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Thread: Signing both Mike Wallace & Greg Jennings/The Pat Riley effect

  1. -41
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings the football equivalent of Lebron James and Chris Bosh?

    Hardly.
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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  2. -42
    dcnr226's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings the football equivalent of Lebron James and Chris Bosh?

    Hardly.
    Let me spell this out more simply..

    You create cap space. Instead of constantly trying to "contend", you sacrifice 1 year (as Ireland just did), lose Brandon Marshall an Vontae Davis, so that you have cap space the next year. You know that if you get aggressive, and have a promising team, that elite players will choose Miami over other destinations, perhaps even for less money, because of our lack of state income tax. You use this to your advantage. So you make a splash, and you sign Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings, which in addition to creating excitement, makes football sense, as it allows you to use draft picks and remaining money on other positions, and not draft WRs who might or might not pan out. Ed Reed, Tony Gonzalez..guys like that start seeing the Dolphins as attractive, bc they see 1-a chance to finish their careers in warm, beautiful Miami and 2-play for a team on the rise..similar to Ray Allen and Mike Miller. You usher in this new era of Dolphins football on an exciting note. THAT is the parallell with the Heat and Riley i was drawing. Not Lebron Wade and Bosh...but the creation of cap space and using Miami as a recruiting tool if you just sacrifice a season and follow it up by creating some excitement down here.
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  3. -43
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    1. Trading Vontae Davis didn't create a lick of cap space. He was set to cost us like a million bucks this year. Pittance. Tying him into this theory is folly.

    2. Signing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings doesn't open any kind of flood gates whatsoever on free agents thinking they suddenly need to play for the Miami Dolphins because Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings are there. You keep saying you're not calling them the equivalent of Lebron and Bosh but you ARE. Players want to play for the Heat because they know Lebron, Bosh and Wade are there and that with those three players alone you're going to contend for championships. You think signing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings will have anywhere even CLOSE to that effect?

    3. All of the things that you talked about with respect to taxes, sunshine, etc making Miami an attractive destination...are already in effect. They'll be factors whether Jennings and Wallace come here or not. So they really have nothing to do with your theory.

    4. The "attractiveness" factor really only applies to free agents anyway and there's some evidence that a steady inflow of free agents doesn't do you any good in salary cap football anyway.

    This theory is all kinds of wrong, IMO. The only reason you sign Jennings and Wallace is if it makes sense to you from a football standpoint. And maybe it does. Who knows. It depends on your evaluation of the individual players.
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    1- Vontae Davis was deemed not part of our future and would be a free agent after this year, so they traded him for a future 2nd and 5th, or whatever. That's trading the now for the future.

    2- Yes, i do. I think the Miami Dolphins signing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings would put the league on notice, and I think free agents would look at Miami as much more desirable bc of the reasons listed above, bc we now have exciting weapons, and bc we have a defense that is stout.

    3- You're right. Miami has always been an attractive destination for players. But players have known we weren't legit contenders for years now. This would change that.

    4- I agree in part with this. Your argument has merit. Free agency isn't the answer...i agree with that. But at skill positions, with Ireland's track record in re: skill positions, i much rather pay more for proven guys than draft a WR in the first or second round (a 2nd can still be spent on a Tavon Austin in my scenario anyways). Add in the fact that we'd still have near 20 million in cap space, and there is no good reason not to acquire guys that have done it in the league.
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    If we were to sign Wallace & Jennings, i'd even advocate trading up in the draft to try and secure a Bjorn Werner or Dee Milliner. We would have much more room to maneuver knowing that the WR positions are ​set.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcnr226 View Post
    1- Vontae Davis was deemed not part of our future and would be a free agent after this year, so they traded him for a future 2nd and 5th, or whatever. That's trading the now for the future.
    And it has nothing to do with your Pat Riley Effect theory. Whatsoever.

    2- Yes, i do. I think the Miami Dolphins signing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings would put the league on notice, and I think free agents would look at Miami as much more desirable bc of the reasons listed above, bc we now have exciting weapons, and bc we have a defense that is stout.
    Grossly overestimated effect, IMO. Agree to disagree.

    3- You're right. Miami has always been an attractive destination for players. But players have known we weren't legit contenders for years now. This would change that.
    Wins are the only thing that will change that.

    4- I agree in part with this. Your argument has merit. Free agency isn't the answer...i agree with that. But at skill positions, with Ireland's track record in re: skill positions, i much rather pay more for proven guys than draft a WR in the first or second round (a 2nd can still be spent on a Tavon Austin in my scenario anyways). Add in the fact that we'd still have near 20 million in cap space, and there is no good reason not to acquire guys that have done it in the league.
    I think people commonly over-estimate the return on investment in free agency because of this persistent but misguided concept of buying "proven" players. Nothing is ever proven where it concerns predicting the future.

    Return on investment for free agent receivers surprisingly matches the return on investment for draft picks at the position.

    Yeah sometimes you have Vincent Jacksons and Anquan Boldins...successful free agent pickups. But you've also got Robert Meachems, Laurent Robinsons, Brandon Gibsons, etc.

    Here is a list of free agent transactions from 2008 to 2012, broken up by success. These do not count trades or cuts. These are expiring contracts.

    Wastes of Time & Resources
    2008: Sam Aiken from Buffalo to New England
    2008: Bernard Berrian from Chicago to Minnesota
    2008: Marty Booker from Miami to Chicago
    2008: Bryant Johnson from Arizona to San Francisco
    2008: Eddie Kennison from Kansas City to St. Louis
    2008: Ashley Lelie from San Francisco to Oakland
    2008: Brandon Lloyd from Washington to Chicago
    2008: Justin McCareins from New York Jets to Tennessee
    2008: Jerry Porter from Oakland to Jacksonville
    2008: Koren Robinson from Green Bay to Seattle
    2008: Donte Stallworth from New England to Cleveland
    2008: Javon Walker from Denver to Oakland
    2009: Hank Baskett from Philadelphia to Indianapolis
    2009: Laveranues Coles from New York Jets to Cincinnati
    2009: Mike Furrey from Detroit to Cleveland
    2009: Joey Galloway from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh
    2009: Torry Holt from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati to Seattle
    2009: Bryant Johnson from San Francisco to Detroit
    2009: Terrell Owens from Dallas to Buffalo
    2009: Kelley Washington from New England to Baltimore
    2009: Roydell Williams from Tennessee to Washington
    2010: Arnaz Battle from San Francisco to Pittsburgh
    2010: Antonio Bryant from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
    2010: Nate Burleson from Seattle to Detroit
    2010: Mike Furrey from Cleveland to Washington
    2010: Joey Galloway from Pittsburgh to Washington
    2010: Jason Hill from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2010: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Seattle to Baltimore
    2010: Matt Jones from Jacksonville to Cincinnati
    2010: Randy Moss from Minnesota to Tennessee
    2010: Antwaan Randle El from Washington to Pittsburgh
    2010: Josh Reed from Buffalo to San Diego
    2010: Devin Thomas from Carolina to New York Giants
    2010: Jerheme Urban from Arizona to Kansas City
    2010: Bobby Wade from Kansas City to Washington
    2010: Demetrius Williams from Baltimore to Cleveland
    2011: Seyi Ajirotutu from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Devin Aromashodu from Chicago to Minnesota
    2011: Donnie Avery from St. Louis to Tennessee
    2011: Steve Breaston from Arizona to Kansas City
    2011: Plaxico Burress from New York Giants to New York Jets
    2011: Jericho Cotchery from New York Jets to Pittsburgh Steelers
    2011: Craig "Buster" Davis from San Diego to Buffalo
    2011: Braylon Edwards from New York Jets to San Francisco
    2011: James Hardy from Buffalo to Baltimore
    2011: Johnnie Lee Higgins from Oakland to Philadelphia
    2011: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Baltimore to Oakland
    2011: Michael Jenkins from Atlanta to Minnesota
    2011: Bryant Johnson from Detroit to Houston
    2011: Sinorice Moss from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Legedu Naanee from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Taylor Price from New England to Jacksonville
    2011: Mike Sims-Walker from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2011: Brad Smith from New York Jets to Buffalo
    2011: Steve E. Smith from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Brandon Tate from New England to Cincinnati
    2011: Roy Williams from Dallas to Chicago
    2012: Seyi Ajirotutu from Carolina to San Diego
    2012: Plaxico Burress from New York Jets to Pittsburgh
    2012: Andre Caldwell from Cincinnati to Denver
    2012: Braylon Edwards from San Francisco to Seattle
    2012: Braylon Edwards from Seattle to New York Jets
    2012: Clyde Gates from Miami to New York Jets
    2012: Robert Meachem from New Orleans to San Diego
    2012: Carlton Mitchell from Cleveland to Jacksonville
    2012: Josh Morgan from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2012: Laurent Robinson from Dallas to Jacksonville
    2012: Brian Robiskie from Jacksonville to Detroit
    2012: Eddie Royal from Denver to San Diego
    2012: Greg Salas from New England to Philadelphia
    2012: Dane Sanzenbacher from Chicago to Cincinnati
    2012: Chaz Schilens from Oakland to New York Jets
    2012: Jordan Shipley from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
    2012: Jerome Simpson from Cincinnati to Minnesota
    2012: Steve E. Smith from Philadelphis to St. Louis
    2012: Mike Thomas from Jacksonville to Detroit

    Mixed Success Relative to Price
    2008: Isaac Bruce from St. Louis to San Francisco
    2008: Antonio Bryant from Dallas to Tampa Bay
    2008: Muhsin Muhammad from Chicago to Carolina
    2009: Jabar Gaffney from New England to Denver
    2009: Brandon Lloyd from Chicago to Denver
    2010: Terrell Owens from Buffalo to Cincinnati
    2011: Sidney Rice from Minnesota to Seattle
    2012: Danario Alexander from St. Louis to San Diego
    2012: Donnie Avery from Tennessee to Indianapolis
    2012: Pierre Garcon from Indianapolis to Washington
    2012: Trindon Holliday from Houston to Denver
    2012: Jacoby Jones from Houston to Baltimore
    2012: Brandon Lloyd from St. Louis to New England
    2012: Mario Manningham from New York Giants to San Francisco
    2012: Brandon Stokley from New York Giants to Denver Broncos

    Undeniably Successful Signings
    2009: Nate Washington from Pittsburgh to Tennessee
    2012: Vincent Jackson from San Diego to Tampa Bay
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  7. -47
    dcnr226's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    And it has nothing to do with your Pat Riley Effect theory. Whatsoever.



    Grossly overestimated effect, IMO. Agree to disagree.



    Wins are the only thing that will change that.



    I think people commonly over-estimate the return on investment in free agency because of this persistent but misguided concept of buying "proven" players. Nothing is ever proven where it concerns predicting the future.

    Return on investment for free agent receivers surprisingly matches the return on investment for draft picks at the position.

    Yeah sometimes you have Vincent Jacksons and Anquan Boldins...successful free agent pickups. But you've also got Robert Meachems, Laurent Robinsons, Brandon Gibsons, etc.

    Here is a list of free agent transactions from 2008 to 2012, broken up by success. These do not count trades or cuts. These are expiring contracts.

    Wastes of Time & Resources
    2008: Sam Aiken from Buffalo to New England
    2008: Bernard Berrian from Chicago to Minnesota
    2008: Marty Booker from Miami to Chicago
    2008: Bryant Johnson from Arizona to San Francisco
    2008: Eddie Kennison from Kansas City to St. Louis
    2008: Ashley Lelie from San Francisco to Oakland
    2008: Brandon Lloyd from Washington to Chicago
    2008: Justin McCareins from New York Jets to Tennessee
    2008: Jerry Porter from Oakland to Jacksonville
    2008: Koren Robinson from Green Bay to Seattle
    2008: Donte Stallworth from New England to Cleveland
    2008: Javon Walker from Denver to Oakland
    2009: Hank Baskett from Philadelphia to Indianapolis
    2009: Laveranues Coles from New York Jets to Cincinnati
    2009: Mike Furrey from Detroit to Cleveland
    2009: Joey Galloway from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh
    2009: Torry Holt from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati to Seattle
    2009: Bryant Johnson from San Francisco to Detroit
    2009: Terrell Owens from Dallas to Buffalo
    2009: Kelley Washington from New England to Baltimore
    2009: Roydell Williams from Tennessee to Washington
    2010: Arnaz Battle from San Francisco to Pittsburgh
    2010: Antonio Bryant from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
    2010: Nate Burleson from Seattle to Detroit
    2010: Mike Furrey from Cleveland to Washington
    2010: Joey Galloway from Pittsburgh to Washington
    2010: Jason Hill from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2010: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Seattle to Baltimore
    2010: Matt Jones from Jacksonville to Cincinnati
    2010: Randy Moss from Minnesota to Tennessee
    2010: Antwaan Randle El from Washington to Pittsburgh
    2010: Josh Reed from Buffalo to San Diego
    2010: Devin Thomas from Carolina to New York Giants
    2010: Jerheme Urban from Arizona to Kansas City
    2010: Bobby Wade from Kansas City to Washington
    2010: Demetrius Williams from Baltimore to Cleveland
    2011: Seyi Ajirotutu from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Devin Aromashodu from Chicago to Minnesota
    2011: Donnie Avery from St. Louis to Tennessee
    2011: Steve Breaston from Arizona to Kansas City
    2011: Plaxico Burress from New York Giants to New York Jets
    2011: Jericho Cotchery from New York Jets to Pittsburgh Steelers
    2011: Craig "Buster" Davis from San Diego to Buffalo
    2011: Braylon Edwards from New York Jets to San Francisco
    2011: James Hardy from Buffalo to Baltimore
    2011: Johnnie Lee Higgins from Oakland to Philadelphia
    2011: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Baltimore to Oakland
    2011: Michael Jenkins from Atlanta to Minnesota
    2011: Bryant Johnson from Detroit to Houston
    2011: Sinorice Moss from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Legedu Naanee from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Taylor Price from New England to Jacksonville
    2011: Mike Sims-Walker from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2011: Brad Smith from New York Jets to Buffalo
    2011: Steve E. Smith from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Brandon Tate from New England to Cincinnati
    2011: Roy Williams from Dallas to Chicago
    2012: Seyi Ajirotutu from Carolina to San Diego
    2012: Plaxico Burress from New York Jets to Pittsburgh
    2012: Andre Caldwell from Cincinnati to Denver
    2012: Braylon Edwards from San Francisco to Seattle
    2012: Braylon Edwards from Seattle to New York Jets
    2012: Clyde Gates from Miami to New York Jets
    2012: Robert Meachem from New Orleans to San Diego
    2012: Carlton Mitchell from Cleveland to Jacksonville
    2012: Josh Morgan from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2012: Laurent Robinson from Dallas to Jacksonville
    2012: Brian Robiskie from Jacksonville to Detroit
    2012: Eddie Royal from Denver to San Diego
    2012: Greg Salas from New England to Philadelphia
    2012: Dane Sanzenbacher from Chicago to Cincinnati
    2012: Chaz Schilens from Oakland to New York Jets
    2012: Jordan Shipley from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
    2012: Jerome Simpson from Cincinnati to Minnesota
    2012: Steve E. Smith from Philadelphis to St. Louis
    2012: Mike Thomas from Jacksonville to Detroit

    Mixed Success Relative to Price
    2008: Isaac Bruce from St. Louis to San Francisco
    2008: Antonio Bryant from Dallas to Tampa Bay
    2008: Muhsin Muhammad from Chicago to Carolina
    2009: Jabar Gaffney from New England to Denver
    2009: Brandon Lloyd from Chicago to Denver
    2010: Terrell Owens from Buffalo to Cincinnati
    2011: Sidney Rice from Minnesota to Seattle
    2012: Danario Alexander from St. Louis to San Diego
    2012: Donnie Avery from Tennessee to Indianapolis
    2012: Pierre Garcon from Indianapolis to Washington
    2012: Trindon Holliday from Houston to Denver
    2012: Jacoby Jones from Houston to Baltimore
    2012: Brandon Lloyd from St. Louis to New England
    2012: Mario Manningham from New York Giants to San Francisco
    2012: Brandon Stokley from New York Giants to Denver Broncos

    Undeniably Successful Signings
    2009: Nate Washington from Pittsburgh to Tennessee
    2012: Vincent Jackson from San Diego to Tampa Bay
    You definitely do your homework, but i don't see anyone on the "waste of time and resources" list that were nearly as good as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings at their respective times.

    Regarding your comment that Vontae doesn't fit the analogy... Michael Beasley.

    And regarding your comment that "only wins can change that"...I agree. But we aren't coming off a winning season, so the only way to prove to free agents now that we are serious is to spend and acquire high end talent. The league respects the Dolphins defense. Lets get the offense some studs seeing as 1- we can afford to and 2- we can use our draft picks for guys who are less likely to be "misses", like a 6'6" defensive end or a cornerback that was able to shut things down in the SEC. I love what I see from Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. I just trust Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings to continue their success in the league more than I trust Patterson and Allen to translate to the NFL.
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  8. -48
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcnr226 View Post
    You definitely do your homework, but i don't see anyone on the "waste of time and resources" list that were nearly as good as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings at their respective times.

    Regarding your comment that Vontae doesn't fit the analogy... Michael Beasley.

    And regarding your comment that "only wins can change that"...I agree. But we aren't coming off a winning season, so the only way to prove to free agents now that we are serious is to spend and acquire high end talent. The league respects the Dolphins defense. Lets get the offense some studs seeing as 1- we can afford to and 2- we can use our draft picks for guys who are less likely to be "misses", like a 6'6" defensive end or a cornerback that was able to shut things down in the SEC. I love what I see from Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. I just trust Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings to continue their success in the league more than I trust Patterson and Allen to translate to the NFL.
    You're ignoring the most likely possibility.

    There IS NO way for us to achieve the effect you desire. You do it by establishing a pattern of winning, or you don't do it. Period. You've either already got the juice, or you don't. You're not going to get it all of a sudden by paying up for two free agent wide receivers.

    Would probably have the exact opposite effect as a matter of fact. Look at Washington. They built a reputation based on free agent activities and not based on their winning record. Did free agents try to go to Washington because of that? You bet. TO GET PAID. They looked at Washington like a broken ATM machine. None of them came even close to offering Washington below-market deals to play there.
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  9. -49
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    There is no parallel to nba . That league is a mess with teams throwing seasons just to get cap space. Definately needs to be fixed. There is no building of teams for most part in nba its all about free agency and some cities have no chance to compete for free agents
    When Death Smiles Upon You the Infantryman smiles back
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  10. -50
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    You guys can debate the theory all day but all I care about is are signing both of them going to help our team? I think so Wallace and Jennings are both very good players who are worth the money. Tannehill will have reliable weapons and we would still have money to resign randy Starks and Clemons then Address corner.
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