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Thread: 5 days out, post your predictions here

  1. -21
    JackFinfan's Avatar
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    I find it interesting that a couple people have Obama winning Virginia, but not Iowa. I feel like Obama's doing much better in Iowa.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buddy View Post
    Very big fan of Rasmussen and Gallup, not a fan at all of polls using 2008 turnout as basis for 2012. I guess that we will find out who is correct soon enough.

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    Rasmussen was the most consistently inaccurate and the most biased poll in the last election
    "As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand."
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    Re: 5 days out, post your predictions here

    Quote Originally Posted by spydertl79 View Post
    Rasmussen was the most consistently inaccurate and the most biased poll in the last election
    Where did you hear that, MSNBC? Rasmussen and Gallup were within 1/2% on their final projections in 2008 if I remember right. Gallup and Rasmussen have been consistently right more than most all of the others. I think all of the polls are biased, statistics say what you want them to say to some degree. Nonetheless, i have mute confidence in these two than the rest. As i said, we shall see soon enough.

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  4. -24
    trojanma's Avatar
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    2013 Dolphins LogoTannehill 17Dolphins Homer
    Quote Originally Posted by JackFinfan View Post
    I find it interesting that a couple people have Obama winning Virginia, but not Iowa. I feel like Obama's doing much better in Iowa.
    I agree with this.
    I think Virginia is tucked away for Romney at this point.

    I have it as razor close 271-267 for Obama
    I actually think Romney wins the popular vote as democratic voter apathy will result in huge wins for Romney in the sout.

    I am pretty confident Obama takes Ohio where his Union/Manufacturing folks will ride him to the win.
    I have Wisconsin in an upset for Romney. The state seems to be fading towards towards the GOP also getting a boost with the Ryan ticket.
    Though Obama holds Iowa for the win.
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  5. -25
    spydertl79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buddy View Post
    Where did you hear that, MSNBC? Rasmussen and Gallup were within 1/2% on their final projections in 2008 if I remember right. Gallup and Rasmussen have been consistently right more than most all of the others. I think all of the polls are biased, statistics say what you want them to say to some degree. Nonetheless, i have mute confidence in these two than the rest. As i said, we shall see soon enough.

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    Nate Silver and the staff from five thirty eight ran a statistical analysis on every poll in the 2010 election and found an average 4% bias in favor of Republicans.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/
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  6. -26
    Buddy's Avatar
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    Re: 5 days out, post your predictions here

    Quote Originally Posted by spydertl79 View Post
    Nate Silver and the staff from five thirty eight ran a statistical analysis on every poll in the 2010 election and found an average 4% bias in favor of Republicans.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/
    I have found 538 to be biased to the left but their criteria in this situation seems to be fairly straight forward. A few of the other sites had Rasmussen as the most accurate in the 2008 election. I believe that guessing voter turnout proportions is the key and no one really "knows" until election day who is going to show up. Either way, they all seem to converge as the election nears and they are all moving toward a dead heat nationally. Sandy has thrown a huge monkey wrench into this election...who knows what ifs going to happen at this point. It should be interesting to say the least.

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  7. -27
    Scout Team

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    I predict that the liberal media will pretty much guarantee that Obama has won the election way before people start voting, almost as if to discourage republicans from bothering to go to the polls. Wait, nevermind, that is already happening.

    I have no idea who is really going to win this thing but i do think it is going to be a close race. I don't want to predict a voting conspiracy, with Obama winning with suspicious things going on at the polls, with Sandy and the UN "monitoring" the UNITED STATES election. So, I will just say that I hope the best man wins, the man who can turn this economy around and doesn't have an alternative agenda to turn this country into a socialist regime.
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  8. -28
    Locke's Avatar
    They looked like strong hands.

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    And here I was, actually being objective with my map. Then I see maps with people saying Romney wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which goes counter to pretty much everything most polls have said up until now. Objectivity is a lost art...

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  9. -29
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    Re: 5 days out, post your predictions here

    Quote Originally Posted by Locke View Post
    And here I was, actually being objective with my map. Then I see maps with people saying Romney wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which goes counter to pretty much everything most polls have said up until now. Objectivity is a lost art...
    I am being objective, I just believe that 4 toss-up states will go to Romney and not to Obama. Michigan is really the only reach...Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado have as good or better chance of being red as they do blue. If i swapped out Michigan with Ohio, would you feel better?

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  10. -30
    Locke's Avatar
    They looked like strong hands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buddy View Post
    I am being objective, I just believe that 4 toss-up states will go to Romney and not to Obama. Michigan is really the only reach...Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado have as good or better chance of being red as they do blue. If i swapped out Michigan with Ohio, would you feel better?

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    The auto bailouts have all but given Obama Wisconsin, Michigan, and most likely Ohio. All the polls reflect this. Why would you give them to Romney, other than sheer hope...?
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