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Thread: College Tannehill vs. Pro Tannehill - A Metrics Breakdown (Griffin, Luck, etc. too)

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    College Tannehill vs. Pro Tannehill - A Metrics Breakdown (Griffin, Luck, etc. too)

    Before the last draft I did a breakdown of all the QBs and their accuracies at different ranges to give a good feel for how they performed in college (http://www.finheaven.com/show...rics-Breakdown). Now, I wanted to compare their college numbers to their pro numbers to get a feel for where they are now, how they have progressed, etc. I took 8 of Tannehill's games, watched all of his passes and charted every throw he made within those games. To limit it to the quarterback's ability, I only noted where the receiver caught the ball. I also looked at the formation they threw from, drops, etc. I'm going to throw up the charts and then a little commentary.

    EDIT: Looking at the correlation between college and pro accuracy within the zones, I found that the completion percentage in a zone in college will "explain" or predict (I use that word hesitantly) 78% of their pro accuracy. That is, there is actually a pretty strong correlation between their college accuracy and pro accuracy in each zone. Thus, if I were to grade out Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, etc - I'd be decently confident that their zone accuracy in college would roughly predict how they do in the NFL. (A statistician would probably punch me for putting it like that, but I'll manage)

    A&M Dolphins A&M Dolphins
    Total Comp% Comp% %TotalThrows %TotalThrows
    Screen 93.55 76.00 20.67 11.06
    1-5 Yards 64.29 63.64 18.67 34.07
    6-10 Yards 57.14 54.90 23.33 22.57
    11-20 Yards 55.88 52.27 22.67 19.47
    20 + Yards 31.82 34.48 14.67 12.83

    These are both the completion percentages from his Texas A&M games and the Dolphins games as well as the percentage of total throws. That is, 34.07% of his throws with the Dolphins were within the 1-5 yard range. I highlighted some things I found interesting.

    PRR A&M Dolphins
    Comp% Comp%
    Screen 100.00 79.17
    1-5 Yards 69.23 69.01
    6-10 Yards 66.67 62.22
    11-20 Yards 61.29 58.97
    20 + Yards 33.33 35.71
    Total 67.88 62.32

    Total Drop %:
    A&M: 8.66%
    Phins: 8.4%

    These are the completion percentages adjusted for drops by the wide receivers. The PRR stands for Perfect Receiver Rating, assuming that they caught every ball thrown to them. I only took blatant drops into account, not passes that are simply catchable.

    A&M Dolphins
    Shotgun 55.56% 52.05%
    Under Center 71.67% 66.25%

    Of course, these are his completion percentages in shotgun and under center.

    Commentary

    -First off, despite the fact that his overall completion % decreased from college to the NFL (expected), I find it interesting that his completion percentages at the various depths are relatively similar between the pros and college. Aside from the screens which decreased drastically (even when drops are factored in), he's still poor on deep throws and solid on mid-range throws

    -I guess the install of Sherman's offense to the pros involved cutting down on screens. Their usage is down 9% in the offense and they've significantly jacked up the number of throws within the 1-5 yard range, 19% - 34%

    -I'm actually impressed that he was able to keep his 11-20 yard accuracy up, it dropped for Griffin and seems like it'd be one of the harder throws to continuously make.

    -I'm confused about the coaching staff's usage of the shotgun. More than 2/3rds of Tannehill's throws were from shotgun despite his continued inaccuracy from the formation. It makes sense that he may be less accurate in the gun because they are likely passing situations and he might be playing from behind. However, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson were far better in the gun throughout both their pro and college careers. Even taking Tannehill's play action production into account, you would think the coaching staff might step back and at least call 50/50 in the formations, since Tannehill is clearly better under center.

    -Drops are still high in his pro career. 8% is relatively high compared to the other QBs in college and the pros. Either he keeps getting screwed on the talent level around him or there's something else going on with his throw.

    I'm in the process of doing some of the other QBs to get a feel for how accurate looking at their college completion percentages is. I'll post them below as I finish them up. REMEMBER: Any stats are complementary in nature and I'm not saying you should use these to make your only judgments of Tannehill. I'm always astounded by how many people read some stats and then go YEAH BUT...I understand there's more to football than completion percentage. Use this as a tool in making your judgment, not the only thing.
    Last edited by NUGap; 01-04-2013 at 02:06 AM.
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    Perennial All-Pro

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    It would be nice is if you could tabulate similar numbers for the top teir Qbs in the league. That way we would have a good barometer to gauge how far or close RT is from being elite
    Last edited by ANUFan; 01-03-2013 at 08:20 PM.
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    Rgiii

    Here are RGIII's numbers between college and the pros. I'm just going to post one or two things I find interesting.

    Baylor Skins Baylor Skins
    Total Comp% Comp% %TotalThrows %TotalThrows
    Screen 85.71 73.68 15.79 19.39
    1-5 Yards 75.00 77.42 24.06 31.63
    6-10 Yards 60.00 72.22 22.56 18.37
    11-20 Yards 68.00 50.00 18.80 20.41
    20 + Yards 60.00
    60.00 18.80 10.20

    PRR Baylor Skins
    Total Comp% Comp%
    Screen 90.00 87.50
    1-5 Yards 77.42 80.00
    6-10 Yards 62.07 76.47
    11-20 Yards 80.95 58.82
    20 + Yards 62.50 60.00
    73.60 74.44

    -The deep ball stayed eerily similar (my samples just happened to line up well), but I'm surprised by how much his accuracy in the 11-20 range dropped.

    -He's throwing 20% screens in the pros, which isn't exactly exorbitant (or stat padding), but it ain't low either.

    -The amount of 1-5 yard passes he throws are pretty similar to Tannehill.
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    Tannehill needs to improve his touch on the short passes. Sound familiar? Henne still doesn't have it.
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    I think the problem is, the dolphins suck at screen passes; and for the last 15 years I might add. I long for the day when we have a screen pass that the opposing D does not sniff out immediately or our RB has 3 blockers in wide open space. Remember when Jim Kelly used to kill us with that play. My God.
    Sometimes my brain hurts when I read the general Miami Dolphins forum

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    Luck

    Here are Luck's numbers:

    Stanford Colts Stanford
    Colts
    Total Comp% Comp% %TotalThrows %TotalThrows
    Screen 88.89 92.31 8.11 9.15
    1-5 Yards 85.00 61.11 36.04 25.35
    6-10 Yards 70.83 48.48 21.62 23.24
    11-20 Yards 46.15 50.00 23.42 28.17
    20 + Yards 41.67 30.00 10.81 14.08

    PRR Stanford
    Colts
    Total Comp% Comp%
    Screen 88.89 92.31
    1-5 Yards 91.89 64.71
    6-10 Yards 70.83 57.14
    11-20 Yards 50.00 52.63
    20 + Yards 50.00 33.33
    73.08 58.02

    -Luck of the three QBs has the most distributed passes in his pro style offense. He also has the lowest overall completion percentage, so you would imagine that instead of padding his stats like Tannehill with 1-5 yard passes and RGIII with screens - he's looking at throwing an expanded route tree all the time.

    -The drop in his accuracy in th 6-10 yard range is pretty drastic, about 13% points in the PPR. His 11-20 yard accuracy is pretty similar, even a little bit better and his deep accuracy is so-so. However he also throws the deep ball more than the others and at a pretty bad accuracy rating.
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    Screen passes only work if you have OL that are good in space and/or fast WR's or RB's to run them. Of those, we only really have the RB's to do it. RGIII has a stable of fast WR's to run bubble screens and that pads his statistics. Tannehill could throw them, sure, but our WR's aren't going to turn them into explosive plays. Our OL aren't all good in space so the RB screens are tough to execute as well. Personnel. Without the right players around him, it would be foolish to throw the same passes. :/
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    Quote Originally Posted by ANUFan View Post
    It would be nice is if you could tabulate similar numbers for the top teir Qbs in the league. That way we would have a good barometer to gauge how far or close RT is from being elite
    I would, but there was another similar thread on that type of thing today (totally didn't see it when I posted today) and it's got some good stuff in there. I'm far more interested in the draft and seeing how you can project talent using stats as a factor, finding out how RT is doing in the pros/ his offense is more of a byproduct of finding out how well these stats correlate to college numbers.
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    Tannehill's # of screens passes will increase as Miami add linemen that fit the scheme. They had too many square pegs in round holes this year. For the most part the linemen weren't athletic enough to get out in front of screens so Sherman didn't call them.
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    Our Oline is gonna look drasticaly differnt where they will be useful to Ryan our QB is throwing into smallish windows unlike RG3, it plays with the qb's head, esp. when your guy is running free
    Dmitri Patterson gets indefinitely suspended for "not showing up" and Buttfumble got a raise for "not showing up" - go figure how the JESTS world works?
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