Full disclosure: I am a stoner.
Which fulfilling that stereotype absolutely is so harmful. Cause there actually is several policies of his that are not good and should be challenged. But its stuff like you wrote that take legitimate complaints and lump them in with bigoted psycho babble. Which sucks.
The way it works now, if the forecasts are accurate, Bush is stamped as even more inept, Obama moves way up the reputation ladder, and 2016 looks something like 2000, an open race with Democrats at small foundational advantage before candidate-to-candidate specifics enter the equation. If it's Hillary, she would figure to own more strength among whites than Obama, who always trailed Hillary in the white working class vote during the 2008 primaries, notably in par 5 states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Hillary lost, of course, due to Obama's team recognizing the delegate potential in par 3 primaries and caucuses, ones that Hillary's strategists all but ignored.
The question would be Hillary's standing among Hispanics and blacks compared to Obama, in turnout and percentage. She seemingly would have a more difficult path to 50+% approval rating, and therefore 50+% of the vote. I'm sure many analysts would assert Hillary could shove the women's vote to 54% of the total, but that's pushing it, IMO. It's fairly well established that women are 51% in midterms and 53% in general elections. I can't foresee a change.
Republicans seemingly would need an edge in candidate popularity. After all, the last time a Republican won the White House in an open race, whites were 81% of the vote. That was 2000. In 2016 it's all but certain to be 70%.
In 2014 I project Republicans to have a good year. As I mentioned, women drop as percentage of the electorate so the SAM (Simplistic Angry Male) messaging doesn't meet natural resistance. Single women don't show up in midterms. Besides, the GOP structural advantage in the House is astounding after recent gerrymandering. Sam Wang estimates their advantage is as high as 5% before one vote is counted. It's inconceivable that Democrats could retake the House during this decade, unless the GOP wins the presidency in 2016 and the incumbent is wildly unpopular in 2018. Even then, it would be uphill for Democrats.
BTW, my SAM nickname may look harsh at first glance but even Republicans seem to agree. I saw this for the first time today, a Lindsey Graham summary from a couple of months ago:
“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.). “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
Of course, my terminology really should be Simplistic Angry White Male but the spelling doesn't cooperate.
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I am surprised how many people think that simply nominating a Hispanic would change the numbers for the Republicans. It would be balanced by a loss in the white vote, though.
Last edited by Valandui; 11-13-2012 at 11:06 AM.