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Thread: Davone Bess is a Playmaker

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Davone Bess is a Playmaker

    According to this website, Davone Bess was 18th in the league in 2012 in Win Probability Added (11th in the league in Win Probability Added per game), which is defined as follows:

    Win Probability Added starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP.

    On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.

    If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.

    WPA is very sensitive to the context of the game. That same interception that cost -0.08 when a team was down by 7 points in the 2nd quarter would cost much more if it the offense was leading by a point late in the 4th quarter. Putting your opponent in immediate field goal range would be nearly fatal.

    Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

    WPA has a number of applications. For starters, we can tell which plays were truly critical in each game. From a fan’s perspective, we can call a play the ‘play of the week’ or the ‘play of the year.’ And although we still can't separate an individual player's performance from that of his teammates', we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.
    Not all "plays" are touchdowns, and not all "plays" involve tremendous YAC. Sometimes a play is a clutch third-down catch that sustains a key drive in a game and keeps your team in the running for a win that day. Many times a "play" is related more to the mentality a guy plays with (i.e., stepping up in the clutch, wanting the ball, and giving 110% effort to get it) and the little things he does (i.e., route-running, ball skills, etc.) than to his combine measurables and his explosive ability as measured by his 40 time and vertical jump.

    Davone Bess is a playmaker, folks. You've seen it yourself time and time again, and I think many of you are taking it for granted.



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    J. David Wannyheimer's Avatar
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    Premise of thread is in error.


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    Quote Originally Posted by registeredguy View Post
    Premise of thread is in error.
    Yep
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    Re: Davone Bess is a Playmaker

    No he isnt. I love Bess but he isnt a playmaker.
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    Surferosa's Avatar
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    Agree Shouright. Im excited about the prospect of Austin like many others (which may cloud my perception of Bess) but that does not take away from the fact the Davone is a very effective weapon in our passing game. Thanks for sharing.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surferosa View Post
    Agree Shouright. Im excited about the prospect of Austin like many others (which may cloud my perception of Bess) but that does not take away from the fact the Davone is a very effective weapon in our passing game. Thanks for sharing.
    What I bolded is what I think is happening here by and large, but I can give you a rundown of players with Austin's measurables who've done nothing significant in the league, whereas Bess has done plenty and is a game-winner. The odds are against Austin's ever attaining the level of success Bess has in the league.
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    He's not a play maker. He's a solid WR who moves the chains.






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    Quote Originally Posted by SebasMiamiFan View Post
    He's not a play maker. He's a solid WR who moves the chains.
    Uhh that is kinda the definition of play maker.

    I agree with the OP, Bess is one of my favorite players who knows how to make the most of his ability. Bess is NOT a #2, and did not have a good year this year because he was asked to do what he can not be. But now that we have Wallace, and Hartline and Bess can go back to being what he does best, he is a very good slot WR. Slot WRs are about moving the chains, and Bess is a big game WR. All those highlights all seemed to be in the biggest games of the year. That is when he shows up. He is not going to break a lot of 80 yard TDs, he is not going to out run anyone, but he NEVER drops catchable balls and he is ALWAYS open in the slot.

    You can't have superstars at every position. But Bess is the perfect role player and safety blanket for a team with several different weapons. He has the perfect attitude and is the perfect teacher for young WRs. He gets more out of what talent he does have than any other player on the team. He knows what he can do and what he can't, and that confidence comes through in the clutch when it matters most. Bess is the perfect 3rd or 4th WR. His salary is not too much and getting rid of him would be a huge mistake.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KTOWNFINFAN View Post
    Uhh that is kinda the definition of play maker.

    I agree with the OP, Bess is one of my favorite players who knows how to make the most of his ability. Bess is NOT a #2, and did not have a good year this year because he was asked to do what he can not be. But now that we have Wallace, and Hartline and Bess can go back to being what he does best, he is a very good slot WR. Slot WRs are about moving the chains, and Bess is a big game WR. All those highlights all seemed to be in the biggest games of the year. That is when he shows up. He is not going to break a lot of 80 yard TDs, he is not going to out run anyone, but he NEVER drops catchable balls and he is ALWAYS open in the slot.

    You can't have superstars at every position. But Bess is the perfect role player and safety blanket for a team with several different weapons. He has the perfect attitude and is the perfect teacher for young WRs. He gets more out of what talent he does have than any other player on the team. He knows what he can do and what he can't, and that confidence comes through in the clutch when it matters most. Bess is the perfect 3rd or 4th WR. His salary is not too much and getting rid of him would be a huge mistake.
    You say he is a play maker, then you tell me this.
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