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Thread: The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    OPINION The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill

    Here is your list of rookie QBs who have gotten significant playing time since 2004:

    QB Rating Win% Rating Z Win% Z
    Ben Roethlisberger 98 1 1.80 2.74
    Joe Flacco 80 0.688 0.51 1.24
    Matt Ryan 88 0.688 1.08 1.24
    Mark buttfumble 63 0.563 -0.71 0.63
    Russell Wilson 91 0.6 1.30 0.81
    Andrew Luck 77 0.6 0.29 0.81
    RGIII 105 0.455 2.30 0.12
    Cam Newton 85 0.375 0.87 -0.27
    Andy Dalton 80 0.563 0.51 0.63
    Vince Young 67 0.615 -0.42 0.88
    Sam Bradford 77 0.438 0.29 0.03
    Jay Cutler 89 0.4 1.15 -0.15
    Trent Edwards 70 0.556 -0.21 0.60
    Kyle Orton 60 0.667 -0.92 1.13
    Eli Manning 55 0.142 -1.28 -1.39
    Matt Leinart 74 0.364 0.08 -0.32
    Matt Stafford 61 0.2 -0.85 -1.11
    Josh Freeman 60 0.333 -0.92 -0.47
    Jimmy Clausen 58 0.1 -1.07 -1.59
    Colt McCoy 75 0.25 0.15 -0.87
    Charlie Frye 73 0.4 0.01 -0.15
    Alex Smith 41 0.286 -2.28 -0.70
    Bruce Gradkowski 66 0.273 -0.49 -0.76
    Blaine Gabbert 65 0.286 -0.56 -0.70
    Christian Ponder 70 0.2 -0.21 -1.11
    Brandon Weeden 70 0.2 -0.21 -1.11
    Ryan Tannehill 70 0.4 -0.21 -0.15
    AVERAGE 72.89 0.431
    STANDARD DEVIATION 13.97 0.208

    As you can see, the average rookie quarterback who has gotten significant playing time since 2004 has a QB rating of 72.89, a little more than two points higher than Ryan Tannehill's current QB rating.

    The average winning percentage of those teams during the games those QBs started was 0.431, which is just a tad higher than the Dolphins' current winning percentage (0.400).

    The key columns here are "Rating Z" and "Win% Z," which indicate how many standard deviations from average the rookie QB's rating falls, as well as how many standard deviations from average the team's winning percentage falls.

    A number of 1 or higher in those columns indicates that the value (either QB rating or team winning percentage) falls at least one standard deviation from average, which puts it at the 84th percentile or higher. In other words, a score of 1 or higher makes the value better than at least 84% of the QBs or teams in the sample.

    That's the level at which I'd personally call a value "significant" in this (or just about any) sample. In other words, only if the number in the "Rating Z" and "Win% Z" columns is 1 or higher would I call it "especially good."

    As you can see, there are only 4 teams of the 27 listed -- 15% -- that have managed to do significantly better than the average team that's started a rookie QB since 2004.

    So, the take-home message is this: if you believe this team should be doing significantly better than its record right now, realize that you're expecting the team to function as well as only 15% of teams with rookie QBs have since 2004.

    On the other hand, there are 5 teams of the 27 above -- 19% -- that did significantly worse with a rookie quarterback than the Dolphins are doing right now.

    So, when we evaluate how the team is doing right now, IMO we should realize that the team is working with a rookie QB, and based on the recent history in the NFL, there is an 85% chance the team won't do significantly better than it is right now under such circumstances.

    IMO we should also realize that the team is nowhere near the 19% of teams that performed significantly more poorly than average with a rookie QB. Instead, the team right now is safely among the 81% of teams that did not perform significantly more poorly than average with a rookie QB.

    In other words, contrary to popular belief, there is no cause for alarm regarding the talent surrounding Ryan Tannehill right now in my opinion.
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    Pro Bowler

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    Drivel.
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    mega-fin-love's Avatar
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    Cool chart and thanks for the post..... Having said that, If you think that there is no reason to be alarmed with the talent around Tanny you have lost your mind. We are not solid at any position on O.
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    uk_dolfan's Avatar
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    Galactic Empire medalManchester United FCPS4 ControllerCam Wake 912013 Dolphins Logo

    Re: The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill

    who is panicking? QB is the least of our problems.
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    Dolfan4life!'s Avatar
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    I wouldn't go so far as to call it drivel, and it's nice to see someone actually use some of the concepts being taught in college statistics (don't see that very often), but if you're doing so in an attempt to sell the thought that there's not a significant lack of talent surrounding Tannehill on offense, could have spent the time it took toput together this analysis a bit more constructively by simply taking a nap.
    Dolfan4life!

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolfan4life! View Post
    if you're doing so in an attempt to sell the thought that there's not a significant lack of talent surrounding Tannehill on offense, could have spent the time it took toput together this analysis a bit more constructively by simply taking a nap.
    Ah well, I did this and I took a nap, too, so I got both covered.
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    Hayden Fox's Avatar
    At the end of the day...

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    1972 Dolphins LogoMike Wallace 11Cam Wake 91Tannehill 17Dolphin
    The talent needs to get better around RT. However, RT needs to make playmakers out HIS play at QB.
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    -=DolfanDave=-'s Avatar
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    the -lack of- talent around Tannehill
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    Dolfan4life!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    Ah well, I did this and I took a nap, too, so I got both covered.
    That's cool, tryptophan gets us all around Thanksgiving. Simultaneously, there still remains a ridiculous lack of talent surrounding Tannehill on offense.
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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolfan4life! View Post
    there still remains a ridiculous lack of talent surrounding Tannehill on offense.
    Thank you for your opinion.
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