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Thread: Question Guys ?

  1. -11
    MoFinz's Avatar
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    I'm surprised Conner Vernon isn't a sleeper pick. All he did was catch everything but a cold at Duke.....is he too good or not good enough? I like his toughness


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  2. -12
    TedSlimmJr's Avatar
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    Yeah there's a distinction to be made between true sleepers, and kids that are simply underrated. Basically, if you were invited to the combine it's difficult for me to consider you a sleeper at that point. Have to dig a little deeper down into the pool of prospects to find what I would consider true sleepers.

    The perception certainly changes as the draft process makes it way from the end of bowl season through the Senior Bowl, on to the combine... and concludes with pro days.

    A lot of the players who make up my underrated Seniors/Underclassman threads prior to the season are used as benchmarks for comparison by the time the draft rolls around.
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  3. -13
    TedSlimmJr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoFinz View Post
    I'm surprised Conner Vernon isn't a sleeper pick. All he did was catch everything but a cold at Duke.....is he too good or not good enough? I like his toughness

    I think there was a time when Vernon could be considered a sleeper. Although as I mentioned, it's hard for me to consider a kid a sleeper if he's invited to the combine.... much less one who holds ACC career receiving records.

    Vernon is most likely viewed pretty accurately among the general draft community and the NFL. Mid-late round prospect that profiles as a solid #3 option, lower tier #2 option.
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  4. -14
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    I hadn't really thought about the distinction between "sleeper" and "underrated". It's all about what the original poster wants to know, in this case. He said "sleeper" but he named guys like Johnathan Franklin, Quinton Patton, Margus Hunt, Datone Jones and Kyle Long. I'll be surprised if any of those guys lasts beyond the 2nd round. Some of them will go 1st round.

    Personally I just assumed that any Day 3 guy would fit the category. Some of the guys I mentioned have a shot at going earlier than Day 3, in particular Hugh Thornton, Mark Harrison, Marquise Goodwin and Sanders Commings...but I'm not entirely certain they will.
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  5. -15
    Fin Thirteen's Avatar
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    A guy I've been looking at recently and I just can't understand why he wasn't at the Combine or the Shrine Game or why he's pegged as a 7th rounder at best - most have him a UDFA.

    Rutgers safety Duron Harmon. 6'1" and 200 lbs. To my eyes, he grades out at about a 4th rounder. He has plus instincts, good feet (played corner for his freshman season I think), good track record for big plays, pretty sound technique if not a big hitter. All Big East two seasons ago and 2nd team last season. He ran a 4.45 at his pro day, 15 reps bench, 36" vert, 10'5" broad, 4.16 short shuttle and 6.86 3-cone.

    Had an INT and 7 passes broken up last season, 5 INTs and 1 pass broken up in 2011. Good for 45-50 tackles a year.

    There's really a lot to like about this kid. He's a leader, a baller, a decent athlete and at worst a very nice depth guy at FS who could prob play SS if you needed. I've looked at about three or four Rutgers games from last season and he's figured pretty well in them all. I get that it's a good safety class this year, but I can't believe you could pick this kid up as a UFDA. Serious steal, imo. Ray Ray Armstrong, Cooper Taylor and Cody Davis would be three other late safeties I would look at, but Harmon definitely belongs in the conversation..

    http://http://draftbreakdown.com/dur...-arkansas-2012
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  6. -16
    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    I would go back and look at the immediate projection for the 2013 draft, not long after the 2012 draft ended. Invariably some guys pick the first round for the following year.

    Now, that list inevitably will look stupid a year later. In fact, I remember Ray Ray Armstrong of the Canes making one of them. He is slow and slower, not to mention questionable judgment, on and off the field. That wasn't an astute pick.

    However, a list like that is guaranteed to include many players who were improperly downgraded, for whatever reason, and offer good value in this draft. The defensive tackle from Texas -- Randall -- who we picked very late last year was on those first round forecasts immediately after the 2011 draft.

    It's a good refresher exercise. I always get a kick out of fans who immediately denounce the list, as if they are proving something. It's identical to mocking the handful of cases in which college preseason team ratings are way off, like USC and Arkansas last year, instead of marveling at how frequently they are correct, and finding ways to use it.
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  7. -17
    NUGap's Avatar
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    There's two Northwestern lineman that could be 7th rounders to UDFA, I'll talk about them briefly since we're talking about "real" sleepers.

    The first is Patrick Ward. Ward is an OT, around 6'7", 310 lbs. He started at RT for three years when Al Netter (who was on the PS for the 49ers this year) was playing LT. He was kicked to LT this year. The PFW magazine has him listed as a 7th - UDFA pick. Personally, I'm not a huge fan. He's amazingly rigid and upright, like someone tied a board to his back. I think his footwork is also a bit sloppy and slow. Extremely smart guy, Mechanical Engineer with ~3.9 GPA.

    The second is Brian Arnfelt, a DT for the 'cats this year. He runs 6'5", 300 lbs. Which means you could potentially use him at either 5 or 3 tech. At NU's proday he benched 225 at 38 reps, which means he would have tied Margus Hunt for most bench press reps at the combine this year. He ran a 4.81 in the 40. He was a really solid contributor on the DL this year, he had 3 sacks this year but was really solid in the run game. Also a team captain.

    I don't have any notes on Arnfelt because I just spent about 30 minutes watching NU OG Brian Mulroe to find out he's not pursuing football due to a career offer, so no time to watch Arnfelt. However, with those really solid numbers for this size, wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a flyer on him.
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  8. -18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    I would go back and look at the immediate projection for the 2013 draft, not long after the 2012 draft ended. Invariably some guys pick the first round for the following year.

    Now, that list inevitably will look stupid a year later. In fact, I remember Ray Ray Armstrong of the Canes making one of them. He is slow and slower, not to mention questionable judgment, on and off the field. That wasn't an astute pick.

    However, a list like that is guaranteed to include many players who were improperly downgraded, for whatever reason, and offer good value in this draft. The defensive tackle from Texas -- Randall -- who we picked very late last year was on those first round forecasts immediately after the 2011 draft.

    It's a good refresher exercise. I always get a kick out of fans who immediately denounce the list, as if they are proving something. It's identical to mocking the handful of cases in which college preseason team ratings are way off, like USC and Arkansas last year, instead of marveling at how frequently they are correct, and finding ways to use it.
    I don't know if I agree on this one. I think it might be a good exercise with a guy like Okafor who used to be considered a good 1st rounder and now is more like a 2nd rounder, and all that happened in between was him leading the draft's pass rushers in pressures per snap.

    But in my opinion the tendency you're talking about would be characteristic of an overly-mature information environment, an environment where most of what you really need to know is already freely available, and the only thing time does is cause people to over-think. I could see how that would be the case at the NFL level with respect to free agents who have played in the NFL against other NFL players for at least 4 years already. But it's not the case when it comes to college versus pro. This far out, you don't have near enough information yet to be confident that guys are being rated correctly...because these players are all still in a heavy developmental phase. Inevitably the juniors flood the top end of every draft every year, and at this stage those guys are only 2 years out of high school. Many have started for a year or less, to this point.

    I don't consider myself to be terrible at what I do. But I was asked by Bleacher Report to do a 2013 Mock Draft absurdly within a week of the 2012 NFL Draft. I hadn't done ANY work on the 2013 class. What that meant is that I had to go by common rankings, stuff you find on NFL Draft Scout, which are usually oriented toward the BLESTO preseason rankings and the like.

    I'll give the guys I put in the 1st round based on a combination of those rankings, and the very few players I legitimate did have research and opinions about. I'll put stars next to the guys I'd researched pretty extensively and so putting them where I did was in large part based on my own feelings:

    QB Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech*
    CB David Amerson, North Carolina State
    QB Matt Barkley, USC*
    WR Robert Woods, USC
    LB Shayne Skov, Stanford*
    QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
    DT Star Lotulelei, Utah*
    OT Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin
    WR Keenan Allen, California
    CB Carrington Byndom, Texas*
    LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame*
    FS Kenny Vaccaro, Texas*
    WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
    RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina*
    DE William Gholston, Michigan State
    DT Kawann Short, Purdue
    OT Oday Aboushi, Virginia
    CB Dee Milliner, Alabama*
    OC Barrett Jones, Alabama
    LB Tom Wort, Oklahoma
    DE Jarvis Jones, Georgia
    DT Kwame Geathers, Georgia
    RB Christine Michael, Texas A&M
    CB Tyrann Mathieu, LSU
    CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
    DE Alex Okafor, Texas*
    DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU
    OT Justin Pugh, Syracuse
    DE Bjoern Werner, FSU*
    TE Joseph Fauria, UCLA*
    RB Ray Graham, Pittsbugh*

    Again the guys with an (*) were guys I'd done enough on to endorse the grade (even Fauria and Graham, unfortunately)...but every other pick, this was all based on NFL Draft Scout's lists for the most part. There's some messed up stuff on there, lol.

    I try and be aware of the situations you describe...over thinking...too much emphasis on new information and not properly contextualizing it. IMO, that may be happening with Matt Barkley, Manti Te'o...but the others? Not so sure.
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  9. -19
    NUGap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    I'll give the guys I put in the 1st round based on a combination of those rankings, and the very few players I legitimate did have research and opinions about. I'll put stars next to the guys I'd researched pretty extensively and so putting them where I did was in large part based on my own feelings:
    That's actually a pretty good list, honestly I would have expected a much higher attrition rate. Most of those guys are looking at somewhere between rounds 1-3. I personally would have thought nearly 50% of those would be graded 5th round or lower this year, simply based on poor senior showings, injuries, etc. Shows what I know.
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  10. -20
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    Theo Riddick. Multi dimensional, tough runner, good vision, great hands and a smart football player.
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