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Thread: Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

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    The only thing I disagree with is the label of some guys as a franchise QB. Sam Bradford? Not yet. Christian Ponder? Still work to be done.
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    Quote Originally Posted by z926538 View Post
    How did you pick your QBR thresholds? Was there significant change in the analysis using different thresholds?
    If you click on the link at the top of the original post, it'll bring you to the thread where all that was explained.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdksek844 View Post
    If he is, it should be obvious. We shouldn't have to dig up states to prove or disprove his potential. All of the other QB's picked before and after have shown that. If he gets wr's to the same caliber as the others, and still does not make the playoffs, then the answer is simple. We shall see next year. Stats wont tell us anything.
    I think if it were so obvious, there wouldn't be much if any disagreement about it among people who have presumably watched all of his NFL games, yet that doesn't seem to be the case here.
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    To be a franchise QB, you have to lead your team to more victories than losses. You need atleast a 2:1 TD to Int ratio and a QB rating consistently in the high 80s or 90s. He has a ton of work to do but surrounding him with elite talent is the first step. I've seen some good and I've seen some very bad from him this year, which is expected from a rookie. I'm still waiting for that come from behind 2min drive to win the game. Luck, RG3, Wilson, and even Cousins have done that this year. I want to see a huge jump from last year and then maybe we can say he is the Franchise QB. Until then, he's just another guy with potential.
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    He performed a game winning drive at the end of the game against a very tough Seattle defense. He also did it against Arizon and NYJ but the kicker missed the field goal.
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    Hey I am concerned about RGIII and now with Russell Wilson (after today's game) , every year is a new year and strange things happen, injuries, weather, etc. There is always someone, something to blame.

    The only thing I didn't like about Tannehill was his lack of TD's throwing, which translates to low scoring and losing to teams we should have beat.

    Hopefully next season he will be a lot more comfortable and he will improve. With that being said, I felt we could have made the playoffs with Matt Moore and he earned the right to be the starter. I felt we may have sacrificed a season in an effort to prove Ryan Tannehill was the "one", the franchise QB. I knew it would take time and he would have been served best if he sat on the sideline for a season, but that's just me and my opinion.

    If you don't make the playoffs, you have zero chance of making the Super Bowl.

    Unfortunately the Patriots have been dominating our division on a consistent basis.

    Can I run a retraction on Russell Wilson, I don't know what has happened, but they're back in the game.

    d-1
    Last edited by dolphans1; 01-13-2013 at 04:36 PM.
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    I'm curious, you included Carson Palmer from the 2003 NFL draft. Why did you not include Kyle Boller and Byron Leftwich? Both took the majority of starts in their rookie year and are up to a solid prerequisite number of snaps for statistical significance.

    I ask because I went back and did your correlation between rookie QB rating and career QB rating with Boller and Leftwich included and the correlation bumps from .58 (from your other post) to .65. Which is obviously somewhat significant. It puts it within 4% points of your .69 correlation on "good wins".

    Why this seems important to me is because if we accept this higher correlation as acceptably close to "good wins", then we have to look at that with Tannehill as well. I read your former post and didn't see an explanation of how a QB was "franchise" or not with a metric, so I assume it was qualitative. Thus, in my opinion, I moved Ponder and Freeman to No in the franchise designation. Given that there are reports out there that say Schiano could want Freeman gone after his contract is up - I'm definitely not willing to call him franchise.

    Running it all out with rookie QBR to career QBR and my conditions (Ponder, Freeman, Boller, Leftwich). The average rookie QBR for a "franchise" QB is 86.5 and the average rookie QBR for a non-franchise is 67.15. Finding Tannehill's z-score within the distribution, would put his rookie QBR at 23% of all "franchise QBs" and at 93% of all "non-franchise" QBs. To me, using this specific metric tells me that it's a toss-up as to whether Tannehill becomes a franchise QB. Either way he'll be an outlier. He'll be in the top percentile for rookie QBR for those who bust out or in the bottom percentile for quarterbacks who make it as a franchise guy.

    Obviously it's a great thing that you're using multiple metrics, including this "good wins" and the WPA. I just found it interesting that in terms of rookie QBR, Tannehill will be a bit of an oddity no matter if he booms or busts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    I'm curious, you included Carson Palmer from the 2003 NFL draft. Why did you not include Kyle Boller and Byron Leftwich? Both took the majority of starts in their rookie year and are up to a solid prerequisite number of snaps for statistical significance.

    I ask because I went back and did your correlation between rookie QB rating and career QB rating with Boller and Leftwich included and the correlation bumps from .58 (from your other post) to .65. Which is obviously somewhat significant. It puts it within 4% points of your .69 correlation on "good wins".

    Why this seems important to me is because if we accept this higher correlation as acceptably close to "good wins", then we have to look at that with Tannehill as well. I read your former post and didn't see an explanation of how a QB was "franchise" or not with a metric, so I assume it was qualitative. Thus, in my opinion, I moved Ponder and Freeman to No in the franchise designation. Given that there are reports out there that say Schiano could want Freeman gone after his contract is up - I'm definitely not willing to call him franchise.

    Running it all out with rookie QBR to career QBR and my conditions (Ponder, Freeman, Boller, Leftwich). The average rookie QBR for a "franchise" QB is 86.5 and the average rookie QBR for a non-franchise is 67.15. Finding Tannehill's z-score within the distribution, would put his rookie QBR at 23% of all "franchise QBs" and at 93% of all "non-franchise" QBs. To me, using this specific metric tells me that it's a toss-up as to whether Tannehill becomes a franchise QB. Either way he'll be an outlier. He'll be in the top percentile for rookie QBR for those who bust out or in the bottom percentile for quarterbacks who make it as a franchise guy.

    Obviously it's a great thing that you're using multiple metrics, including this "good wins" and the WPA. I just found it interesting that in terms of rookie QBR, Tannehill will be a bit of an oddity no matter if he booms or busts.
    The problem with rookie QB rating is that its correlation with career QB rating plummets from 0.58 to 0.19 when you partial out the variance in both associated with rookie WPA.

    Other than confirmation bias, this is what helps "explain" why Andrew Luck looked so good to so many people who watched him this year, yet had a rookie QB rating in only the mid-70s. His play in the clutch (i.e., WPA) was much better than his play in general (i.e., QB rating), and much better than Tannehill's play in the clutch. It just so happens that one's play in the clutch (WPA) as a rookie is much more strongly predictive of later "franchise" status than one's play in general (QB rating) as a rookie.

    Aside from that, I'm all for playing around with the criterion variable of "franchise" status and seeing what that does to the prediction for Ryan Tannehill. Obviously you can change the threshold for the criterion variable at will. Hell, you could play around with that to the point that you're predicting whether or not he'll be in the Pro Bowl.
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    The difference between Tannehill and Luck, RG3, and Wilson is weapons. Luck has guys like Wayne, Hilton, Allen. RG3 has an amazing O-Line and Morris. Wilson has a lot of options, and a beast RB in Lynch. Tannehill almost led us to the playoffs with a terrible offense and a defense that doesn't force turnovers. Just blew too many close games and lost to a scrub Titans team.
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    The difference between Tannehill and Luck, RG3, and Wilson is weapons. Luck had guys like Wayne, Hilton, Allen. RG3 had an amazing O-Line and RB in Morris, and he had some reliable WR's and TE's. Wilson had Sidney Rice, Marshawn Lynch, Golden Tate, and an aggressive defense that gave him various possessions. What did Tannehill have? Hartline was our #1 WR, Bush probably set a record for negative runs in a season, our O-line is nothing amazing, and the defense was good, but could not force turnovers. Regardless of all that, we blew about 3 games early on in the season, and we got blown out by a scrub Titans team. Tannehill also threw like 8 of 13 interceptions early on. If things go just a little bit different, Tannehill would have gotten us into the playoffs with a pathetic offense and a defense that does not do the offense any favors. There is doubt in my mind this guy can have a monster year with just 2 or 3 more reliable options on offense. To top it off, he showed that he can run the ball if needed towards the end of the season. There is a lot that Tannehill can do that we did not show off because we were too limited and conservative this season.
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