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Thread: Davone Bess is a Playmaker

  1. -1
    Shouright's Avatar
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    Davone Bess is a Playmaker

    According to this website, Davone Bess was 18th in the league in 2012 in Win Probability Added (11th in the league in Win Probability Added per game), which is defined as follows:

    Win Probability Added starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP.

    On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.

    If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.

    WPA is very sensitive to the context of the game. That same interception that cost -0.08 when a team was down by 7 points in the 2nd quarter would cost much more if it the offense was leading by a point late in the 4th quarter. Putting your opponent in immediate field goal range would be nearly fatal.

    Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

    WPA has a number of applications. For starters, we can tell which plays were truly critical in each game. From a fan’s perspective, we can call a play the ‘play of the week’ or the ‘play of the year.’ And although we still can't separate an individual player's performance from that of his teammates', we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.
    Not all "plays" are touchdowns, and not all "plays" involve tremendous YAC. Sometimes a play is a clutch third-down catch that sustains a key drive in a game and keeps your team in the running for a win that day. Many times a "play" is related more to the mentality a guy plays with (i.e., stepping up in the clutch, wanting the ball, and giving 110% effort to get it) and the little things he does (i.e., route-running, ball skills, etc.) than to his combine measurables and his explosive ability as measured by his 40 time and vertical jump.

    Davone Bess is a playmaker, folks. You've seen it yourself time and time again, and I think many of you are taking it for granted.



    You don't trade players like these for fourth-round picks.
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    J. David Wannyheimer's Avatar
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    I'm here to tell the truth about top secret Air Force project BAR STOOL. Gamma ray radiation from the particle accelerator under Joe Robbie Stadium is real! Get out while you can! This bad football team is just a front for something far more sinister!
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    uk_dolfan's Avatar
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    Re: Davone Bess is a Playmaker

    No he isnt. I love Bess but he isnt a playmaker.
    Im selling a club level ticket to the Dolphins v Raiders in London - will sell it for below face value. PM me if your interested.
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    Surferosa's Avatar
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    Agree Shouright. Im excited about the prospect of Austin like many others (which may cloud my perception of Bess) but that does not take away from the fact the Davone is a very effective weapon in our passing game. Thanks for sharing.
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    SebasMiamiFan's Avatar
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    He's not a play maker. He's a solid WR who moves the chains.






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    WVDolphan's Avatar
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    He's a bum.
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    greasyObnoxious's Avatar
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    i like Bess, too, but he's a dime a dozen.
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    Scout Team

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    I won't ever understand why this dude gets so unappreciated around here. Sometimes I come on here just to feel better about my life, you guys are all so scorned and negative. Bess moves the chains well and doesn't drop anything. When you have depth, sure-handed route-runners are great.
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    finfan54's Avatar
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    Bess gets injured at the most critical time of the year. Now were we playoff team? no, but thats not where Philbin plans to be this year. He wants guys who can make it through a season. Which if the trade rumour is indeed about Bess, its time to move on. The time is right if you can get something for him.
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    fininpsl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WVDolphan View Post
    He's a bum.
    That's probably a little harsh WV, but if you can get a fifth round pick for him, with as deep as this draft is at WR, you take it and run. And you shed a little salary in the process. IMHO depending how the draft goes, he could be a cap casualty in the fall anyway.
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