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Thread: A Metrics Breakdown of Wheaton, Williams, Hunter, and Patton

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    A Metrics Breakdown of Wheaton, Williams, Hunter, and Patton

    To see the breakdown of Patterson, Bailey, Hopkins and Allen:

    Tier 1 | Tier 2

    I had a few people question why I chose the tier 1 of wide receivers like I did. To answer that question, when I initially did the film study, those were the first four I picked as the top. To be honest, after doing the analysis I donít think those are the top 4 anymore, but Iíll let you decide for yourselves based on the stats. This grouping consists of some intriguing prospects that could be as high as first rounders or go as low as the third round. Letís call this group the boom or bust group.
    Similar to the quarterbacks, I went through these playerís games and marked down a variety of factors. I noted where they caught the ball, how many yards they picked up after the catch and more. Statistics donít tell the whole story, but now when someone tells you that a certain wide receiver has bad hands, youíll know the truth. Letís get to it.

    Where Are They Catching the Ball?

    This represents what zones they caught the ball in, before yards after the catch. Unfortunately, I donít have the exact routes or what side of the field they caught it on. That will have to wait until the next iteration of this.



    • Terrance Williams is the ultimate deep threat of this class. Around 39% of his catches were past 10 yards and over 79% of his passes were past 5 yards. Of course this shows up on tape, but itís good to confirm it. We then have to wonder if he can translate that deep threat to the NFL or if heíll get jammed at the line of scrimmage.
    • Wheaton is another deep threat in this class. Heís of a completely different build than Williams, but 41% of his passes were past 10 yards. Interestingly, 55% of his passes were within 5 yards. Most of the time he was catching short or deep passes, nothing in the middle.
    • Quinton Patton is well distributed across all zones. He doesnít show a tendency to get past 20 yards, but thereís no zone in which he is simply not catching the ball. That tells us heís a pretty versatile wide receiver who wasnít pigeon holed in the offense.
    • Hunter seems to work the intermediate zones the most. We donít see a whole lot of completions in the screen or deep game, but the majority (78%) of his completions coming between 1 and 20 yards. Only8.3% of Pattersonís catches were screens, so the screen game wasnít a big part of the Tennessee offense, for whatever reason.


    Whatís Happening After the Catch?




    • Averaging around 19 yards per catch, Williams got most of his yardage before YAC. His yards after the catch are average at 5.2, but he caught the ball on average 14 yards past the line of scrimmage. Thatís extremely high, the highest of this class by 3 yards
    • Quinton Patton is excellent after the catch. At 6.15 yards after the catch, Pattonís YAC is second best in this class behind Stedman Bailey. He also averages 6.3 yards/ screen catch. The fact that these numbers are close indicate heís adept at getting similar amount of yardage on all types of catches.
    • Markus Wheatonís yards after catch is a paltry 3.48. This is a little scary, this is more than two yards below the average for all wide receivers in this class. Why is it so low? Did he fall down as soon as he caught the ball? Did his size limit him from garnering more yards? Itís possible the sub-par QB rotation at Oregon State limited him.
    • Justin Hunter is still running backwards trying to get more yards after the catch. Hunter owns the second worst yards after the catch in this class. However, he was catching the ball relatively deep at 9.2 yards. Your evaluation is going to depend on if you value a deeper catcher or someone with better YAC.

    ***In the chart section below, there is a chart detailing how much YAC each receiver gained on average on screen passes. I highly recommend you check that out to complement this chart.

    How Did Their Systems Help/Hurt Them?

    This one is going to require a little explaining. I was able to derive how often a QB targets his number one wide receiver and how often QBs miss their wide receiver. Thus I averaged out the percentage of targets, miss percentage, and average amount of throws per game, to give each WR the same amount of targets. Then I adjusted to see how their season numbers would have been, had they been in an average system.

    **Iím going to try out a new system to account for system, but to keep this post consistent with the previous post, Iíll keep the same system. Iíll do a separate post on that statistic.



    • Tyler Bray didnít do Justin Hunter many favors. While Hunter was targeted often enough, Bray missed him extremely often, taking away some yardage he may have gained.
    • Pattonís case is similar to Stedman Baileyís. I donít think itís a bad thing that they played in a pass happy offense, especially because his overall production was still very high at 1281 yards. Had it dropped down to a ďnon-eliteĒ level, then we would be more concerned.
    • Wheaton and Williamsí QBs were about average in terms of misses and targets. This doesnít mean their QBs were good, but rather compared to the QBs in this system, they were average. I donít think many people would call Sean Mannion a world beater. The new system will adjust for this better.



    To find the rest of the charts click here:http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/06/tier2-wrs/

    I'll throw in one bonus chart that I would have left on the website:


    *Thanks to CK for inspiring this chart, something I hadn't thought of that's really interesting.

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    Thanks, NUGap, appreciate your work you are putting into these.

    So of Allen, Bailey, Hopkins, Patterson, Williams, Wheaton, Patton, and Hunter, who are good fits for us and Sherman's offense?
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    These are fantastic.
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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    I'm more inclined to think that Markus Wheaton's low YAC figure is an anomaly when I see that his screen YPC was at a healthy 5.71 yards per catch.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    I'm more inclined to think that Markus Wheaton's low YAC figure is an anomaly when I see that his screen YAC was at a healthy 5.71 yards per catch.
    That was my thought as well. At first, a few days ago when I just had the raw stats without the screen figure - I was a little put off by Wheaton's low YAC number (and a little bit by his 10% drop rate). However, the screen number assuaged my concerns a little bit, but I still want to go back and see what was causing the lack of yards. I'm guessing ball placement.

    Like I've said before, I'm a really big Patton fan. Second highest YAC overall, Fourth highest yards after screen, 4th best drop percentage, variety in where he's catching the ball, and the most red zone yardage by far, plus just good showing on tape in general. I still have him hovering around third ranked receiver.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    Like I've said before, I'm a really big Patton fan. Second highest YAC overall, Fourth highest yards after screen, 4th best drop percentage, variety in where he's catching the ball, and the most red zone yardage by far, plus just good showing on tape in general. I still have him hovering around third ranked receiver.
    Hey NUGap. Something I've noticed that I can't get anyone else to confirm or deny they've seen with Patton. A lot of body-catching. The games I've seen, I've noticed him letting the ball fall to him. I didn't see a lot of him extending out and highpointing the ball. I think he likes it in the bread-basket. The sample size I've looked at isn't huge - maybe 3/4 games. Maybe some of it is on the QB too. But you want to see plenty of evidence of him using his full catch radius and I haven't seen much.

    Other than that, I think the kid has everything you're looking for in a physical receiver who can work the sideline and the endzone. But it's definitely a niggle for me.

    With all the games you've analysed, can you confirm, deny or comment??!!
    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
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    I think this video is a pretty good representation of both why Wheaton didn't get a lot of YAC (ball placement) and some of his ability. The double move at around 17 seconds is good stuff, breaks the defender's ankles. I couldn't find this game anywhere online to link to, so I had to throw up a random, sketchy cutup.

    http://youtu.be/xS2NF3S5eMg
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    I believe that's hoops' man Ifo that got dusted on that route. Quality clip. Thanks for posting.
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    Here is my issue with Williams, He seems to never be able to survive the first touch. Sometimes the slightest touch and he's on the ground. May sound petty but If there is one thing I hate seeing is WR's go right down after the slightest touch.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep3ASYyhUB4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chubby View Post
    Here is my issue with Williams, He seems to never be able to survive the first touch. Sometimes the slightest touch and he's on the ground. May sound petty but If there is one thing I hate seeing is WR's go right down after the slightest touch.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep3ASYyhUB4
    This. Williams needs to get a whole lot more physical to survive the NFL. Is it in his character? Time will tell.
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