Those players have some nice traits. And then you'll see why they were third day picks. Try to win pivotal games with third day picks featured in the skill positions and I know what the likelihood is.

I'm sure we'll be bombarded with exceptions. Message boards are flooded with guys who scramble to find exceptions. Other than no value, it's a great hobby.

Ten point favorites sometimes lose by 20. But line them up and eventually it's a 4/1 success rate. Never varies much. Same holds true for every range. I realize I reference odds too much but it's what I know, and often it applies. Jeff Ireland seems to want to believe he's 10-20% better than the competition or the norm, that he can pay on the cheap and locate gems down the road. I suspect, and evidence shows, that he's very close to average. His fourth round picks will balance out to fourth round return, and so forth. Who really cares if he's touting Lamar Miller and Rishard Matthews to explode far beyond where they were taken? It's the same point I've made with the stadium. Tout a patchwork all you want but it's still a patchwork, with the fundamentals largely unchanged.

I can relate because I've been stupid and arrogant often enough. In the '90s and into the early '00s I had great success in ripping early quarterback picks. On a Las Vegas radio show on KDWN where I was frequent guest handicapper and draft analyst I hated on Tim Couch in particular, but also on Andre Ware and David Klingler and Akili Smith. The problem is, once you succeed using a certain approach you assume it will repeat. I wasn't paying nearly as much attention to players as I had previously, but thought I could quickly look at a quarterback and assert he'd fail to live up to expectations. And I've been wrong time and again. I remember I didn't particularly like Joe Flacco. I didn't really know anything about Joe Flacco, other than he transferred in college and didn't fit my preferred resume. The wisdom of the crowd has tremendous value. That's what I'm saying. There must have been a reason Player X went mid first round and Player Y lasted until the fourth. You may beat the field by a few percent but not consistently, and not dramatically higher than that.

We need to hit on the premium picks. Skill position, preferably. Tannehill, maybe. At least there's danger from him, even if he's not close to Flacco in terms of varying pace and loft to fit the evolving needs of the play. Jonathan Martin has lower athletic ability than an early second rounder should feature. We can't continue to make that type of mistake.