It's about the home grown talent. I think you can use grouping mechanisms to skew things a little bit and say this or say that.
The Patriots in 2012 only had about 16% of their snaps taken by significant outside acquisitions (Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Daniel Fells, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kellen Winslow, Steve Gregory, Aqib Talib). The rest were taken by home-growns (guys who as far as I can tell have never even taken a snap outside of New England) or guys that were little insignificant waiver wire type pickups at the time they were acquired (Rob Ninkovich, Donald Thomas, Danny Woodhead, etc).
Miami in 2012 had about 26% of their snaps in 2012 taken up by significant outside acquisitions like Anthony Fasano, Richie Incognito, Matt Moore, Reggie Bush, Randy Starks, Tony McDaniel, Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson. I think the point being raised in this thread is that if you look at the sources of the 26.3% and then what's happened this off season, that number is about to go up significantly. Reggie Bush and Tony McDaniel are out and both look like they'll be replaced from within by home-growns/cheapies, but that's only 837 snaps. Karlos Dansby (1123) and Kevin Burnett (1096) are out but Phil Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe have replaced them, so that's a wash. Anthony Fasano (921) is out but Dustin Keller replaces him, another wash. Yet now instead of 95% of our receiver snaps coming from home-growns/cheapies, we're looking at Mike Wallace and possibly Brandon Gibson being two out of the top three players at that position. That's probably 1400 more snaps going to expensive outsiders. You sub out Jake Long for Tyson Clabo, you're looking at another 1000 snaps to an expensive outsider. If they replace Jorvorskie with Vonta Leach that's another 300 snaps. If Richard Marshall plays the whole year as opposed to how he got hurt last year then that'll be an extra 700 snaps he'll be hawking away as an expensive outside acquisition. Give another 1000 snaps to Brent Grimes while we're at it.
This suggests that upwards of 44% of the team's snaps in 2013 could be taken by expensive outside acquisitions. That's a lot.
Someone mentioned the Seahawks as a model for what the Dolphins are doing and I'm not sure I see that. Taking aside what the Seahawks have done this off season, only 14.6% of their snaps in 2012 were taken by significant outside acquisitions (TE Zach Miller, WR Sidney Rice, RB Marshawn Lynch, DT Jason Jones, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Leon Washington, QB Matt Flynn). They acquired Percy Harvin, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Antoine Winfield, while ditching Jason Jones, Braylon Edwards, Leon Washington and Matt Flynn. This should increase their percentage taken by significant acquisitions but I doubt it'll even come close to Miami's expected 44%. I don't particularly feel like mapping out the full impact of their acquisitions but they'd have to be adding on like 7000 more snaps in order to catch up with what Miami looks like it's about to be doing.
Last edited by ckparrothead; 07-10-2013 at 05:40 PM.
CK, love the twitter pic. Good stuff.
"Now when I go to the bathroom I find out who my friends are." - Jake Scott after both broken hands were in casts following the 1972 season
Let's say an average draft nets 3-4starters. In general it takes 7 years to replenish a starting roster with players, based on the short life span of a player and free agency this rate increases. I get the whole build through the draft argument, and that my math is general at best, but looking at it this way is basically meaningless. If you want to take into account the strength of the entire roster 53 and practice squad, superstars, good players at impact spots and numerous other variables go for it. I just think this whole discussion can be rerouted into several valuable points and really not provide a direct correlation how the OP's thought truly impacts a teams success.
I believe scheme change can make that number go up as well. the move to the zone-blocking scheme, the west-coast offense and the 4-3 defense all at once required a ton of new types of players in a short period of time. it doesn't mean bad drafting in every case
in the end its coaching and qb.
1. Melvin Gordon RB
2. Bernardrick McKinney ILB
3. Steve Nelson CB
4. John Miller G
5. Adrian Amos FS
5. Kenny Bell WR
we have a lot of home growns to be/are:
the two rookie cb's
not really sure anything matters on home grown here unless your talking starters, but this team is loaded w/ talent at every position.
Must be a slow day