The wind was a factor in this game so the"get real" "bad pass move on" and the" Tanny haters" really would like to over look this, but its a fact.
The problem James McKnight was noticing was Hartline's lack of a 5th gear to accelerate through and run under the ball. McKnight attributed it to Hartline spending too much time looking for the ball but I don't think that was it. Hartline just does not have a 5th gear period.
Listen everyone wants to get caught up in this blame game. It's not about blame. It's about factors that could have been different that would have resulted in a successful play.
It is a simple FACT that a Z receiver (i.e. one that runs these kinds of go routes off play action) will offer his quarterback a much larger bullseye from an accuracy standpoint, if he has speed and range. That's not even an argument. It's physics. It's much harder to overthrow a Mike Wallace because he can accelerate through to the football. You can under throw a Mike Wallace as much as you can a Plaxico Burress, because neither Mike Wallace nor any other receiver has a floor on their speed. They can run as slow as is necessary. But some receivers have higher ceilings on their speed than others and this gives them the ability to run under passes other receivers can't.
So think of the window for a quarterback's accuracy on a streak route as like a cone. That cone is big for fast guys, and small for slow guys. Brian Hartline has an ATYPICALLY SMALL (for a Z receiver that runs Z routes) range. This puts more pressure on the quarterback to be precise.
Well, look at the play. Ryan Tannehill threw that ball about 160 feet through the air, or about 1920 inches, and the ball ended up being too long by about 24 inches. That's 1% of the distance. You know how sometimes on crossing routes a QB (eherm, Chad Henne) will throw the ball and hit the wrong shoulder? When that happens the accuracy is off by about 36 inches...but on a pass that most often only travels a fraction of the distance (in my experience about 30 to 36 feet or 360 to 430 inches). The inaccuracy there is more like 8 to 10%.
So going back to Brian Hartline's speed, how much faster would he have needed to be in order to have the range to be able to run through that catch? The route was about 45 yards for Hartline but let's roughly call it about 40 yards. He ran a 4.52 at his Ohio State pro day on a campus track which is deemed to be faster than a Combine track. Mathematically to be 24 inches ahead of where he was in 4.52 seconds, he would have to be the equivalent of a 4.45 player (at a campus pro day track). Scouts will often equate a 4.50 or sometimes even a 4.55 at the Combine to a 4.45 at a pro day.
Let's take a look at last year's receivers in the Draft and see how many fit the bill. Guys like Stephen Hill, A.J. Jenkins, Chris Givens, T.J. Graham, T.Y. Hilton, Devon Wylie, Chris Owusu, Jarius Wright, Danny Coale and Tommy Streeter...those guys obviously qualify as they are all burners. Justin Blackmon ran a 4.46 at his pro day so he would be right on the cusp. With his hands and ability to track the ball in the air, I think that's a catch. Michael Floyd ran a 4.47 at the Combine. He qualifies. Kendall Wright ran a 4.42 at his pro day. He qualifies. Reuben Randle ran a 4.43 at his pro day, he qualifies. Marvin Jones ran a 4.46 at the Combine, he qualifies. Greg Childs ran a 4.40 at his pro day, he qualifies. Joe Adams ran a 4.46 at his pro day, he is right on the cusp. Our own Rishard Matthews ran a 4.44 at his pro day, he qualifies. Nick Toon ran a 4.43 at his pro day, Keshawn Martin ran a 4.45 at the combine, Devier Posey ran a 4.50 at the Combine, and Lavon Brazill ran a 4.48 at the Combine. All of them qualify.
Probably the more pertinent question is which receivers do NOT qualify. They would be Alshon Jeffery, Mohamed Sanu, Juron Criner, Brian Quick, Jeff Fuller, Gerell Robinson and Marvin McNutt...all of them huge players running about 6'2" to 6'4" and 211 to 224 lbs. Toss B.J. Cunningham in that mix. There were some smaller dudes like Marquis Maze and Eric Page, both of whom were much more punt return prospects than receiver prospects.
So essentially, all of this year's receiver prospects except the big, strong, physical (traits you don't equate with Hartline), have the range to run under that pass and catch the football.
So what is REALLY more realistic here, that Ryan Tannehill is able to eliminate that 1% of inaccuracy on a 160 foot throw? Or that Miami might have a receiver running that Z route that has better speed than Hartline, where pretty much every single receiver in this last draft who wasn't the big/strong/physical type would qualify? Which is more doable?
I just dont think hartline has the speed to be a deep threat.
There's a reason hartline has 6 career tds and only one this season.
Originally Posted by nyjunc
The ball drifted too far over Hartline's right shoulder. He's slowing down because he's angling slightly to his right. If the pass is a foot inside, Hartline has every opportunity to make that catch.
But those are all very good points by CK. If we don't draft two WR's by the end of Round 3, I'm going to be pretty upset.
Wind maybe?...was it so winding that Tanny put too much on it to make up throwing into the wind??,or was it the going with the wind and it just floated about a foot too far???
This was a good pass overthrown by inches!!!
I'm going to politely disagree with the theory that the ball was thrown late. I'm watching the backfield action and I see a normally timed play action pass. He could have theoretically clicked the button right off his back foot as he turned around, instead of taking the small hitch step that he took, but I would not advise it. That's how you get into trouble on a play-action pass where you're not able to read the defense as you pull back off the snap. He's got his back turned to the defense and he has to make sure the safety is clear before he releases that ball. That's why there was a small hitch step. It's the same as I see from every quarterback in the league be it Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc.
Just because Brian Hartline looked up early, right after he had cleared the corner, doesn't mean he was right to do so. It was instinctive on his part. When you clear a defensive back so cleanly you want to look up for and catch the ball right away so that the defensive back doesn't have time to recover. And if you're Brian Hartline and you run a 4.52 at your private pro day track, then you know your own speed by now and you know that defensive back IS going to recover lost ground the longer you run. That's why Hartline was anxious for the ball.
But the bottom line is it was Hartline's lack of top gear that ensured he couldn't run underneath that ball. You're looking at norms. How far outside of the norm is Brian Hartline's speed relative to his role, versus how far outside the norm was it for Ryan Tannehill to be about 1% off from a perfectly accurate throw.
PERSONALLY, I think it's more outside the norm for Brian Hartline to be unable to run under that ball, than it is for Ryan Tannehill to be 1% off from a perfect throw on a 160 footer.
What I don't like is how many people take a perfectly debatable and discussable topic like this and act like everyone that disagrees with them is being an idiot.