It all depends on the economy in 2016. This recovery sucks at best. The unemployment rate just went back up, personal wealth is at all time lows and credit debt at all time highs. Foreclosers are still rampant and more people are on welfare than ever. Fiscal and monetary polices are horrible and will continue to be. And let's not forget our debt and the Euro/debt crisis too. I don't forsee a robost recovery anytime soon. If anything it will get worse. Which IMO could bring back the failure that is the GOP. I agree that demographics are changing and the GOP will tweak some of their stances. They'll just put up a better salesman for their crap policies. Let's not forget the Dems were in this exact same position in 2004. They looked just as pitiful as the GOP today. But 4 more years of a crap economy and crap president turned things around fast. My point is that things could easily end up for the worse the next for years and the cycle of exchanging tweedle dee for tweedle dum is a strong possibility.
I believe that you are right about the economy not recovering well, in fact, I see a lot of signs pointing to a full-blown depression coming. We need to cut the spending drastically - about 20 to 30%-and flatten the tax rates while eliminating deductions and especially loopholes. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is on corporations and rich people if they don't pay it. That is what people don't understand...these people have teams of very smart lawyers and such planning years in advance to hide money and circumvent taxes. It is smart business and they just work within the circumstances they are given. Nonetheless, the Republicans should have an opportunity in 2016 to take the presidency and the Congress in 2014 if the economy doesn't get any better or gets worse as I suspect. With that opportunity, they need to all but forget social issues as they will not matter at all if the country collapses. Worrying about social issues now is like icing a cake without even mixing or cooking the batter.