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Thread: Most Important Stat

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    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    Teamwise, Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential is my favorite. It's the so-called Killer Stat developed by the late Bud Goode. The new arrogant jerks like Aaron Schatz try to denounce it but for betting purposes I can tell you YPPA Differential is far superior to anything they have come up with. I've run countless Monte Carlo simulations. I think I mentioned about a month ago that Carolina was the most underrated team in the league. They had a very good YPPA Differential but a poor record. The Panthers logically rebounded to the mean by winning and covering their last four games.

    Passer Rating Differential is another one. I remain more loyal to YPPA Differential simply because I've used it longer and know more about it. Last year the guys who tout Passer Rating Differential at coldhardfootballfacts.com got extremely cocky and basically announced that the Giants had no chance against the Packers, or in the playoffs period. I emailed them to be careful. This is a strange era. The regular season results still adhere to the old statistical and situational trends but the playoffs are more flimsy. Frankly, the results are weird and often unexplainable. I'm glad my simple system still works, taking any team with at least a half yard edge in YPPA Differential over its opponent. I have all four favorites this week -- Green Bay, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore. The Packers have the largest edge while Houston barely qualifies as exactly a half yard above the Bengals.

    BTW, New England is surprisingly poor in the differential stats this year. In fact, barely above average.

    Yards Per Attempt is the long term standard for quarterbacks. It will never lead you too far astray. The teams that gave big money and extended contracts to Sanchez and Fitzpatrick obviously didn't pay attention. Very infrequently there's a puzzling example like Tony Romo. He's in the top 6 or 8 all time in yards per attempt but obviously his results in big games don't align with that. When you hears fans belittle Romo but coaches and league analysts praise him or allow benefit of a doubt, it's because the NFL types are very much aware of Romo's excellence in getting the ball downfield.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mudder1310 View Post
    QB - yards per attempt
    This.

    I could care less about a guy who completed 70% in those dink and dunk spread offenses we see in college. I'd rather have a guy who completed 60% but has twice the yards per attempt.
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    Cam Wake 911972 Dolphins Logo
    Yards per attempt and not yards per completion? So where does our QB rate on that list?
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    BG12DM13CP10's Avatar
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    1. Completion %
    2. Wins
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    Quote Originally Posted by BahamaFinFan78 View Post
    Yards per attempt and not yards per completion? So where does our QB rate on that list?
    Yards per attempt, b/c it factors in the completion percentage. If you only count yards per completion, you could be 10-30 for 200 and say your 20 ypc was great! But actually, the QB play was awful. Now if you use those same stats but look at ypa, it's only 6.7 while a guy who was 16-22 for 180 has a ypa of 8.2 (a ypc of only 11.25). That QB was much more efficient per play with the ball in his hand. He probably kept the sticks moving though.
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    Cam Wake 911972 Dolphins Logo
    Here are the Yards per Attempt numbers for 2012. Doesn't look good for us.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...PerPassAttempt
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marino420TD View Post
    QB's: TD to int ratio
    RB's: YPC
    WR/TE: TD's

    Wins are too hard to just pin on the QB. Comp % is too easy to manipulate with short passes (4yd pass on 3rd and 8).
    Sounds good to me. IMO, yardage is important for RBs, since the majority of rushing plays are short gains. For every other position, TDs are all that matters. Numbers such as passing yards and receiving yards mean nothing in the long run (although making 1st downs may be the most important stat). Games are won by scoring more points than your opponent (duh!), and yardage doesn't equal points. Gaining yards is only for getting in position to score points; it does no good to have 500 yards of offense and only 10 points!

    I will say that yardage is important for kickoff and punt returns.
    Last edited by gofins60; 01-02-2013 at 10:18 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3rdandinches View Post
    Wins
    So you would pick Tebow lol?????
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    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BahamaFinFan78 View Post
    Here are the Yards per Attempt numbers for 2012. Doesn't look good for us.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...PerPassAttempt
    6.8 is not bad for a rookie. Not bad at all. Rookies who are forced to start all season often end up at high 5s to mid 6s.

    It was a balanced year in yards per attempt. Nobody had a phenomenal year but there weren't many poor ones. The caliber of rookies contributed to that.
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