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Thread: College Tannehill vs. Pro Tannehill - A Metrics Breakdown (Griffin, Luck, etc. too)

  1. -11
    hooshoops's Avatar
    Ryan tannehill...like a boss

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    i haven't had a chance to read this yet but i'm looking forward to it but i know one thing after watching a bunch of tannehill at a & m and his rookie year in miami...his decision making got a lot damn better in the pros...i wish there was a way to track that so that people could see the difference

    not many guys go into the pros and year one have as sound decisions with the football as tannehill did this year...especially ones who have to do as much as miami ask tannehill to do in this option route system...with what he had he could have thrown 25 picks easy as a first year starter having to set up all his protections presnap and run an option route system with very limited options on the outside...easy
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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  2. -12
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    The 30% completion rate on the deep ball is pretty league standard, RGII at 60% is an anomaly, he will not continue at that rate, no way.

    In the case of Tannehill, he needs to work on his 6 to 10 yard passes, those will end up being his bread and butter, Brady and Manning made there careers off that yardage throw. As for Luck this is still more proof that Indy has no business being in the playoffs yet, soon but not yet.
    Hold My Beer and Watch This!
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  3. -13
    NUGap's Avatar
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    Wilson

    Here are Wilson's numbers

    Wisconsin Hawks Wisconsin Hawks
    Total Comp% Comp% %TotalThrows %TotalThrows
    Screen 88.89 66.67 8.82 13.27
    1-5 Yards 92.59 73.53 26.47 30.09
    6-10 Yards 57.14 66.67 20.59 23.89
    11-20 Yards 68.18 59.09 21.57 19.47
    20 + Yards 34.78 46.67 22.55 13.27

    PRR Wisconsin
    Hawks
    Total Comp% Comp%
    Screen 100.00 83.33
    1-5 Yards 92.59 75.76
    6-10 Yards 63.16 69.23
    11-20 Yards 68.18 61.90
    20 + Yards 38.10 46.67
    70.10 68.22
    -I find it really interesting that all four quarterbacks now have had roughly 30% of their passes within the 1-5 yard range, higher than any other yardage zone. Obviously it's a high percentage throw, but I don't know if the NFL average is around 30% or that's just an easy throw for rookies to make.

    -Impressed by Wilson's improvement on the 6-10 yard ball. Most QBs in this haven't improved on many of their ranges, so to see a big jump is pretty impressive.

    -Also like the clip he's throwing at with the deep ball, 46% is a nice number that feels like it could be sustainable.

    -He also had the lowest drop percentage at 4.9%, it certainly helps your team win when you'r receivers aren't dropping the ball...
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  4. -14
    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    -I'm confused about the coaching staff's usage of the shotgun. More than 2/3rds of Tannehill's throws were from shotgun despite his continued inaccuracy from the formation. It makes sense that he may be less accurate in the gun because they are likely passing situations and he might be playing from behind. However, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson were far better in the gun throughout both their pro and college careers. Even taking Tannehill's play action production into account, you would think the coaching staff might step back and at least call 50/50 in the formations, since Tannehill is clearly better under center.
    It's senseless when we put Tannehill in the shotgun on an early down, particularly if it's an open set and not flanked by backs. I emphasized that in a play action thread a couple of weeks ago. Our best and most rhythmic passing plays are off decisive play action from under center. Tannehill is more comfortable and more accurate on those throws. The plays simply evolve better...open spaces. The weakness at receiver and inexperience at quarterback is magnified when you pretend you can line up 4 or 5 wide and throw the ball successfully when the opponent knows you are likely to throw it.

    The league in general is overly obsessed with the shotgun. It's simply bad football. Copycat league with the wrong lessons learned in this case. Under the new rules a Brady or Rodgers is able to quickly decipher the 4-5 options and allow the perfect arc and pace toward a successful play. Countless permutations. With lesser quarterbacks it's simply too much chaos, and mostly in the same place. Ten to 15 yards routes. Pick one quickly. Extra defensive backs who are never too far away when you've got 4 or 5 receivers wandering around. Second or third tier quarterbacks generally have less than ideal accuracy or touch. When I attended the Buffalo game I was trying to restrain a chuckle at Fitzpatrick's wild line drive flails out of the shotgun. No threat of finesse, or making something out of nothing. Quarterbacks of that caliber were better served with options from every angle, like backs swinging out of the backfield, or use of the wingback position. Quick pop passes from under center. Anything that didn't force them to be something they are not. Weak quarterbacks abusing the shotgun is like outmanned basketball teams pathetically launching one three pointer after another. It makes headlines in the very rare occasions it succeeds but in general you cement your fate.

    Besides, defenses salivate to rotate forward and attack empty sets and mediocre quarterbacks who are sitting back there under no pretense of a running game. Too much shotgun reduces rushing attempts and doesn't help yards per attempt. The offense evolves as less physical and more vulnerable. You could sense how flimsy we were from the opening kickoff at New England. I'd propose we would have competed markedly better in that game if we never heard of the shotgun this season. Line up and hit somebody, with 30+ rushes and play action.

    In a game like that when you are trying to approximate their style, but are laughably worse in every category, it's a stark reality to how far behind we are. With so little contrast in this era it's easy to understand why so many teams are winning 12 or 13 games or more. It was 4 this season and 5 last year. The sportsbooks typically put one or two teams at 11 wins or higher in the season win over/under. Previously that looked high. Now you wonder how they'll possibly lose 5 times. Everybody is determined to wing the ball out of the shotgun, but only a half dozen or so elite quarterbacks.

    It's too soon to tell if Tannehill will reach the level of a quarterback who can thrive out of the shotgun via great feel for the game. His accuracy issues are a bit troubling in that regard.

    BTW, don't fall for the jumbo that he could have thrown 25 interceptions this season, given the way we used him. That's the standard 40% adjustment, the type that you hear so often in sports bars, or these days on ESPN. The rule should always be that if you're projecting more than a 10% adjustment you're probably wrong, and anything 20% or higher is laughable. That applies to how we'll fare after acquiring better skill position players. Only three quarterbacks in more than a decade have thrown 25 or more interceptions in a season. It was Favre, Cutler and Eli Manning, BTW. In many seasons, including this year, nobody reaches 20. I see many examples of the happy 40% adjustment around here. Typically I let them go, minus comment. They certainly don't go unchallenged in sportsbooks. You're laughed out of the room. As much as I despise Sun Life Stadium compared to the Orange Bowl, it's a forfeit of 1.5 to 2 points per game on average, nothing close to what some estimates would apply.
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  5. -15
    hooshoops's Avatar
    Ryan tannehill...like a boss

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    10 percent adjustment my rear end...if tannehills decision making had not been as good as it was and had he not played against blitz pressure as well as he did regarding making quick decisions under fire another 1.3 picks projected is what's laughable...take that metric back to vegas...

    even 20 percent is only 2.6 more picks...if your qb is throwing the ball into coverage all over the place it's gonna be way more than another 3 picks added over the course of 15 games...now i will say that 25 was probably a bit much but in the 20 range absolutely possible...
    Last edited by hooshoops; 01-04-2013 at 04:49 PM.
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