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Thread: Trade Targets at WR

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    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Trade Targets at WR

    I'm starting this thread as an open forum for people to suggest potential trade targets for the Miami Dolphins at the wide receiver position.

    I've always maintained that with 6 picks in the top 115 of the draft, with a heavy need in certain areas, and especially with Jeff Ireland's history of trades...that a trade is very likely this off season. And not a minor Tim Dobbins add-in, but a relatively a sizable trade.

    The immediate position that everyone will think of for a trade will be wide receiver. And not without cause.

    Back in 2010 while we all sat here and obsessed over the Dez Bryant question, this front office was hatching a trade for Brandon Marshall. They zigged, we expected a zag. By draft day, Dez Bryant wasn't even an issue anymore. Meanwhile, Jeff Ireland has never spent more than a 3rd round pick on a draft wide receiver, going back to his days in Dallas as well as his days in Miami.

    The picture this paints is of a General Manager that doesn't trust rookie receivers when he's got a hefty need. Hence the speculation about Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace.

    But while everyone thinks Mike Wallace is their top target, I find that unlikely. It's not in Jeff Ireland's nature to overpay for a player, nor is it in Joe Philbin's nature to have a $12 million dollar a year wide receiver on his depth chart demanding 150+ targets a season otherwise you're not getting even close to your money's worth.

    So anyway back to the original point, IF you were to assume the Dolphins to be targeting a wide receiver that they would have to TRADE for...who would it be?

    Please, in the interests of INTELLIGENT discussion, try and actually give some manner of rationale as to

    A) Why you think that player is available, and
    B) Why the Dolphins would be interested.

    I'll start.

    Most Likely: Miles Austin, Dallas

    Why is he available? The Cowboys have a BAD taste in their mouth from their decision to give Miles Austin a 7 year, $54 million contract in 2010. Part of the reason is because their misguided decision to pay nearly all of his "signing bonus" in the form of a 1st year salary during the uncapped year resulted in the Cowboys being penalized severely by Roger Goodell. But also, they've now paid Austin something along the lines of $27 million for three injury-plagued years. The production hasn't been terrible, 2567 yards and 20 TDs in 3 years. But all the minor and major injuries have been an annoyance. He's got $30.5 million remaining over the next 4 years, although I don't think his 2016 salary was ever meant to be paid. With the emergence of Dez Bryant, Dwayne Harris and Kevin Ogletreee, as well as the really BAD shape the Cowboys are in from a salary cap perspective...they may look to unload him. This is a unique situation in that the Cowboys would not have to actually eat a lot of signing bonus were they to unload Austin. As I said they paid him $17.1 million of his "guaranteed" money in the form of a 1st year salary. That doesn't get spread out over the life of the contract. They tried to eat that number during the uncapped year so that the rest of Austin's contract would be discounted. The NFL punished them for that. Their punishment stands regardless of whether Austin is still on roster or not. According to Spotrac, there's $4.7 million of "guaranteed" money that has yet to be expensed, but I'm not sure I trust that number. There may not be any. So trading Austin away would result in a net savings on the 2013 salary cap, and bigger savings in 2014 & 2015.

    Why would the Dolphins be interested? Jeff Ireland helped find Miles Austin as an undrafted free agent. He also made a trade offer for Austin back in I believe 2009. The trade fell through and then Austin broke out with like 1300 yards and 10+ TDs. Though there is $30.5 million remaining on Austin's contract, $11.4 million of it is in the 4th and final year. That salary was never meant to be paid. If the Dolphins trade for Austin, they could cut him at any time with no salary cap penalties. His salaries over the next 3 years total up to $19.1 million, about $6.4 million per year. This is the money Brian Hartline hopes to be paid, but Miles Austin's contract would involve no guaranteed money (therefore less risky than Hartline's contract) and Miles Austin has flat OUTPRODUCED Hartline in every way over the last three years, even injured. Austin has caught for nearly 2600 yards and 20 TDs. Hartline has 2250 yards and 3 TDs. Also, this system appreciates versatility in its wide receivers. Miles Austin has that. He's been a 70% slot player the last two seasons in Dallas, so you know he can work the slot. But do you want him to? Not that much. You could make a big argument that he's been played in the slot too often in Dallas. He only averaged 1.18 yards per pass snap in the slot in 2012, versus 2.73 yards per pass snap on the perimeter. He's a big, fast, athletic receiver. He needs to be working the perimeter more often. Miami has Davone Bess to work the slot. So while it's nice that Austin can work the slot, having him work LESS in the slot should actually make him more productive. The big sticking point with Austin is obviously the injuries. But, Jeff Ireland has shown in the past he's willing to take a chance on injury cases, like Justin Smiley, Jake Grove and Chad Pennington. With Dallas looking like they want to unload Austin, there's a possibility he would come cheap, and Miami has 6 picks in the top 115 of this Draft.

    Runners Up: Nate Washington (TEN) & Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
    Twitter: @ckparrot
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    kitt23's Avatar
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    i wouldn't waste a draft pick on these guys
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    DzakkH13's Avatar
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    Dolphin1972 Dolphins LogoJurassic WorldCam Wake 91
    I am much more comfortable with Ireland going the FA and trade route to finding Tannehill weapons.

    It is obvious drafting a stud WR early in the draft is Ireland's weakness.


    - Hall of Fame Safety Rod Woodson on Dan Marino playing in today's NFL:
    "...the best quarterback I believe is Dan Marino..."
    "If he played with these rules, he'd throw for 100,000 yards."


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    pillBOXhat's Avatar
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    I've been a big proponent of Wallace, but you've reminded me of how much GMs (especailly Ireland) will not tip their hands. They will however "leak" info about potential moves but this info usually helps leverage other moves that the team actually wants to make. At the moment every Dolphins fan wants a star WR on the team, and Wallace seems like the only choice. He may not be targeted as much as a Vincent Jackson but the threat of his speed is always there. On every play. I think that's worth something. Still, you've made me doubt Wallace is the Phins #1 target.
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    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pillBOXhat View Post
    I've been a big proponent of Wallace, but you've reminded me of how much GMs (especailly Ireland) will not tip their hands. They will however "leak" info about potential moves but this info usually helps leverage other moves that the team actually wants to make. At the moment every Dolphins fan wants a star WR on the team, and Wallace seems like the only choice. He may not be targeted as much as a Vincent Jackson but the threat of his speed is always there. On every play. I think that's worth something. Still, you've made me doubt Wallace is the Phins #1 target.
    I think that Jeff Ireland doesn't have a strong history of paying up for the guy that is considered the hot dot on the market. That's my opinion.

    And at the same time, when Joe Philbin got here the first thing they did was trade Brandon Marshall. Whether Philbin had anything to do with that, we don't know. What we do know is that the big explanation that came out of them about it was that Brandon Marshall was a guy that demanded to be fed the ball and this offense doesn't operate like that. It's supposed to be much more egalitarian.

    Well let's think about where the rubber meets the road on that. Over the period 2007 to 2012 in Green Bay, plus 2012 in Miami, the #1 most popular receiver was targeted an average of 120 times. Sometimes a little above that, sometimes a little below it.

    Now let's actually think about what that would mean for a Mike Wallace in terms of yardage and production. There have been 148 wide receivers that have been targeted at least 100+ times in a season, since 2008. Only the top 13.5% have averaged 10.0 yards per attempt or better during the season in which they had 100+ targets. If Mike Wallace got to that 10.0 mark then he'd be having 1200 yard seasons and I'm sure people would accept that. But could he do that consistently? It's not like it's the same WRs getting 10+ over and over again. Of the 20 times over the last 5 years that it's happened, it was 14 different players, and 9 of them did it only 1 time (including Mike Wallace himself).

    This year Wallace averaged only 7.2 yards per attempt. That's a little below average for the group. The group average was 8.5 yards per attempt. At 8.5 yards per attempt on 120 targets, Mike Wallace would only be averaging barely 1,000 yards receiving a year. You're paying $12 million per year for that 1,000 yards per season average.

    It all sounds nice right NOW when you're desperate, but fast forward to two years down the road and you've paid a guy like $35 million (including guarantees) and he's produced a stat line that looks like Brandon Marshall's during his two-year stint in Miami (2200 yards, 9 TDs) and there's going to be a lot of pressure on you to make that guy more productive...more "worth it".

    ---------- Post added at 02:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by MadDog 88 View Post
    Enduro seems to think Larry Fitzgerald is the target.

    Seriously, I like Miles Austin and had hoped the Fins got him in 2010 but that didn't come to fruition. But of the Dallas WRs that we would have to give up a pick for, I like Kevin Ogletree. He reminds me a lot of Miles Austin in his first couple of years.

    Off the top of my head, I really don't see any other teams that are in the position Dallas is in to move a WR I would be interested in.
    I have truly been unimpressed with Ogletree even this year when his production skyrocketed. I thought he benefited a lot from the players around him. I could be wrong. I just was not at all impressed.
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    TheWalrus's Avatar
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    I can't think of a better high profile name for this kind of thing than Miles Austin. Jacoby Ford strikes me as a potential lower level trade target if we don't -- as I hope we don't -- sign Mike Wallace. Ford's value to the team is not as high as it would be if Thigpen wasn't here, but returners get used up fast and Thigpen could anyway not have as good a year as last and we don't have anything behind him.

    Ford would bring what Gates was supposed to bring and has some of the same traits in a smaller, more injury prone body as Wallace. The Raiders have a new front office staff that didn't bring Ford in and Rod Streater emerged last year as a favorite target of Carson Palmer and DHB and Denarius Moore have shown signs of becoming good players there, also. Ford is sort of the odd man out after not playing at all last year.



    #freespesh
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    houtz's Avatar
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    I'd take Austin in a heartbeat, same with Maclin. Although I'm not sure Philly would be as willing to part with Maclin as the Cowboys would be Austin. Have to believe Ireland has had talks about Austin.
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    MadDog 88's Avatar
    TANNERECTION!!!

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    Enduro seems to think Larry Fitzgerald is the target.

    Seriously, I like Miles Austin and had hoped the Fins got him in 2010 but that didn't come to fruition. But of the Dallas WRs that we would have to give up a pick for, I like Kevin Ogletree. He reminds me a lot of Miles Austin in his first couple of years.

    Off the top of my head, I really don't see any other teams that are in the position Dallas is in to move a WR I would be interested in.
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    miamiron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadDog 88 View Post
    Enduro seems to think Larry Fitzgerald is the target.

    .
    Is he still working at the psychic hotline?
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    hooshoops's Avatar
    Ryan tannehill...like a boss

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    austin makes sense...anything more than a 5th round pick for nate washington is a no go...and he's not getting you over the hump either way...doubt philly would trade maclin with desean jackson only wanting to play sometimes

    jacony ford spends as much time in the training room as he does on the field...
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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