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Thread: Ireland considering Keenan Allen at 12?

  1. -51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mudder1310 View Post
    Let's also consider Pattersons production was done with an NFL draftable QB and top tier WR on the other side of the field. Allen was pretty much on his own.
    Two things.

    1. Shouldn't the fact that Patterson had another good receiver opposite him work in his favor? Had he been alone in an offense I imagine his statistics would have been run up more. Also coverage by number 1 CBs (Milliner, Banks, etc) on Patterson and Hunter was split. I have the charting to prove it.

    2. LOL Tyler Bray. He's draftable as long as your receivers are in the second row of the stands 50% of the time.
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    And Patterson played in the SEC, where WR's aren't given a lot. Put Patterson up against the soft coverages of the Pac 12/10/whatever, and he'd get a lot more touches and do a lot more damage.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    Two things.

    1. Shouldn't the fact that Patterson had another good receiver opposite him work in his favor? Had he been alone in an offense I imagine his statistics would have been run up more. Also coverage by number 1 CBs (Milliner, Banks, etc) on Patterson and Hunter was split. I have the charting to prove it.

    2. LOL Tyler Bray. He's draftable as long as your receivers are in the second row of the stands 50% of the time.
    Having Hunter on the other side means a safety can't cheat over to Pattersons side and help. He gets more single coverage or zone. And whether or not you like Bray the fact is he is projected to be drafted in the later rounds, something you can't say for anyone who threw to Allen in his entire career. Let's also consider how Tenn had to throw more than they wanted since they were always getting drilled and Patterson's stats are inflated compared to Allen, regardless what conference he's in. Allen was still covered by guys like Trufant and Poyer, pro caliber CB, again with no one to draw other attention or help.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    Two things.

    1. Shouldn't the fact that Patterson had another good receiver opposite him work in his favor? Had he been alone in an offense I imagine his statistics would have been run up more. Also coverage by number 1 CBs (Milliner, Banks, etc) on Patterson and Hunter was split. I have the charting to prove it.
    There's alot of variables in football. First of all it is true what you state. Being a guy with no one to help can inflate numbers if the situation is right (see Hartline last year with all his targets, but he is no better than a #3/4 WR on a good team, and can't make plays, falls down like a pile of crap after a catch with no one around him all too often, and can't do what is most important- score touchdowns on his own merit).

    On the other hand, however, Stedman Bailey doesn't have close to the TD's he had if it wasn't for his offense, but more importantly, if he didn't have Austin on his team. Tavon Austin is the one that defenses were terrified of, not Bailey. Bailey was more of a recipient of Austin than vice versa. In other words, Bailey does not do what he did if he was the "only guy" on a team.

    A guy like Keenan Allen can produce whether he is THE guy, or a complimentary guy, just as well... Just like Reggie Wayne, it didn't matter if Marvin Harrison was on his WR corps or a raw rookie, the dude was feared and damn good. That's what very good players do. Keenan Allen is like that. The Hartline's, Bess's, and Gibson's (and I will say right now- the Stedman Bailey's) are not close to that level
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mudder1310 View Post
    Having Hunter on the other side means a safety can't cheat over to Pattersons side and help. He gets more single coverage or zone. And whether or not you like Bray the fact is he is projected to be drafted in the later rounds, something you can't say for anyone who threw to Allen in his entire career. Let's also consider how Tenn had to throw more than they wanted since they were always getting drilled and Patterson's stats are inflated compared to Allen, regardless what conference he's in. Allen was still covered by guys like Trufant and Poyer, pro caliber CB, again with no one to draw other attention or help.
    Looking past my snark, I have the stats on their QBs. Regardless of whether or not Bray will be drafted, we can compare the QBs:

    Patterson: targeted on 20% of all throws, ~7.5 targets per game, Bray missed on 27% of all targets,
    Allen: targeted on 32% of all throws, ~9.44 targets per game, Maynard missed on 24% of all targets,

    If anything, Patterson's numbers are underrated due to the low number of targets. Bray also missed him more often than Maynard did Allen. To be fair, Maynard was under more pressure than Bray was on average, but you can't ignore the fact that Allen was targeted significantly more often than Patterson and both QBs missed their WRs at a similar rate. The average number one wide receiver in my study this year was targeted on 31% of all throws. You can't tell me that Patterson was targeted as a number one wide receiver with those numbers. If you put him into an offense where he's the number one wide receiver, even with safety help over the top, I guarantee that 11% more targets would increase his production.

    The folly in using whether a QB is "draftable" or not is ignoring factors like potential. People see a draft grade on Bray and think that he's worth drafting. Nearly all of that is based on his "potential" and "arm talent" as draft analysts like to tout. Look at the tape, look at the numbers that I presented and you can see that both of their quarterback play was poor. If we're going to give leeway to Allen because of poor QB play, shouldn't we be giving leeway to Markus Wheaton as well? Sean Mannion isn't exactly Peyton Manning back there. That's a slippery slope, especially when you're saying that overall production was impacted by one factor. You need more than just yards and receptions to break down production.

    If you're then going to use whether he had another receiver opposite him, we'd have to discount DeAndre Hopkins production (Sammy Watkins), Tavon Austin/ Stedman Bailey, Terrance Williams (Tevin Reese), Markus Wheaton (Brandin Cooks), Robert Woods (Marqise Lee).

    If we want to punish people for quality QB play we have to penalize Robert Woods (Barkley), Stedman Bailey/Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams (Nick Florence), Hopkins (Tajh Boyd).

    Also, Keenan Allen was out in his senior year for both the Washington and Oregon State games (Oregon too), facing neither Poyer nor Trufant. If you want to cite 2011, then you have to take into account that Marvin Jones, a solid receiver in his own right, was at Cal to help out Allen. Using your logic, we'd have to discount his production during 2011.

    Listen, I don't like Keenan Allen until the third round. You have every right to like him more than I do. However, you can't just wantonly disregard factors of college production. Every player had to deal with one or more of those factors. Is it possible that Keenan Allen just had it so much worse than everyone else and he'll suddenly blossom into a wonderful WR despite mediocre senior production? Sure. I don't see it. I see a lot of excuses and very little to entice me as a prospect.
    Last edited by NUGap; 04-08-2013 at 02:15 AM.
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    Ireland considering Keenan Allen at 12?

    Quote Originally Posted by arammell View Post
    I can't imagine the uproar on this site if we took Keenan over the all mighty Tavon Austin. I personally think Patterson is the guy to snag if we go wr at #12
    I think most would be so relieved the pick is not an OT or guard there would be no backlash. I agree on Patterson, especially since we have depth at the position and can bring him along slow.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUGap View Post
    *lots of data and effort*
    I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. You did a lot of work to make your point.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greyboy View Post
    There's alot of variables in football. First of all it is true what you state. Being a guy with no one to help can inflate numbers if the situation is right (see Hartline last year with all his targets, but he is no better than a #3/4 WR on a good team, and can't make plays, falls down like a pile of crap after a catch with no one around him all too often, and can't do what is most important- score touchdowns on his own merit).

    On the other hand, however, Stedman Bailey doesn't have close to the TD's he had if it wasn't for his offense, but more importantly, if he didn't have Austin on his team. Tavon Austin is the one that defenses were terrified of, not Bailey. Bailey was more of a recipient of Austin than vice versa. In other words, Bailey does not do what he did if he was the "only guy" on a team.

    A guy like Keenan Allen can produce whether he is THE guy, or a complimentary guy, just as well... Just like Reggie Wayne, it didn't matter if Marvin Harrison was on his WR corps or a raw rookie, the dude was feared and damn good. That's what very good players do. Keenan Allen is like that. The Hartline's, Bess's, and Gibson's (and I will say right now- the Stedman Bailey's) are not close to that level
    Outstanding post....good points :-)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mudder1310 View Post
    I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. You did a lot of work to make your point.
    *I've done a lot of work to have a strong opinion. It's easy to write it up and have strong convictions when you've actually put in the effort.
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