I was once a normal kid
Till the Devil came down and flipped my lid
He gave me a switchblade and he gave me a muse
Then he vomited acid all over my shoes
If anyone's ever taken statistics or business probability courses, a hodgepodge of 5% of the voters, motivated to vote early, is the equivalent of 1-2 precincts reporting the first Tuesday each November. It's hardly statistically relevant nor predictive. And the obstructionist republicans? How many were directly installed/funded/motivated by Eagles Carpetbagger and hypocrite Normie Braman? Unless the county guarantees Ross a percentage of increased hospitality and re-tail related sales tax revenues generated during Superbowl weeks, why would he want to solely finance essentially a welfare windfall for a county that doesn't support the team and likely would have come out en masse if voting to fund a new Soccer futball league team.
Everyone would be better off if Ross could orchestrate a deal with Broward (unlikely) or PB County ... hell even Martin County with a stadium situated somewhere around Jupiter would end up being more commercially viable than the status quo.
There are plenty of independent economic studies that shows having an NFL team is far from a boon to your local economy. Does it have an impact of course just like the Jehovas Witness convention or whatever is supposed to impact Broward .
Having a football team is more of a quality of life issue to people that are fans. The whole model is broken because u have a league that makes record profits , increasing their salary cap each year without any real plan to fund stadiums except to force the public to support them another way. Living in Tampa the only real affect the Bucs have had on me is to make me pay 1/2 cent more in taxes to put more money in the pockets of the Glazers.
Also not sure how Bramen is any more of a hypocrite than Ross who never really wanted a vote in first place out of his own mouth
Member of the EIB club
1. This isn't (or wouldn't have been) simply one measure on a wide ranging ballot. This was a special referendum about one issue and one issue only. That changes the voter dynamic significantly from a normal election. The only people who were going to show up at all -- early or not -- were those passionately for or against. That kind of uniformity is the very opposite of a hodgepodge, to me.
2. Generally speaking, Democrats vote early more often than Republicans. If the early vote turnout was this tilted toward Republicans, that would indicate the likelihood that the margin of defeat by election day would have been even larger than it already was.
As I indicated in my first point, it's reasonable to assume a different from normal distribution of R/D/I in this kind of referendum. However, so far as it goes, the actions in general of the members of certain parties might still hold statistically. In other words, a Republican might still be expected to act like a Republican, which means being more likely to vote on election day.
Momentum is really moving against Ross right now. He has a losing team, local fans are not diehard like they used to be (attendance shows this along with the fact of many people from other parts of the country who support other teams moving there), and now he can't get any support from the state. Sure he feels backed in a corner. His only option at this point if he wants to keep the team and keep the team in Miami is to win and win consistently. If Miami becomes a winner again over time fans may come back. Then if he can win the fans back then he might find support to make changes to the stadium.
It does not surprise me that the vote was not going the Fins' way with the early voting. Those angry and charged up vote first. However, those more supportive would have hit the polls on the actual day of the vote.
The percentage surprises me. I would have expected closer to 53-47 against. The one certainty was the proposal would fare much better, at least 15-20 points better, in a referendum than in a general election. Perhaps it started further away than I anticipated. The 15-20 points could already be reflected in that 57-43, and it would have been 77% against in a November vote.
I thought the late barrage of Dolphin media money had a big chance to push it over the top. Based on this number, that likely was incorrect.
Marc Caputo is always an impressive voice within the Herald. I appreciate that he ripped Ross and detailed the considerable problems in getting this bill through the legislature in the final week. Caputo sent me a few emails in November, after there was uncertainty whether my dad's vote had counted. He died after sending in his absentee ballot, but before election day.