represent a snapshot of the electorate on a given day, rather than a forecast of the eventual outcome.
Yet even this modest view has its problems. A snapshot may be seen as worthless if it is clear that the picture must eventually change. In four of the last five presidential elections, the eventual popular vote winner has trailed in the polls at some point, often by a substantial margin. Moreover, these changes are often predictable, as shifts usually move in the direction suggested by forecasts based on readings of "bread and peace": the state of the economy and U.S. standing abroad.
Polling methodology problems. Pollsters also face statistical modeling challenges.
"Likely voters." Pollsters attempt to survey the subset of the population that will vote on election day, rather than the entire adult population. (This makes sense, given that these polls are geared toward an election and not an abstract representation of the public's preference, such as presidential job approval ratings.) Some polls survey only registered voters, while others will ask a series of questions designed to screen out those who are not deemed 'likely voters':
--Misapplied technique? These screening techniques help give a more accurate picture of the electorate in polls conducted shortly before election day. However, polls with "likely voter screens" portray a very volatile electorate, with levels of fluctuation that appear unrealistic. Crucially, it is more difficult to predict likely voters. There is some evidence to suggest that likely-voter screens, in particular, may actually make early polls less accurate.
--Turnout guesswork. Turnout is not easy to predict, even in principle. For example, anecdotal reports suggest that Barack Obama's campaign has a large advantage in the 'ground game' of door-to-door canvassing (in terms of measurable campaign activity such as money invested, volunteers enlisted, and field offices opened). This could conceivably translate into a higher Democratic turnout than models based on past elections predict.
Undecided voters. In an apparent paradox, polls move a great deal over the course of the campaign but usually claim that only a small segment of the population is "undecided." Yet if 85% to 95% of the electorate has already "decided," then early polls should track the November results closely--and they do not. If pollsters' estimates of undecided voters early in the election campaign were meaningful, then the race would essentially be over when one candidate's lead exceeds the remaining number of undecided voters. This paradox has two main causes:
-Pollsters' questions. Aiming for a momentary snapshot, pollsters almost always ask respondents whom they would vote for "if the election were held today." Many also use a follow-up probe to see if those who say they are unsure "lean" in a particular direction.
Guess what happens after the election???????
"Politics is the Art of Looking for Trouble, Finding it Everywhere, Diagnosing it Incorrectly, and Applying the Wrong Remedies"
Between early voting, absentee ballots, and a more partisan electorate, the actual decision-making in voting is more or less over. It is all about turnout at this point.
Tell that to the millions of people who kept their jobs from the Auto Bail out that.
The millions of people who got to keep their houses under the housing plan.
Or the millions of teachers, firefighters, police officers that kept their job because of the stimulus plan.
The millions of families that were able to feed their kids because of the unemployment benefit extensions.
The millions of small business that got tax breaks to provide health insurance to their employees.
I can list hundreds of reasons why things have changed under Obama, but why bother, you have access to the internet just like I do, it's so simple to keep yourself inform, but WTF ever. Nevermind.. I wonder what kind of ****ing bubble you people live IN. 2011 congress was the most active congress in the history of this country under democrat control. Question how many members are in the House ? Do you even know that ? How about the Senate? Do you know that? What is reconciliation ? What is a filibuster? Without during a Google search do you know any of these answers? I bet you don't!
2011 Congress Under Democrat Control The most active congress in the history of this country.
10. Passing Credit Card Reform (CARD Act)
Protects Americans from unfair and misleading credit card practices.
9. Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act
Ensures that all workers in America are paid what they deserve, regardless of race, gender, or age.
8. Supreme Court Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan
President Obama nominated and the Senate confirmed Associate Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court
7. Student Loan Reform
Helps make college more affordable for students and families.
6. Wall Street Reform
Holds Wall Street accountable, ends "too big to fail" bailouts, and enacts the strongest consumer protections in history.
5. The New START Treaty
Keeps America safe and strengthens our global leadership on nuclear weapons issues.
4. ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ Repeal
Ends the discriminatory policy preventing gays and lesbians from serving in America’s armed forces.
3. Ending combat operations in Iraq
Effectively ends Operation Iraqi Freedom and withdraws 100,000 troops.
2. The Recovery Act
Saves and creates millions of jobs, investing unprecedented resources in building a new foundation for our country, and preventing a second Great Depression.
1. The Affordable Care Act
Reforms our country’s broken health care system by holding insurance companies accountable, lowering costs, ensuring greater choice, and improving the quality of care for all Americans.
Since the republicans took over the house PLEASE TELL ME ONE LEGISLATION THEY HAVE PASSED TO MATCH ANYONE OF THOSE I LISTED TO HELP THE NORMAL AMERICAN. NAME ME JUST ONE. JUST ****ING ONE. ALL THEY HAVE DONE IS ABORTION AND VOTER SUPPRESSION THAT'S IT.
Last edited by CRAZYDOLFAN305; 10-26-2012 at 03:50 PM.