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Thread: Presidential Polls Counter Romney Surge Myth

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    BAMAPHIN 22's Avatar
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    Icon 26 Politics Presidential Polls Counter Romney Surge Myth

    [QUOTE]New polls released on Wednesday and Thursday continue to show President Barack Obama holding narrow leads in a handful of critical battleground states, but running within a whisker of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney nationwide.

    While Romney gained significantly in the wake of the first presidential debate in early October, the lack of a continuing trend over the past two weeks helps counter a theme in some campaign coverage that Romney's support continues to "surge" nationwide.

    The most recent updates of the seven daily national tracking polls continue to split in terms of which candidate holds the nominal lead, ranging from a 4 percentage-point lead for Romney on the Rasmussen Reports automated tracking to a 3 point Obama advantage on the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll.
    [QUOTE]






    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/presidential-polls-romney-surge_n_2016066.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
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    LouPhinFan's Avatar
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    So basically its a dead even heat and a few thousand undecided voters in the state of Ohio are going to decide who wins....
    Insert pithy saying here.

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    Statler Waldorf's Avatar
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    The "Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll"? So basically they had to find the most obscure poll they could just to find one that had Obama leading. There have been 35 polls conducted this week, Obama is leading in 4 of them, Romney is either leading or tied in the other 31, ties always go to the challenger. The AP now has it 47-47 percent between the two candidates with female voters, Romney is up significantly with independent voters, Republicans are leading the enthusiasm polls 73-68 percent, no challenger has ever lost after having the numbers Romney has now this late in the game, this thing is over.
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    Dolphins9954's Avatar
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    I think we might have another Bush/Gore with Romney taking the popular vote and Obama winning the EC.





    "Politics is the Art of Looking for Trouble, Finding it Everywhere, Diagnosing it Incorrectly, and Applying the Wrong Remedies"
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    Statler Waldorf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphins9954 View Post
    I think we might have another Bush/Gore with Romney taking the popular vote and Obama winning the EC.

    It's possible I suppose, but Romney is a lot farther ahead in the popular vote than Gore was so I think he'll win both. Here's an interesting scenario, it's actually possible to have a 269-269 electoral tie this year, if that happens then the House elects the President and the Senate elects the Vice President, a Romney/Biden administration would be interesting to watch for four years : -)
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    JackFinfan's Avatar
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    So, I've been wondering. Are all these polls only contacting people with landlines? Personally, I don't have a landline, and I'd guess around 90% of my friends (under 30 years old) only use their cell phones. One would think that only sampling individuals with landlines would skew the results slightly to the right.
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    Statler Waldorf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackFinfan View Post
    So, I've been wondering. Are all these polls only contacting people with landlines? Personally, I don't have a landline, and I'd guess around 90% of my friends (under 30 years old) only use their cell phones. One would think that only sampling individuals with landlines would skew the results slightly to the right.
    I suppose it’s possible but I really don’t think the big names like Rasmussen and Gallup would commit such an oversight. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008, hitting the final outcome dead on and I’d say a lot of people didn’t have landlines in 2008 either, I know I didn’t.
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    CRAZYDOLFAN305's Avatar
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    I get the biggest joy coming on this site and seeing you conservatives really believing you are going to win this election. LMAO. Yea, we are going back to the exact same policy that brought this country on the brink of a great depression. You people need your head's examine.
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    Cam Wake 91
    I dont have a dog in the fight. Im just looking forward to the amount of mad Im gonna see all over the place, including this board, regardless of who wins.




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    Quote Originally Posted by tylerdolphin View Post
    I dont have a dog in the fight. Im just looking forward to the amount of mad Im gonna see all over the place, including this board, regardless of who wins.
    Must be nice to be part of the 1%, congrats. I mean that as a compliment.
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