Hey y'all, because I apparently like the draft more than the NFL season, I've done a QB breakdown even though the Dolphins don't need a QB. I figured it can be helpful to see who the Bills/ Jets could draft and to hear what people think of this year's QB class. Especially considering the news that Barkley won't throw at the combine, I'd like to see what people think.
Like last year when I did these, the stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, Iím going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.
- Both Geno Smith and Matt Barkley throw a high amount of screens at 30% and 22%. These are significantly higher than what the AvgQB throws at 17%.
- All 4 quarterbacks throw a significant amount of passes within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but Barkleyís combined 52% screens and 1-5 yard passes are by far the highest among all QBs. For a comparison Tannehill only threw 38% of his passes in that short range.
- The quarterbacks are pretty even among the 6-10 yard intermediate range, all hovering around the same 21% we see with the AvgQB.
- Mike Glennon by far is the most likely to go deep. Heís above average in both the 11-20 range and the 20+ range. The only one of the four quarterbacks to do so.
- Barkley, Smith and Wilson all hover in the combined 28% range past 20 yards, all are below average compared to last yearís QB class.
This one requires a bit of explanation. The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages arenít what youíd see in the box scores.
- Both Geno Smith and Mike Glennon are elite in terms of short 1-5 yard passes. Their accuracies at 83% and 82% are better than RGIIIís last year and would have put them behind only Russell Wilson in that zone.
- The biggest red flag for me when looking at Barkley is the low completion percentage in the 1-5 yard zone. He threw in that area 30% of the time, but wasnít at average. This however is where the numbers from last year come in handy, Tannehill threw a similar 69% in the 1-5 yard zone. So I feel like we can attribute that to the short style west-coast game.
- Geno Smith is excellent in the intermediate zones of 6-10 yards and 11-20 yards. Tyler Wilson is really not. This is what concerns me about Tyler Wilson, heís pushing average in the 1-5 yard zone but canít hit average at any other range. I donít think heíll be able to push the ball down field in the NFL. If you look at the "Results" chart at the bottom, he underthrows a significant number of his passes. That combined with his poor deeper accuracy would lead me to struggle with him.
- Barkley and Glennon are really the solid deep threats we see here. Both can hit the 11-20 range solidly and Barkley is excellent at 20+ yards. As a reference, Luck was at 50% on 20+ last year and RGIII was at 62.5%.
Adjusted Completion %
The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Geno Smith have performed in Mike Glennonís shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them.
What Iíve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last yearís QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system.
- The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out)
- Thus we see that Genoís system helped him the most, had he been forced to throw more deep routes and less screens his overall completion percentage would have gone down roughly 2.8%
- Barkley similarly was harmed due to the high amount of screens and 1-5 yard passes he throws, the ďgimmeĒ passes
- Glennon was actually helped by this. He threw many more deep passes than the others and would have benefited overall from throwing more screens and shorter passes.
- Tannehill was actually +5 in this last year, the highest of any QB in these two classes. This most likely would tell us that the system he played in asked for some of the most difficult throws in college.
Here's one further chart, I'll present without comment. It's the result of the plays (this is new). Some of it is a bit subjective, but I tried to apply the same filters to all QBs.
These are pretty much that stats I had last year. I've made a site though, mostly just to hold my data and writeups, that has more data on these QBs like red zone yardage, yardage by quarter, completion percentage by formation, completion percentage by down, etc. You can see the rest of that here: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/...ics-breakdown/
I've also done individual breakdowns on Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. In the future I'll be posting my WR data on there (and posting a Dolphins-centric version here) as well as other positions I'll be looking at. Probably DE and CB right after I finish QBs and WRs. I hope everyone can find this useful or at least semi-interesting. I'll definitely be posting ones that apply more to the Dolphins soon enough.