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Thread: Eat Your Crow Here

  1. -61
    CRAZYDOLFAN305's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=tfh_rules;1064489822]Congrats, Dems. Now get to work and fix the economy and deficit. No more blaming others - own it, and fix it.

    Just in case you don't get a chance to what I posted in a previous thread. Don't worry we got this.

    Of course it is, it mostly always does under a democratic president.

    According to McGraw-Hill’s (MHP) S&P Capital IQ, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 12.1% per year since 1901 when Democrats occupy the White House, compared with just 5.1% for the GOP.

    Likewise, gross domestic product has increased 4.2% each year since 1949 when Democrats run the executive branch, versus 2.6% under Republicans.

    Even corporate profits show a disparity: S&P 500 GAAP earnings per share climbed a median of 10.5% per year since 1936 during Democratic administrations, besting an 8.9% median advance under Republicans, S&P said.

    Due to their “tax-and-spend” reputation, investors expect Democratic administrations to underperform Republican ones and be “poison to any portfolio,” Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, wrote in a note. “History shows the opposite to be true, however.”

    The best stretch of market performance since 1900 occurred in 1993-2000 under Bill Clinton, who saw the S&P 500 rally an average of 19.9% per year during his presidency, S&P said.

    As strange as it may sound, diehard Republicans believe that President Barack Obama’s tenure has been disastrous to U.S. business. Stock market returns so far during his tenure tell another story. A recent Reuters article detailed that the S&P 500 is up some 74% since Obama took office in late January 2009. But it is somewhat surprising to learn that this is the strongest first-term performance since Dwight Eisenhower served his first term back in the 1950s.

    Truman was ranked the highest and happens to be a Democrat. Truman’s tenure saw a budget surplus, reduction in national debt and a record-low unemployment rate of 4%. The second spot also went to a Democrat: John F. Kennedy, who was followed by Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson.

    Now Carter’s rank as second last as he served during the difficult economic environment in the 1970s. But since he was the sitting president, I'm not excusing him.

    And I am completely aware The Federal Reserve and other politicians in Congress certainly pulled together to help save the economy from financial ruin at the height of the credit crisis.

    As the historical record shows, from economic growth and job creation to stock market performance and just about every other indicator of the health of American capitalism, the modern U.S. economy has almost always done better under Democratic presidents. Despite GOP mythology to the contrary, America generally gained more jobs and grew faster when taxes were higher (even much higher) and income inequality lower.

    7250297246_f3276661f9.jpg

    3390419772_0057ba6bd2.jpg
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  2. -62
    CRAZYDOLFAN305's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WadeCounty1231 View Post
    all the Rasmussen are the only polls that matter and all else are biased people owe a huge im sorry to Nate Silver and company, thats for sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by LandShark13 View Post
    Hmmmm time for you to pick a good ol'e red state team =)
    This chart by Rafa Irizarry at Simply Statistics pretty much sums up the amount of egg on the faces of anyone who questioned Nate Silver’s prediction that President Obama had a greater than 90 percent chance of winning reelection on Tuesday night. By and large, you’ll notice, Silver’s predicted chances of victory in any given state also align nicely with the percentage vote the president received in each state. The bottom line: True data analysis doesn't care about politics, it cares about being correct.

    It’s worth mentioning that Silver wasn’t the only statistician to perfectly predict the presidential race, either. In terms of Electoral College votes, Simon Jackman of Pollster did so, as did Josh Putnam of Davidson University. Save for Florida, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium fared very well, too, and actually nailed the popular vote split. Slate has a nice interactive chart showing how various statisticians and pundits fared in their predictions; there certainly are more predictions and models floating around that haven’t been included.

    The important takeaway, however, is that the people who nailed the outcome didn’t achieve their results by cherry-picking data that served their political interests. They did it because they’re professional statisticians whose success depends on accurately predicting the outcomes of events, not on cheerleading for the outcome they might personally desire or that will drive the highest ratings. Even if the data they’re working with is somewhat biased — as some individuals and organizations suggested to me is the case — the science comes in being able to take the data sources for what they are and accurately weigh their relevancy.

    In business, this is the shift in thinking that’s driving the movement toward big data and advanced analytics. Forward-thinking companies want to use data to make the right decisions, not to back up their predetermined decisions based largely on gut instinct. But there’s an unprecedented amount of data at their disposal — some good, some bad — which is why data scientists who can figure out what sources to use and how to use them are in such high demand right now.

    So in 2014 and and 2016, pollsters are going to keep polling, statisticians are going to keep analyzing those polls (and whatever other factors they choose to include) and, maybe, pundits and the media will pay some attention to what they’re saying. Probabilities aren’t promises etched in stone, and a vote either way can change the face of close elections like this one. But no one should be surprised when someone whose only job is to get it right does just that.

    http://bitly.com/Q07xwL

    And if they had just looked at the free U.S. Census, they would have been able to predict a huge Obama Victory as well.
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  3. -63
    Dolphins9954's Avatar
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    Hey Obama supporters especially the bot on top of me. It's all you now. Fail or succeed. No more blame games. I'm just going to sit back and watch.





    "Politics is the Art of Looking for Trouble, Finding it Everywhere, Diagnosing it Incorrectly, and Applying the Wrong Remedies"
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  4. -64
    Ilovemyfins4eva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphins9954 View Post
    Hey Obama supporters especially the bot on top of me. It's all you now. Fail or succeed. No more blame games. I'm just going to sit back and watch.
    im sure some ppl will place the blame on bush if the economy continues to tank, as im sure obama will also.
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  5. -65
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    He ate the crow today. Dick Morris graduated from the institute of misleading and absolute idiotic prediction University. As long as he keep telling people on fox what they want to hear, he will continue to get a check. Don't understand why they feel the need to lie to their viewers. But Oh Well.

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    irish fin fan's Avatar
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    Eat Your Crow Here

    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphins9954 View Post
    Hey Obama supporters especially the bot on top of me. It's all you now. Fail or succeed. No more blame games. I'm just going to sit back and watch.
    I agree, he has the 4 years which should be enough to get the country going again.

    However, the Republicans need to ditch their crazies. They have to get back to been a moderate party who is willing to work for the good of the country. Otherwise they have no chance of getting the moderate vote.
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    Quote Originally Posted by irish fin fan View Post
    I agree, he has the 4 years which should be enough to get the country going again.

    However, the Republicans need to ditch their crazies. They have to get back to been a moderate party who is willing to work for the good of the country. Otherwise they have no chance of getting the moderate vote.
    The last 4 years should have been enough.
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  8. -68
    Locke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphins9954 View Post
    The last 4 years should have been enough.
    Come on 9954, normally you're ridiculously reasonable. You expect anyone to turn around an economy as bad as ours in 2008 in 4 years? No one could do that, period...

    If I could take your pain and frame it, and hang it on my wall,
    maybe you would never have to hurt again...

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  9. -69
    Dolphins9954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Locke View Post
    Come on 9954, normally you're ridiculously reasonable. You expect anyone to turn around an economy as bad as ours in 2008 in 4 years? No one could do that, period...

    I think that 4 years is plenty of time to judge the policies and direction. Obama's approach to the economy has been the same bailout, print, spend and fiscally insane policies as Bush. There really wasn't a different approach at all besides rhetoric . I don't see it getting better anytime soon. Hell just in the last week unemployment went back up and the market took a nose dive today. Don't think for a second this economy is sound. It could easily get worse.
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  10. -70
    Ilovemyfins4eva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphins9954 View Post
    I think that 4 years is plenty of time to judge the policies and direction. Obama's approach to the economy has been the same bailout, print, spend and fiscally insane policies as Bush. There really wasn't a different approach at all besides rhetoric . I don't see it getting better anytime soon. Hell just in the last week unemployment went back up and the market took a nose dive today. Don't think for a second this economy is sound. It could easily get worse.
    yup big time dive, but dont worry mr bernanke is right there to print money so fools will actually believe the market is doing well due to the fundamentals of the economy, when in reality the economy sucks, and the only reason the major indexes are where they r currently is bc of '' QE INFINITY''
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