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Thread: Geno Smith, Glennon, Barkley and Wilson: A Metrics Breakdown and Discussion

  1. -11
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    To me, Mike Glennon is extremely overrated.

    I get it. He's got a big arm, he played in an offense that actually resembles a downfield-based NFL offense, and he made some big time plays this year. For stretches of games he looks like Hercules at quarterback. I get it.

    But he clearly holds onto the ball too long and has trouble when put into situations where you need to speed up his decision making. It's no coincidence he was right up there for one of the most sacked QBs in college football this year, nor that he had the 2nd most fumbles in all college football this year behind only Taylor Martinez (a running quarterback).

    He goes through stretches of games with just awful decision making and execution all the way around. He'll not see a blitz pre-snap, hold onto the ball way too long, make a decision that is really iffy based on the coverage, or just throw a football that (as we saw in the All Star Skills Challenge tonight which he flunked mightily) couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.

    When you speed up the game on him in the pros, he's going to fall apart. He is no better a quarterback prospect than Nick Foles was a year ago, and might be considerably worse.

    And you're right I don't know why Matt Barkley gets overlooked. Two of the previous (valid) criticisms of the guy were that he's not completing his downfield throws and he's performing poorly in the 4th quarter. So this year he has the best accuracy (by the numbers) of any of the top four quarterbacks at 20+ yards, and he has a 109.0 passer rating in the 4th quarter.

    He took two of his weaknesses and completely flipped them around into strengths. And instead of being met with appreciation, people (absurdly and inaccurately) have him slipping out of the 1st round altogether.
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  2. -12
    NUGap's Avatar
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    Interesting on Glennon. Other than the numbers, I haven't really looked at him too much. I did notice the absurd amount of bad decisions when I was watching. You'd see excellent throws and then you'd wonder what he was thinking on the next throw. I keep getting slightly enticed by the fact that he's making far more "NFL throws" than most of the other guys, but if you're saying a turtle is faster than a snail - that's not saying much at all (I'm not sure where that analogy came from).

    I was thinking about this the other day. If you're an NFL coach, all other things being equal, would you rather have a guy who overthrows his receivers consistently (Mike Glennon) or makes some bad decisions to throw into double coverage (Geno Smith). Assuming they're equal on all other factors, which is easier to coach out? I'm not sure about the answer to that question, as my quarterback coaching knowledge is wanting.

    On the Matt Barkley front, I'm curious about the criticism too. I've seen comments on fan blogs eschewing Barkley as a prospect for having a "noodle arm" but then they'll advocate for Tyler Wilson. I was watching the Senior Bowl right after breaking down Tyler Wilson and saw his deep throw. As soon as he threw it, I called out that it was going to be underthrown. People keep telling me to go back to last year's tape and maybe I should, but I can't see how that's going to convince me he's not going to be constantly skipping balls in the dirt in the NFL. By no means am I someone who is impressed by pure arm strength (see Bray, Tyler), but damn you have to be able to get it there.

    Here's my (super sketchy) calculations of relative fan interest in each QB prospect:
    Geno Smith - 39%
    Mike Glennon - 26%
    Tyler Wilson - 21%
    Matt Barkley - 17%

    I don't understand...
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  3. -13
    ticophin's Avatar
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    Will Barkley be the best player on the board when we pick? Is he the kind of player to turn a franchise around, like Wilson with Sea? With 2 2nd rders and 2 3rd rders, would it be smart to pick up Barkley as a back up/competition for Tanny for the next 10-15 years? Now, Imagine picking WR-TE with our 2nds, CB-T-G with our 3rd and 4ths rders...Is picking Barkley a waste of a first rounder, or having quality at the most important position in football, all but assured for the immediate future of "our" franchise?? If we play our cards right in FAgency, with WRs like Bowe, Jennings, Wallace, and Amendola available...with our multiple early picks, suddenly picking up Barkley isnt such a crazy idea, especially with Devlin as our only backup (I expect Moore to walk, he might want to have the opportunity to start)...
    Last edited by ticophin; 02-03-2013 at 12:34 PM.
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  4. -14
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    The arm strength thing with Barkley has reached ridiculous proportions with the fan base.

    This is a video and a play that I like to reference a lot:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...jfEyBgc#t=161s

    This throw is 56 to 57 yards through the air. The throw has a low trajectory and hits Marquise Lee in stride. Yesterday during the All Star Skills Challenge, Mike Glennon TOPPED OUT at 56 yards. And that was in a pressureless, padless, non-game environment with a full run-up to the trhow. Matt Barkley actually did this during a game.

    And you know what? I see throws of that distance from Barkley all the time. Maybe once a game. That's way above norm. In an entire season of video on Ryan Mallett the longest throw I tracked of his was between 45 and 50 yards. Quarterbacks don't regularly reach for 55 to 60 yards functionally speaking and most offenses wouldn't ask it.

    The thing to take away from this is there's practically no functional distance in a football game that Matt Barkley hasn't already proven he can't hit.

    Do his throws always have the ripping power or low trajectory of Glennon? No, and that's not really the point. Glennon has a better natural arm. The point is that Barkley doesn't need to have Glennon's arm in order to be an NFL franchise quarterback, and his arm is so good that it is on occasion outperforming that of Glennon's. If that's the case, he's got plenty of arm.
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  5. -15
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    I just worked up Nassib and it's puzzling to say the least. I'll post a full breakdown of Nassib, Dysert, Manuel (per requests of some people), but for now.

    None of Nassib's completion percentages were below average from last year's class. His deep (20+) completion percentage was 62.5%, which is nuts, only behind RGIII last year. He went to the 11-20 yard range 27% of the time, which is only below Weeden from last year.

    Yet the average distance of his throw is 5 yards (makes sense given the amount of 5 yard slants 'Cuse ran) and his 3rd down completion percentage is 50%. That's worse than the next guy, Geno, by 10%. I'm not sure what to make of Nassib. Depending on what stats you place importance on, he could be the best QB in the class or have major liabilities in "clutch" moments.

    EDIT: Was just rewatching the first day of Senior Bowl practice. Heard Mayock compare Nassib to Kirk Cousins. Maybe the comparison in terms of him being a "smart" QB is legit, but I think it's unfair to stick him in with Cousins. When I did Cousin's breakdown last year, he was slightly below average at 20+ throws and downright bad at 11-20 yard throws. Again, maybe Nassib doesn't have the Glennon arm, but in the numbers he was excellent deep and average in the intermediate. Nassib's completion percentages are better in every area once you factor out drops and shows the ability to hit intermediate zones/ deep zones that Cousins didn't.
    Last edited by NUGap; 02-04-2013 at 04:52 AM.
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  6. -16
    ChambersWI's Avatar
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    not to do with numbers, but a huge reason Barkley has fallen out of favor with some fanbases is that he has handled some non-Cali sports reporters and people on twitter very poorly. If you don't like something he says or does, he becomes very passive aggressive and smarmy at times.

    That and people see how this year's Trojan's team acted and they get turned off by it (though to be fair, this team was filled with Punks. There was even a fight after their bowl game because a few Frosh called some upperclassmen out on not being leaders)
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  7. -17
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Nassib is an intriguing prospect but the reach to put him in the 1st round in my opinion is a function of the comparison with the rest of the quarterbacks in this class, most of whom aren't good enough.

    E.J. Manuel intrigues me among this class of incomplete quarterbacks just because he has some of the most complete raw skills, though his inconsistency is there for all to see. Tracking his production in FSU's offense might not yield the predictive results one would think, as FSU runs a very predictable, easy to defend offense. Jimbo Fisher should have been fired long ago as their offensive coordinator, let alone hired as their head coach. And that's not just me talking about their offense. Back in 2011 we spoke with freshman Oklahoma linebacker Tom Wort about Christian Ponder and he told us that Ponder is better than people think and will benefit a lot when he gets out of that offense. He said they were easily able to predict the offense, that there was no imagination to it and it just wasn't very fundamentally challenging to a defense. With the way NFL offenses are adapting to guys with multiple skills like Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, E.J. Manuel is one of the only QBs in this class that really presents that kind of array of skills and one wonders if after some years of coaching a good offensive coordinator couldn't make something out of him.

    Manuel also notches off some mocre traditional standards which used to mean something. He won 12 games this year. Over the last two years he's gone 21-5 in games in which he's played a lot, over his four years at FSU you'd probably say he's 26-7 as the game's primary QB, and that includes being 4-0 in bowl games. He's got a career 67% completion rate. He's 6043 and 237 lbs, with over 10 inch hands. He showed up at the Senior Bowl and won the game MVP. And of course he's a heck of an athlete that will test well.

    These are not necessarily things that make a guy automatically good at the next level, but they are things that tended to be appreciated in the past, I think for good reason. One of the reasons I liked the 2011 QB class so much even though everyone loved to hate on them was because they notched all kinds of these traditional measures. Newton went undefeated in his final year. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick won 13 games a piece. Speaking of the guys that I think most considered to be vying for position at the top of that Draft (Newton, Mallett, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, Locker, Stanzi, Yates), most of them were 6'4" or better with 220+ lbs of solid weight on them. All but I think Locker notched at least 60 percent completion in their careers. More than half of them tested out physically like wide receivers, they were so mobile. None of them really had weak arm strength.

    So I don't find it so surprising that four of that class have already become successful starters (way higher than normal average draft class), and that the jury is still out on several more. I think Gabbert is already flaming out, and I think Locker is halfway there (which doesn't surprise me). We've yet to get the opportunity to see on Mallett, Stanzi or Yates. I think Mallett and Yates could surprise when they get their chances.
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  8. -18
    Fin Thirteen's Avatar
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    Those stats shock me.

    I'd have expected to see Barkley come out badly on deep throw accuracy and Geno to shine on the 10-deep throws. Too often I see Barkley hurl a pass upfield where it misses his receiver by a clear 3 or 40 yards. When he misses his man, he really misses him - from what I've seen. So to see him considerably more accurate on the deep ball than the others is a pleasant surprise to me.

    People are asking how come nobody is talking about Barkley. I'm wondering why people aren't talking more about Smith. He's the best QB by a distance in the draft. I'm not sure where he would have gone last season, but this season he's the best by a mile.

    Geno has such wonderful touch. He just lands the ball in the catch radius so invitingly it seems harder to drop it than catch it. He stays fundamentally sound in his throws, regardless of the circumstances or the pressure. You see the same consistency in Bailey as a receiver, always fundamentally right with his footwork and routes, always smooth and unfussed. I bet WVU have some very interesting and demanding practice methods.

    What Geno has is a valuable commodity. That poise, that accuracy, that touch. Impossible to teach from scratch. He's going to make some GM a very happy man - in a season or two. So I'm amazed to read his deep accuracy is actually fairly poor - I'd never have predicted it. While Barkley's long accuracy stats bump him up in my opinion, I'm still buying Smith. Hate to see him go to the Jets.
    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
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  9. -19
    Fin Thirteen's Avatar
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    I like Nassib. A leader with a nice, quick accurate delivery. I wouldn't even take him in the second round though. As CK says, it's a case of his peers making him look more attractive a pick than he really is.
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  10. -20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fin Thirteen View Post
    People are asking how come nobody is talking about Barkley. I'm wondering why people aren't talking more about Smith. He's the best QB by a distance in the draft. I'm not sure where he would have gone last season, but this season he's the best by a mile.
    .
    People are talking about Geno. I posted this over at Arrowhead Pride, on the SBNation network and chiefs fans are rabid talking about Geno. I don't think he's getting the pub in the media, but fans are dedicating pages upon pages to arguing over whether Geno is worth the 1st pick. There's two separate camps, the "Geno is a system QB" or "Geno is the second coming" people. Both have claimed that the posted stats have proven their point.

    Interesting on Nassib. Right now I'd take Nassib in a heartbeat over Kirk Cousins (without knowledge of Cousins' NFL stint) in a draft. Cousins was drafted in the 4th, so I'd be looking at Nassib at worst in the 3rd. I don't think Nassib is the best QB by any means, but I'd definitely be taking him over Tyler Wilson. I think I could put Nassib as high as the 3rd best QB after looking at him a bit more. It surely doesn't make him a bona fide first rounder, but QBs getting pushed up the board is a sign of our times.
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