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Thread: Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

    This is a "sequel" to this thread:

    http://www.finheaven.com/show...a-Franchise-QB

    I gathered some more data on this, focusing specifically on the percentage of "very good" starts rookie QBs have made since 2004, in comparison to their percentages of "poor" starts.

    I defined a "very good" start as a start with a QB rating of 90 or higher, and a "poor" start as one with a QB rating of 69 or lower. Starts with QB ratings between 70 and 89 were not used in any of these analyses.

    Here are the data:

    QB %age of Very Good Starts %age of Poor Starts Franchise QB? Career QB Rating
    Tannehill 47 47
    Luck 31 25
    Wilson 69 19
    RGIII 67 7
    Weeden 27 40
    Newton 44 25 Yes 86.2
    Dalton 44 38 Yes 87.4
    Bradford 25 38 Yes 82.6
    Palmer 38 46 Yes 86.2
    Roethlisberger 62 23 Yes 92.7
    Ryan 56 31 Yes 90.9
    Flacco 44 31 Yes 86.3
    Ponder 30 60 Yes 81.2
    Stafford 20 60 Yes 82.8
    Gabbert 14 14 No 70.2
    Sanchez 27 33 No 71.7
    Young 15 46 No 74.4
    Leinart 36 36 No 70.2
    Freeman 22 56 Yes 79.8
    Gradkowski 27 64 No 65.8
    Orton 7 67 No 79.7
    Edwards 22 55 No 75.5
    Clausen 20 60 No 58.4
    Walter 0 75 No 52.6
    Smith 14 86 No 79.1
    EManning 29 71 Yes 82.7

    The thinking here is that a QB's future "ceiling" may be revealed in how often he's able to perform at a very high level during his rookie season, whereas his future quality of play overall may be revealed in how he minimizes poor play as a rookie while maximizing very good play.

    As it turns out, the correlation between the percentage of very good starts as a rookie and career QB rating is 0.70, which is strong.

    The correlation between the percentage of poor starts as a rookie and career QB rating is -0.37 and is comparatively weak, and that variable will therefore not be used as a basis for any analyses in this thread.

    What the data also reveal is that the average percentage of very good starts among the future "franchise QBs" is 37.6, with a standard deviation of 13.78.

    The average percentage of very good starts among the future "non-franchise QBs" is 19.7, with a standard deviation of 9.63.

    Ryan Tannehill's percentage of very good starts (47%) places him within a standard deviation above the average of the future "franchise QBs," while also placing him nearly three (!) standard deviations above the mean of the "non-franchise QBs."

    So, the take-home message is that Ryan Tannehill, in terms of his percentage of very good starts (QB rating of 90 or higher), which was 47%, played much more like a future franchise QB as a rookie than a future non-franchise QB.

    I think this lends support to people's perceptions that Ryan Tannehill appears to have the makings of a franchise QB based on how often he was able to play at a high level this year.

    For the sake of further comparison, Chad Henne in 2009, in his second season in the NFL (first as a starter), following far more college starts at QB, had a 90 QB rating or higher in ony 23% of his starts, which puts him less than a standard deviation above the mean of the non-franchise QBs, and more than a standard deviation below the mean of the "franchise" QBs.

    In other words, with regard to this particular stat, Tannehill played like a future franchise QB this year, whereas Chad Henne in 2009 played like a future non-franchise QB. I think you could also argue that Ryan Tannehill played even better as a rookie than Chad Henne did this year for Jacksonville, as a fifth-year player.
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    TrinidadDolfan's Avatar
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    Excellent post.
    Great analysis!
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    sirvmac's Avatar
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    Very insightful post!
    The more I look at Tannehill, I feel there is a lot to like.
    I'm more worried about our system/Sherman than Tannehill to be quite honest.
    I know I'm in the minority but imo Tannehill is being held back.
    Sherman isn't doing anything to help him or to make it easier on him.
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    MartinTheSNAKE's Avatar
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    Snakes!Mike Wallace 112013 Dolphins Logo1972 Dolphins LogoCam Wake 91
    I agree that he is our franchise QB. The flip flopping on this board is ridiculous. People are so quick to jump the gun on this kid its mind boggling. He has all the tools of a franchise QB. He has a cannon for an arm, throws a tight spiral, has good touch, can read a defense, is somewhat accurate, can run, is physical...I mean...Come one people... The kid can make any throw, and he has less QB experience then some Seniors/Juniors in college.

    And i feel like his stats are very misleading. He has had a TON of dropped balls this season, and quite a few dropped touch down passes as well. Not only that, but at least 4 of his INT's were off of the reciever's hands first. He had a lot of games this season where he threw 0 interceptions. Also, he has no play makers at WR. He doesnt have a Brandon Marshall (who i think if we had, we could have been a playoff team this year) who can get YAC and get himself a touch down. He essential had 2 slot recievers as the #1 and 2 option... And then a bunch of 5th stringers to work with. He wasnt even supposed to play this season, but did and still played well and showed enough to prove this kid has potential.

    Get the man a true #1 and 2 reciever. A TE who can catch over the middle and resign reggie and he is going to look like a completely different player. Id like to see some 5 wr packages with reggie as the 5th reciever.
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    Vaark's Avatar
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    It Is What It Is

    Just wait! Excellent logical coherent post that will still draw some "thumbs downs" from the usual OCD-level Tanny-hating suspects. (as likely they will present themselves similarly in this one).





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    Joneal7's Avatar
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    so is a vaark that blue thing? =]
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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaark View Post
    Just wait! Excellent logical coherent post that will still draw some "thumbs downs" from the usual OCD-level Tanny-hating suspects. (as likely they will present themselves similarly in this one).
    And that's how you determine whom to put on your ignore list.
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    OUTSTANDING post, thanks :-)
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    Cam Wake 91PS4 Controller2013 Dolphins Logo1972 Dolphins Logo
    Good writeup and everything dude.


    Deshaun Watson is the TRUTH!
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    Waterlogged

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    If he is, it should be obvious. We shouldn't have to dig up states to prove or disprove his potential. All of the other QB's picked before and after have shown that. If he gets wr's to the same caliber as the others, and still does not make the playoffs, then the answer is simple. We shall see next year. Stats wont tell us anything.
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