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Thread: A Metrics Breakdown of Patterson, Allen, Hopkins and Bailey

  1. -21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    I think Markus Wheaton is going to have to end up in this "top tier" study. Same with Terrance Williams.

    I think Cordarrelle Patterson will solidify himself as a top level prospect and may even go top 10 above where Miami is picking. I think the other guy that will sneak into the 1st round is Markus Wheaton who showed at the Senior Bowl that you wouldn't be remiss in thinking of him as another Santonio Holmes, only with DeSean Jackson's pure speed and (we hope) a better overall attitude.

    It's hard to say what will happen to Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins once they go to the Combine and show up as just sort of average athletes. Allen will be better than average once size is taken into consideration but I don't see him Julio Jonesing it up.

    Terrance Williams' pure combination of size, speed, ball skills and production should put a floor on his draft stock at around the mid-2nd round.

    Stedman Bailey remains a wildcard. As does Quinton Patton. A stronger than expected showing at the Combine from either player could vault them very high, but a weaker showing could propel either player into the 3rd round.
    I'm really hoping that Wheaton is at least available at 42.
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    I'm really hoping that Wheaton is at least available at 42.
    After the Senior Bowl he had, I'm really not sure you can count on that.

    Drafting a wide receiver is a necessary evil.

    It's necessary because, as we saw in the Super Bowl and all throughout the playoffs, you need guys that can make plays for your quarterback. When you don't have those guys you're dead in the water. No matter what anyone says you can't get by with marginal talent and "savvy" at the position. You need play makers. On a 3rd & Short the coverage dictates Joe Flacco go one-on-one to the outside with Boldin and he throws up a 50/50 ball that Boldin comes down with. When the Giants win the Super Bowl against the Patriots last year, it's on a Mario Manningham catch that Eli Manning had no business throwing based on the coverage, but he trusted Manningham to make a play for him, and he did. When the Cardinals come back on the Steelers it's Larry Fitzgerald being ridiculous. And when the Steelers somehow come back on the Cardinals at the very end, it's a beautiful Santonio Holmes fingertip-to-toetip play in the end zone.

    But it's also evil...because when you look at the straight percentages, it's flat out daunting. So many of the guys we're talking about and getting excited about will amount to NOTHING at the next level. It's just a fact of the draft. So because it's so inherently risky, teams try and take risk off the board any way they can. Being an incredible athlete from a size/speed standpoint takes risk off the board. A guy is usually going to be at least SOMETHING when he's an incredible athlete. But pure speed and agility also takes risk off the board because you know if you teach the guy right he's going to be able to separate.

    What I'm getting at is Markus Wheaton with his pure speed and agility, both of which he showed at Oregon State and then he showed against higher caliber competition at the Senior Bowl, makes him a relatively safe guy. Not all guys with his speed and agility have had the chances he's had to show that he's a safe prospect, but one way or another he's gotten those chances and he's taken them...so I think of him as a relatively safe bet. And if he's a relatively safe bet then teams trying to take risk off the board are going to steer toward him, IMO.
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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  3. -23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    After the Senior Bowl he had, I'm really not sure you can count on that.

    Drafting a wide receiver is a necessary evil.

    It's necessary because, as we saw in the Super Bowl and all throughout the playoffs, you need guys that can make plays for your quarterback. When you don't have those guys you're dead in the water. No matter what anyone says you can't get by with marginal talent and "savvy" at the position. You need play makers. On a 3rd & Short the coverage dictates Joe Flacco go one-on-one to the outside with Boldin and he throws up a 50/50 ball that Boldin comes down with. When the Giants win the Super Bowl against the Patriots last year, it's on a Mario Manningham catch that Eli Manning had no business throwing based on the coverage, but he trusted Manningham to make a play for him, and he did. When the Cardinals come back on the Steelers it's Larry Fitzgerald being ridiculous. And when the Steelers somehow come back on the Cardinals at the very end, it's a beautiful Santonio Holmes fingertip-to-toetip play in the end zone.

    But it's also evil...because when you look at the straight percentages, it's flat out daunting. So many of the guys we're talking about and getting excited about will amount to NOTHING at the next level. It's just a fact of the draft. So because it's so inherently risky, teams try and take risk off the board any way they can. Being an incredible athlete from a size/speed standpoint takes risk off the board. A guy is usually going to be at least SOMETHING when he's an incredible athlete. But pure speed and agility also takes risk off the board because you know if you teach the guy right he's going to be able to separate.

    What I'm getting at is Markus Wheaton with his pure speed and agility, both of which he showed at Oregon State and then he showed against higher caliber competition at the Senior Bowl, makes him a relatively safe guy. Not all guys with his speed and agility have had the chances he's had to show that he's a safe prospect, but one way or another he's gotten those chances and he's taken them...so I think of him as a relatively safe bet. And if he's a relatively safe bet then teams trying to take risk off the board are going to steer toward him, IMO.
    I was initially drawn to Wheaton by his ability to separate. I can't find anything in your post that I take issue with. Things change when money is involved, but I get good vibes fro Wheaton when I hear him speak. He seems like a pretty grounded guy, who works hard and isn't afraid to acknowledge areas in his game that need improvement.
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    titus young looked more rediculously explosive to me at the senior bowl than wheaton but that kid had a ton of skeletons in his closet which hurt him...i don't think wheatons gonna have the same issues...still there's a ton of underclassmen wrs who i think will be viewed higher than wheaton in nfl circles...i'd feel pretty confident he gets to #42 personally...
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    What did Hopkins gain per catch on screens?
    This is going to seem like a joke, but 1.66 yards/ screen catch.

    For kicks and grins:

    Allen: 6.33 yards/ screen
    Bailey: 8 yards/ screen
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    This is going to seem like a joke, but 1.66 yards/ screen catch.

    For kicks and grins:

    Allen: 6.33 yards/ screen
    Bailey: 8 yards/ screen
    I don't think Hopkins is any C. Patterson, but I think that number might be a little misleading. For whatever reason, every single screen I saw thrown to Hopkins never had a chance. He has defenders at his ankles by the time - if not before - he secures the ball. Every time. I like Hopkins. I think he's one of the most QB-friendly WR prospects in the draft. He runs good routes, and he fights for the ball. Looking at him, his arms look longer than your average 6'1 guys arms. He plays more like a 6'3 guy with the ball in the air. I don't think his RAC is solid, but in this offense, I see him playing a J. Nelson role. Not as big or strong as Nelson, but he plays like he is, and he's a much better at creating separating. Above all, I think Hopkins is a natural WR. Plays with great balance, so he's always in position to make a play on the ball. I'll be curious to see what the combine does to his stock.

    I noticed with both Hopkins and Wheaton that each consistently gets behind the D, and each player's QB consistently under throws him. What I like, though, is that both fight back for the ball and often make contested catches. I think it's very easy for a young WR to get frustrated on plays like that. Easy to make a halfhearted attempt to break up an INT and say, "Man, I was open, but you were late on the throw." You don't get any of that with these guys. Both look to maximize each play. On Wheaton, you can see him ducking his head and fighting forward for a few extra yards.
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  7. -27
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    This is going to seem like a joke, but 1.66 yards/ screen catch.

    For kicks and grins:

    Allen: 6.33 yards/ screen
    Bailey: 8 yards/ screen
    I'm gonna consider that one a theory confirmed.

    ---------- Post added at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 PM ----------

    I'm generally skeptical of wide receivers that make their living "getting behind defenses" and catching deeper passes, when they don't actually have much speed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    I don't think Hopkins is any C. Patterson, but I think that number might be a little misleading. For whatever reason, every single screen I saw thrown to Hopkins never had a chance. He has defenders at his ankles by the time - if not before - he secures the ball. Every time. I like Hopkins. I think he's one of the most QB-friendly WR prospects in the draft. He runs good routes, and he fights for the ball. Looking at him, his arms look longer than your average 6'1 guys arms. He plays more like a 6'3 guy with the ball in the air. I don't think his RAC is solid, but in this offense, I see him playing a J. Nelson role. Not as big or strong as Nelson, but he plays like he is, and he's a much better at creating separating. Above all, I think Hopkins is a natural WR. Plays with great balance, so he's always in position to make a play on the ball. I'll be curious to see what the combine does to his stock.

    I noticed with both Hopkins and Wheaton that each consistently gets behind the D, and each player's QB consistently under throws him. What I like, though, is that both fight back for the ball and often make contested catches. I think it's very easy for a young WR to get frustrated on plays like that. Easy to make a halfhearted attempt to break up an INT and say, "Man, I was open, but you were late on the throw." You don't get any of that with these guys. Both look to maximize each play. On Wheaton, you can see him ducking his head and fighting forward for a few extra yards.
    Great post.
    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
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    [QUOTE=ckparrothead;1064577302]After the Senior Bowl he had, I'm really not sure you can count on that.

    Drafting a wide receiver is a necessary evil.

    /QUOTE]

    Doesn't this suggest that we might be better off going for a #1-type WR through trade/FA, or at least saving our high draft picks for surer positions? It seems like every year there are at least a couple star WR on the market. I have seen various studies on bust rates in the draft based on position, as well as studies of the impact of each position on team wins. What I haven't seen, and would love to see, is some integrated study between bust-rate ( or better yet, "%-star rate" ), average FA availability/cost, and impact to team wins for elite-level players per postiion. My hunch is that for QB, for instance, you pretty much have to draft one till you get one, because no position impacts the team more, and it's very rare you get a chance to land an elite one by other means. Offensive Guard, though, you probably can find them pretty regularly, and/or the average starting guard isn't that much worse than the best one from a team wins perspective. My guess is WR is somewhere in between.
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  10. -30
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    [QUOTE=isaacjunk;1064577500]
    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    After the Senior Bowl he had, I'm really not sure you can count on that.

    Drafting a wide receiver is a necessary evil.

    /QUOTE]

    Doesn't this suggest that we might be better off going for a #1-type WR through trade/FA, or at least saving our high draft picks for surer positions? It seems like every year there are at least a couple star WR on the market. I have seen various studies on bust rates in the draft based on position, as well as studies of the impact of each position on team wins. What I haven't seen, and would love to see, is some integrated study between bust-rate ( or better yet, "%-star rate" ), average FA availability/cost, and impact to team wins for elite-level players per postiion. My hunch is that for QB, for instance, you pretty much have to draft one till you get one, because no position impacts the team more, and it's very rare you get a chance to land an elite one by other means. Offensive Guard, though, you probably can find them pretty regularly, and/or the average starting guard isn't that much worse than the best one from a team wins perspective. My guess is WR is somewhere in between.
    I don't know about comprehensive study which incorporates dollar amounts and takes account of production...but here's a list I drew up of notable to semi-notable wide receivers that have had their contracts expire and then switched teams in free agency since 2008.

    I warn you, it's not pretty...


    Wastes of Time & Resources
    2008: Sam Aiken from Buffalo to New England
    2008: Bernard Berrian from Chicago to Minnesota
    2008: Marty Booker from Miami to Chicago
    2008: Bryant Johnson from Arizona to San Francisco
    2008: Eddie Kennison from Kansas City to St. Louis
    2008: Ashley Lelie from San Francisco to Oakland
    2008: Brandon Lloyd from Washington to Chicago
    2008: Justin McCareins from New York Jets to Tennessee
    2008: Jerry Porter from Oakland to Jacksonville
    2008: Koren Robinson from Green Bay to Seattle
    2008: Donte Stallworth from New England to Cleveland
    2008: Javon Walker from Denver to Oakland
    2009: Hank Baskett from Philadelphia to Indianapolis
    2009: Laveranues Coles from New York Jets to Cincinnati
    2009: Mike Furrey from Detroit to Cleveland
    2009: Joey Galloway from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh
    2009: Torry Holt from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati to Seattle
    2009: Bryant Johnson from San Francisco to Detroit
    2009: Terrell Owens from Dallas to Buffalo
    2009: Kelley Washington from New England to Baltimore
    2009: Roydell Williams from Tennessee to Washington
    2010: Arnaz Battle from San Francisco to Pittsburgh
    2010: Antonio Bryant from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
    2010: Nate Burleson from Seattle to Detroit
    2010: Mike Furrey from Cleveland to Washington
    2010: Joey Galloway from Pittsburgh to Washington
    2010: Jason Hill from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2010: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Seattle to Baltimore
    2010: Matt Jones from Jacksonville to Cincinnati
    2010: Randy Moss from Minnesota to Tennessee
    2010: Antwaan Randle El from Washington to Pittsburgh
    2010: Josh Reed from Buffalo to San Diego
    2010: Devin Thomas from Carolina to New York Giants
    2010: Jerheme Urban from Arizona to Kansas City
    2010: Bobby Wade from Kansas City to Washington
    2010: Demetrius Williams from Baltimore to Cleveland
    2011: Seyi Ajirotutu from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Devin Aromashodu from Chicago to Minnesota
    2011: Donnie Avery from St. Louis to Tennessee
    2011: Steve Breaston from Arizona to Kansas City
    2011: Plaxico Burress from New York Giants to New York Jets
    2011: Jericho Cotchery from New York Jets to Pittsburgh Steelers
    2011: Craig "Buster" Davis from San Diego to Buffalo
    2011: Braylon Edwards from New York Jets to San Francisco
    2011: James Hardy from Buffalo to Baltimore
    2011: Johnnie Lee Higgins from Oakland to Philadelphia
    2011: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Baltimore to Oakland
    2011: Michael Jenkins from Atlanta to Minnesota
    2011: Bryant Johnson from Detroit to Houston
    2011: Sinorice Moss from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Legedu Naanee from San Diego to Carolina
    2011: Taylor Price from New England to Jacksonville
    2011: Mike Sims-Walker from St. Louis to Jacksonville
    2011: Brad Smith from New York Jets to Buffalo
    2011: Steve E. Smith from New York Giants to Philadelphia
    2011: Brandon Tate from New England to Cincinnati
    2011: Roy Williams from Dallas to Chicago
    2012: Seyi Ajirotutu from Carolina to San Diego
    2012: Plaxico Burress from New York Jets to Pittsburgh
    2012: Andre Caldwell from Cincinnati to Denver
    2012: Braylon Edwards from San Francisco to Seattle
    2012: Braylon Edwards from Seattle to New York Jets
    2012: Clyde Gates from Miami to New York Jets
    2012: Robert Meachem from New Orleans to San Diego
    2012: Carlton Mitchell from Cleveland to Jacksonville
    2012: Josh Morgan from San Francisco to Jacksonville
    2012: Laurent Robinson from Dallas to Jacksonville
    2012: Brian Robiskie from Jacksonville to Detroit
    2012: Eddie Royal from Denver to San Diego
    2012: Greg Salas from New England to Philadelphia
    2012: Dane Sanzenbacher from Chicago to Cincinnati
    2012: Chaz Schilens from Oakland to New York Jets
    2012: Jordan Shipley from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
    2012: Jerome Simpson from Cincinnati to Minnesota
    2012: Steve E. Smith from Philadelphis to St. Louis
    2012: Mike Thomas from Jacksonville to Detroit

    Mixed Success Relative to Price
    2008: Isaac Bruce from St. Louis to San Francisco
    2008: Antonio Bryant from Dallas to Tampa Bay
    2008: Muhsin Muhammad from Chicago to Carolina
    2009: Jabar Gaffney from New England to Denver
    2009: Brandon Lloyd from Chicago to Denver
    2010: Terrell Owens from Buffalo to Cincinnati
    2011: Sidney Rice from Minnesota to Seattle
    2012: Danario Alexander from St. Louis to San Diego
    2012: Donnie Avery from Tennessee to Indianapolis
    2012: Pierre Garcon from Indianapolis to Washington
    2012: Trindon Holliday from Houston to Denver
    2012: Jacoby Jones from Houston to Baltimore
    2012: Brandon Lloyd from St. Louis to New England
    2012: Mario Manningham from New York Giants to San Francisco
    2012: Brandon Stokley from New York Giants to Denver Broncos

    Undeniably Successful Signings
    2009: Nate Washington from Pittsburgh to Tennessee
    2012: Vincent Jackson from San Diego to Tampa Bay
    Quote Quote  

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