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Thread: Why the Shutdown is a Republican Victory

  1. -31
    phins_4_ever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LANGER72 View Post

    You disagree with yourself or don't know/understand what you wrote?
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    "You may think that you are some kind of god to these people. But we both know what you really are."
    "What's that? A criminal?"
    "Worse. A politician."
    Source: Under The Dome

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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  2. -32
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    Quote Originally Posted by LANGER72 View Post
    The tactic was politically attractive at the beginning, but it had zero chance of succeeding. The tea part right needed to satisfy their followers even if it was a dead end. There is still over a year to go before the elections and many more budget battles. This particular incident will be just a footnote.
    As I mentioned above, when the actual increase income tax from the ACA "Tax" occurs, that is what will resonate with voters IMHO.
    The other group will be trying to absorb large increases to their insurance premiums.
    IMHO, It will not be a great time to be a democrat. They will likely be spouting their talking points, but the reality will be the cost.
    Finally, in 2016, when full implementation occurs, Obama will be riding out of town. The successor will either increase taxes again, or push to eliminate the ACA all together. I feel it will be eliminated, because the economy is going nowhere, and the deficits will be even greater. It cannot be sustained.
    which shows to me thatt the extreme right (tea party) is too influential in the republican party. maybe as you say this effect will become a footnote and in the long run wont matter.but the tea party is still too influential.I could take myself to voting for a republican if they werent so tied to the tea party
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    Quote Originally Posted by nick1 View Post
    which shows to me thatt the extreme right (tea party) is too influential in the republican party. maybe as you say this effect will become a footnote and in the long run wont matter.but the tea party is still too influential.I could take myself to voting for a republican if they werent so tied to the tea party
    It is not that the Tea Party is too influential but that their message was infected by the Religious Right. The Tea Party started strictly as a fiscal movement, which I wholeheartedly agree with, but morphed into this social issue abomination. The Conservatives can pretty much become very relevant very quickly if they would just leave their moral mandates and social agendas at the door. Stick to the economy, fiscal responsibility, and taxes. Romney was doing very well until he strayed into the social issues and Obama crushed him. Even most Liberals are bailing on Obama and his ludicrous spending. I think there is a real possibility that the economy and the dollar crash before the next presidential election and the Republicans have a real opportunity but they need to leave the social issues alone. The Religious Right will vote for them regardless or not vote at all just like the Ultra Liberals voted for Obama despite thinking he was too conservative. I really expect the Republicans to lose badly in the midterms but stand to really swing things in 2016 because the Dems will pay for the economy collapsing. Just my opinion.
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  4. -34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spesh View Post
    The other paragraph quoted i have to protest. Theres been one constant with those who identify themselves with the Tea Party during the shutdown: not only are their efforts just, but they will be rewarded for it with a trip to the White House. Anonymous politicians, aides, and even donors have all come out and stated they think they could win an election with these tactics. Theres been a consistent enough theme that i tend to believe it, especially as it fits into their self-delusional naivety and ideology. I threw up another thread last night showing the response from conservatives concerning the GOP. The Tea Party feels its taken over and is not being given the respect it expects, they are not content to simply be a part of the Republican party, they want to run it and are willing to bail and start from scratch if they dont get their way. If they cant even play well as the major influence in the party they identify with, how could they be content to a single part of a government they feel is destroying the land they so desperately love?
    You might be right. That could indeed be their ambition and they see their strategies as a direct method of achieving it. But it's hard for me to ignore the fact that ****ting in the pool -- as it were -- serves their purposes just as it is. The natural human tendency to just blame everyone and become more disgusted with government helps them, far more than it helps the Democrats. It's just my instinct to ask the old "cui bono?" question.

    But it also might be giving them too much credit. Sometimes Daffy Duck really is daffy and not some kind of bizarro genius.

    I mostly agree with the rest of your post. Its not the first time ive heard Obama nominated Hilary because of that influence, but ive always had some reservations about it. While Obama was willing the compromise to get what he wanted, he always seemed to take previous digs very personally early in his Presidency. For example, Ive seen stories about him despising Bill Clinton for missing the opportunity to advance the progressive movement during the onset of the internet advent, and they apparently only soothed things out after 1) Obama gained experience "in the game" and 2) bonded over their shared fondness of golf(and, as countless women and the American public have found: its just so damned tough to stay angry at Bill Clinton). His indignation concerning Hilary seemed much deeper and his nomination of her was all but forced upon him due to the circumstances rather then an attempt to gain an ally.
    Unless you're a woman he raped.

    But yes, there's a natural tension between Obama and Clinton.... who saw Obama's rise -- rightly, in my view -- as a repudiation of the Clinton legacy. Clinton was and is volatile, combative, centrist and a guy who presided over what was then unprecedented political tension in Washington. A lot of Democrats in Washington didn't want to go back to that, and they backed Obama. Some of them were longtime Clinton "allies" and the betrayals hurt, none more than Ted Kennedy, who basically called Obama the true heir to Kennedy Liberalism, implicitly branding Clinton as a sell out. That had to sting, especially since Clinton is obsessed with his legacy and feels like Democrats should have groveled at his feet for capturing the White House when other Democrats were sitting around picking their butts. That no one followed his lead politically rankled him then and still does.

    Obama played to these differences in temperament and policy in ways both subtle and not, especially in the primaries, and when the messaging started to get traction among Democrats it just infuriated Clinton even more. Obama's people realized this and started baiting him (the "transformative figure" comment, for example, was imo pure baiting), and sure enough he cracked like Brett Favre in crunch time with a few badly timed comments to reporters, especially in South Carolina. Hilary had to basically order him off the campaign trail iirc but the damage was done. The combination of Clinton anger and the Clinton campaign's none too subtle Southern Strategy -- pushed for by Bill Clinton -- sealed the deal for Kennedy, who's endorsement gave lots of other Democrats cover.

    Anyway, when you read Team of Rivals it's fascinating how many similarities there are between Seward's situation and Hilary Clinton's. Seward was the obvious heir apparent, groomed to lead, everyone's obvious choice. Lincoln truly came out of nowhere, helped as much as anything by the fact that the convention that year was in Illinois, allowing political allies to control key leadership positions. The main difference being that Seward eventually grew to love and respect Lincoln, where I'm not sure how much if any Clinton and Obama's relationship changed in the years she was Secretary of State (there have been dozens of books written about the inner workings of the Obama White House but I have not read a single one. Maybe they got to be drinking buddies like Hilary and John McCain are, but somehow I doubt it).



    #freespesh
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