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Thread: Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

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    Good read, thanks. RT is the best shot we have had since you know who.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy685 View Post
    This is said in a rather confusing way, so apologies if I misunderstood you, but I think it calls into question the metrics you are using to measure and ultimately crown "franchise quarterback"

    Simply put, Christian Ponder might be one of the 3 worst QBs in the NFL. I'm not even kidding. He lacks the arm, he lacks the progression in his reads, and his footwork is pretty questionable. He's carried by Percy Harvin and AdP. It's not even close.
    I know Shouright answered you, but you have to remember this is why you have sample sizes that are significant when you look at these things. The point, regardless of if you use WPA, QBR or best looking wife, is that there is a great enough sample size to negate one or a few faulty pieces of data. Having played with Shouright's numbers, I can confirm that even though I changed Ponder and Freeman to non-franchise and added Leftwich and Boller - the correlation simply between career QBR and "good games" moves from .7 to .68. Hence the non-significance of it. You could take those numbers and make Ponder worse than Jamarcus Russell and if the sample size is right - it shouldn't have a significant effect. That's the joy of stats. If you've done them right, it (hopefully) eliminates overreactions and incorrect opinions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tay0365 View Post
    Wow, then I guess the Colts royally messed up allowing Peyton Manning to continue after that rookie year, Drew Brees in his 1st year starting did not look promising, Brett Favre 1st full year stating looked in consistant, Eli Manning in his 1st year starting looked almost as bad as big brother.... also lets not forget QBs like Elway, Aikman, or Theismann to name a few others that did not start with a bang. Finally according to what you expect of a franchise QB, Luck should also not be starting.
    First of all, I never said he would never be a franchise QB. I said he has a lot of work to do, just like all the Hall of Fame QBs you listed as having rough first years. Comparing him to the Mannings, Aikman, Favre, Elway, and Brees is absolutely ridiculous!!! 10 Super bowl victories between those 6 QBs. I want Tannehill to become a great QB as much as anyone. Just saying he needs to work really hard because he didn't look that good from week to week. I realize he's a rookie but don't say that to RG3, Luck, or Wilson. They all lead their teams into the playoffs while we're debating whether Tannehill is any good.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    There are ways of going about determining who is and is not a franchise QB other than by using QB rating. However, QB rating has what we call construct validity and predictive validity, insofar as it 1) strongly correlates with the consensus perceptions of QB quality (despite possible exceptions to the rule, such as Ponder, perhaps; i.e., no correlation is perfect), and 2) is strongly correlated with winning.

    In other words, the QBs who are widely thought to have the best ability typically have the best QB ratings (though there are exceptions to the rule), and QB rating is also strongly correlated with winning. There may be other ways of determining who is and is not a franchise QB, but I'm not sure those ways will have both of those important characteristics.
    QBR or QB Rating? They are different things, remember.

    Both are somewhat misleading metrics because they do not take into account dummy statistics and ignore other variables.

    Case in point - a 5 yard dump off to Percy Harvin taken 35 yards for a touchdown is the same rating as a 35 yard bullet by Andrew Luck down the beam just over a TE's shoulder, squeezing between two CBs.

    You want crazy... look at Football Outsiders ratings of the QBs before the draft this year. They had RG3 as the best, then Luck, then Tanne, then Weeden

    Their big outlier was Russel Wilson, who they had as one of the best QB prospects in a long time based on his production increases year to year. It's rather fascinating how they pretty much nailed them all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy685 View Post
    QBR or QB Rating? They are different things, remember.

    Both are somewhat misleading metrics because they do not take into account dummy statistics and ignore other variables.

    Case in point - a 5 yard dump off to Percy Harvin taken 35 yards for a touchdown is the same rating as a 35 yard bullet by Andrew Luck down the beam just over a TE's shoulder, squeezing between two CBs.

    You want crazy... look at Football Outsiders ratings of the QBs before the draft this year. They had RG3 as the best, then Luck, then Tanne, then Weeden

    Their big outlier was Russel Wilson, who they had as one of the best QB prospects in a long time based on his production increases year to year. It's rather fascinating how they pretty much nailed them all.
    Regardless, the traditional QB rating (not ESPN's newfangled version) has both construct and predictive validity. It's strongly correlated with the consensus perceptions of QBs' individual ability (despite some exceptions to the rule; no correlation is perfect), as well as with winning. Those particular strengths relegate its weaknesses to a level of unimportance and irrelevance IMO.
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    Ryan tannehill...like a boss

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    using qbr as the sole bench mark for a qbs performance in a game can be deceiving...
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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    Quote Originally Posted by hooshoops View Post
    using qbr as the sole bench mark for a qbs performance in a game can be deceiving...
    True, but there is no analysis of "a [single] game" going on here.
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    FH

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy685 View Post
    Simply put, Christian Ponder might be one of the 3 worst QBs in the NFL. I'm not even kidding. He lacks the arm, he lacks the progression in his reads, and his footwork is pretty questionable. He's carried by Percy Harvin and AdP. It's not even close.
    I enjoy your analysis, so I'm curious. Who are your bottom 5 QB:s and in what order? I'm certainly not convinced he is good enough, but its so hard to tell bad from worse.

    To me, Sanchez and Gabbert are the worst two. But where does Ponder rank among the likes of Skelton, Kolb, Quin, Cassel, Vick, and Henne?
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    1972 Dolphins Logo
    Christian Ponder?

    Edit: Never mind. This is what I get for following a link.
    "If foot fetish videos of your wife surface online, and the voice of the cameraman sounds like you, just admit that it was you ... because the alternative is that someone else was filming foot fetish videos of your wife, and I'm pretty sure that's worse." - Bill Simmons's enduring lesson to Rex Ryan.
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    Great analyses. Every game I watch with RT; even last year I would never dread him making a major mistake. Only time this year I got concerned about him was his long throws that he was missing and when he holds the ball very long and was getting sacked. There were a couple of games he kept missing Wallace and a couple of his throws were off target. But he corrected it in the same game and got going.

    Rich Gannon and Phil Simms are positive about RT; lots of respect for both of them. Rich Gannon should have been in the SuperBowl when the Patriots got that ref call. For some reason Marino is holding back his support for RT; but the last couple of weeks he is more enthusiastic.
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