http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=697121

If you aren't convinced that guy at #12 is going to be a perennial pro bowler, trade down. Then trade down again.

Jimmy Johnson may not have been the brightest guy but he did come to the conclusion that he was going to hit on a certain percentage of his picks, and the probability of coming away with a quality player at 10 wasn't that much different than at 20 or 30.