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Thread: Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

  1. -21
    Scout Team

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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    This is a "sequel" to this thread:

    http://www.finheaven.com/show...a-Franchise-QB

    I gathered some more data on this, focusing specifically on the percentage of "very good" starts rookie QBs have made since 2004, in comparison to their percentages of "poor" starts.

    I defined a "very good" start as a start with a QB rating of 90 or higher, and a "poor" start as one with a QB rating of 69 or lower. Starts with QB ratings between 70 and 89 were not used in any of these analyses.

    Here are the data:

    QB %age of Very Good Starts %age of Poor Starts Franchise QB? Career QB Rating
    Tannehill 47 47
    Luck 31 25
    Wilson 69 19
    RGIII 67 7
    Weeden 27 40
    Newton 44 25 Yes 86.2
    Dalton 44 38 Yes 87.4
    Bradford 25 38 Yes 82.6
    Palmer 38 46 Yes 86.2
    Roethlisberger 62 23 Yes 92.7
    Ryan 56 31 Yes 90.9
    Flacco 44 31 Yes 86.3
    Ponder 30 60 Yes 81.2
    Stafford 20 60 Yes 82.8
    Gabbert 14 14 No 70.2
    buttfumble 27 33 No 71.7
    Young 15 46 No 74.4
    Leinart 36 36 No 70.2
    Freeman 22 56 Yes 79.8
    Gradkowski 27 64 No 65.8
    Orton 7 67 No 79.7
    Edwards 22 55 No 75.5
    Clausen 20 60 No 58.4
    Walter 0 75 No 52.6
    Smith 14 86 No 79.1
    EManning 29 71 Yes 82.7

    The thinking here is that a QB's future "ceiling" may be revealed in how often he's able to perform at a very high level during his rookie season, whereas his future quality of play overall may be revealed in how he minimizes poor play as a rookie while maximizing very good play.

    As it turns out, the correlation between the percentage of very good starts as a rookie and career QB rating is 0.70, which is strong.

    The correlation between the percentage of poor starts as a rookie and career QB rating is -0.37 and is comparatively weak, and that variable will therefore not be used as a basis for any analyses in this thread.

    What the data also reveal is that the average percentage of very good starts among the future "franchise QBs" is 37.6, with a standard deviation of 13.78.

    The average percentage of very good starts among the future "non-franchise QBs" is 19.7, with a standard deviation of 9.63.

    Ryan Tannehill's percentage of very good starts (47%) places him within a standard deviation above the average of the future "franchise QBs," while also placing him nearly three (!) standard deviations above the mean of the "non-franchise QBs."

    So, the take-home message is that Ryan Tannehill, in terms of his percentage of very good starts (QB rating of 90 or higher), which was 47%, played much more like a future franchise QB as a rookie than a future non-franchise QB.

    I think this lends support to people's perceptions that Ryan Tannehill appears to have the makings of a franchise QB based on how often he was able to play at a high level this year.

    For the sake of further comparison, Chad Henne in 2009, in his second season in the NFL (first as a starter), following far more college starts at QB, had a 90 QB rating or higher in ony 23% of his starts, which puts him less than a standard deviation above the mean of the non-franchise QBs, and more than a standard deviation below the mean of the "franchise" QBs.

    In other words, with regard to this particular stat, Tannehill played like a future franchise QB this year, whereas Chad Henne in 2009 played like a future non-franchise QB. I think you could also argue that Ryan Tannehill played even better as a rookie than Chad Henne did this year for Jacksonville, as a fifth-year player.

    Great Post, but my answer is no. I hope I eat crow though and hope I'm wrong.
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    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    Those numbers may hold some value but like the other poster I was confused regarding names included and names missing. If you're going back to 2003 then Byron Leftwich has to be included. He started the vast majority of games for Jacksonville, certainly more than Andrew Walter later did for Oakland, yet he's in the sample. Kyle Boller started more frequently as a rookie than Walter did.

    I've done tons of stuff like this, primarily team oriented and for betting purposes. The idea is to make sure it's not designed specifically toward a conclusion you already have in mind. For example, to always catch a team (or player) you know fell slightly on one side of a statistical barrier while rejecting another that you know fell slightly outside. I'm not saying you did that, far from it. But it's always a danger. In a breakdown like that a quarterback who consistently puts up 91 or 92 can look fantastic since every one of those games is embraced.
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  3. -23
    roy_miami's Avatar
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    Interesting stats, I guess the only conclusion you can draw from them at this point is he's wildly inconsistent from game to game.
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    Lets get those balls deep!!

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    I think he is franchise caliber. I just use the eyeball test, if he looks comfortable in the pocket, and looks the part when throwing then we are doing good. I see him as being better than the other rookie class QBs when all is said and done. Call me crazy, and maybe I am, but give him some weapons and I bet we are in the playoffs no problem next season. The AFC is getting weaker, in a couple years we may be the class of the AFC if we can get a good draft this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by roy_miami View Post
    Interesting stats, I guess the only conclusion you can draw from them at this point is he's wildly inconsistent from game to game, and thats not a good thing.
    well i would say he was a rookie with poor weapons so his numbers and performances are not exactly shocking. I think he is quite on pace to do well. I think the success of Wilson and Griffin make the bar seem way too high but as a rookie he looked fine
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    Great analysis with numbers to back up your point. I for one am very excited about the future of this team and that's something I haven't been in some time.

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    Great job shouright, thanks for all the work.
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    Thank you brother!

    Thanks to Like2God for the great Avatar/Sig!

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    Ford LogoDolphins HomerTannehill 17Snakes!Xbox Logo
    excellent post, the one thing i must disagree on is that cam newton is NOT a franchise quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by King Dingaling View Post
    To be a franchise QB, you have to lead your team to more victories than losses. You need atleast a 2:1 TD to Int ratio and a QB rating consistently in the high 80s or 90s. He has a ton of work to do but surrounding him with elite talent is the first step. I've seen some good and I've seen some very bad from him this year, which is expected from a rookie. I'm still waiting for that come from behind 2min drive to win the game. Luck, RG3, Wilson, and even Cousins have done that this year. I want to see a huge jump from last year and then maybe we can say he is the Franchise QB. Until then, he's just another guy with potential.
    Wow, then I guess the Colts royally messed up allowing Peyton Manning to continue after that rookie year, Drew Brees in his 1st year starting did not look promising, Brett Favre 1st full year stating looked in consistant, Eli Manning in his 1st year starting looked almost as bad as big brother.... also lets not forget QBs like Elway, Aikman, or Theismann to name a few others that did not start with a bang. Finally according to what you expect of a franchise QB, Luck should also not be starting.
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