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Thread: Why the Shutdown is a Republican Victory

  1. -11
    Spesh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheWalrus View Post
    I don't think the late 80s, early 90s Democrats are a good model for predicting what the Republicans will or should do right now. Bill Clinton might have won the presidency in 1992 but he lost the Congress in 1994 and spent basically his entire presidency with an opposition Congress. The Democratic Party didn't get it's **** together and remake it's base and it's image until 2006, and when it did it wasn't in the Clinton mold. It was in the Netroots mold.

    Right now what the Republican party thinks is wrong with it is that it's not conservative enough. They're tired of compromise candidates like McCain and Romney who the party elders say have to be nominated because "they can win" and then those guys go out there and don't win. This time they're going to go with their hearts and see what happens. Then, if they get their asses handed to them, maybe they'll take a long look in the mirror and the Republican answer to Bill Clinton might have a shot. But that reckoning, if it's indeed coming, is like eight or 10 years away. For now they'll continue with the purity routine and keep pulling the party to the right, buoyed by the invincibility that redistricting has given them.
    I agree about the Hilary stuff, especially riding the wave of goodwill.

    I agree with most of the rest, except for a point it seems to suggest: that Republicans have a chance in 2016 after they double down on their routine. Granted, trends and what not, but their positions, tactics, and rhetoric have proven to be poisonous. Save for 2010, they havent been able to win much up at this point and public opinion towards them is only going downhill the more they use damaging measures.

    No doubt they feel they are losing because they arent conservative enough. But, as i know you are aware, thats simply not whats happening. In fact, the more conservatives talk the more it alludes to my earlier example. Democrats used to make excuses for their election losses- the country is to racist, to greedy, hoodwinked by the charismatic Reagan. Now conservatives feel they are losing because the country is to lazy, expect handouts, have been swooned by Obama.
    While that time period isnt a perfect example of whats happening now or what will happen(and i didnt mean to suggest it was a perfect example), there are some similarities, especially the fact that Republicans arent at the point of fixing the things they need to in order to win over the public. And they wont until they get their dicks kicked in again. In that way, the right is 8 years away from its "reckoning".
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    Why the Shutdown is a Republican Victory

    Yeah. Spin it however you want. Until the Tea Baggers are gone the GOP is dead.
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  3. -13
    phins_4_ever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogbone34 View Post
    the GOP will continue to fissure. the establishment right/french republicans have been at war with the fiscally sane populace reagan republicans for years. usually left wing lunacy brings them together. the split is much bigger now. tea party started over W and the debt. democrats can't split because their souls belong to daddy government. the left isn't into liberty these days, they're into the koch brothers.

    its funny when liberals brand the tea party as nut jobs. it makes me think of nancy pelosi and the team. a little self awareness could go a long way.
    a) fiscally sane and Reagan in one sentence? Ouch!
    b) the left is into Koch brother? Ouchy!
    c) Teaparty started over Bush? Tripple ouchy!

    Doing some revisionist history?

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    LANGER72's Avatar
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    The biggest problem with US politics is that we cannot find a fiscally conservative, yet socially moderate candidate that can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time.
    Although I could have voted for Hilliary over McCain and Romney in the last 2 elections, her star has faded IMHO. She has proven herself as a liar with respect to Benghazi.
    I believe she could have done more and she actually made some very bad decisions. That did it for me. She is not presidential. She is a self serving and self absorbed Rodham...liberal elitist at heart.
    I believe that the US is moving toward a 3rd party that most Americans will rally around...to the chagrin and opposition of both now defective left and right wings.
    They have damaged the country over the last 9 years and most Americans are sensing that nothing will change with either established, and now extremist(Obama-Cruztea) parties.
    The moderates that could make a difference are spineless. I am still waiting for someone to step up.
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  5. -15
    TheWalrus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spesh View Post
    I agree about the Hilary stuff, especially riding the wave of goodwill.

    I agree with most of the rest, except for a point it seems to suggest: that Republicans have a chance in 2016 after they double down on their routine. Granted, trends and what not, but their positions, tactics, and rhetoric have proven to be poisonous. Save for 2010, they havent been able to win much up at this point and public opinion towards them is only going downhill the more they use damaging measures.

    No doubt they feel they are losing because they arent conservative enough. But, as i know you are aware, thats simply not whats happening. In fact, the more conservatives talk the more it alludes to my earlier example. Democrats used to make excuses for their election losses- the country is to racist, to greedy, hoodwinked by the charismatic Reagan. Now conservatives feel they are losing because the country is to lazy, expect handouts, have been swooned by Obama.
    While that time period isnt a perfect example of whats happening now or what will happen(and i didnt mean to suggest it was a perfect example), there are some similarities, especially the fact that Republicans arent at the point of fixing the things they need to in order to win over the public. And they wont until they get their dicks kicked in again. In that way, the right is 8 years away from its "reckoning".
    There's always a "chance" in that "non-zero probability" kind of way, but I don't think they have an actual chance. My point is only that the right wing is going to demand an actual champion of it's ideas this time, not a pretender. After the fallout from that, then we'll see what direction they take. But that's years down the road, and given how much these people live in the bubble, they could go on a "the election was stolen" kind of kick and feel like they need another chance, pushing the reckoning back a decade or more. Who knows? It's literally like predicting what an insane person is going to do.

    But there's another factor in this, too. As long as redistricting holds up the House in the new status quo, they may feel like winning the presidency isn't particularly necessary. Regardless of who the president is, nothing moves without a filibuster proof majority... and there's just enough of these guys to maintain a filibuster. For these people, a dysfunctional government that does nothing is actually sort of a victory, because not only is the government not passing active legislation that could expand the powers of the government, but it helps the narrative that government is broken and terrible and needs to be restrained which helps them philosophically... like somebody running a lawnmower over with a truck to prove it's unreliable.

    Hilary is going to hold out on running until fairly late, imo. Based on what I know of her personality, she's going to want to extract apologies and promises of loyalty from all the major politicos who fled her for Obama, guys like Durbin and Daschle and on down. She doesn't have her husband's ability to forgive and forget.

    I read "A Team of Rivals" a few years back. It's the Doris Kearns Goodwin book about Lincoln that Spielberg's movie Lincoln was based on. And the main takeaway from that book for me was Lincoln's ability to forgive people who were formerly his rivals... how he would time that forgiveness for the exact time they would need forgiveness most and make them loyal to him when they had formerly been his political enemy. "Don't I destroy my enemy if I make them my friend?" was a quote of his (or something to that effect). To that end he allowed himself to be humiliated by guys like McClellan and Salmon P. Chase who he needed to help win the war, and appeared with all humility and deference to William H. Seward -- who had fully prepared and expected to be the Republican nominee -- in order to convince Seward to become Secretary of State. Seward agreed partly because he felt like he could boss Lincoln around and become the de-facto president, but he learned quickly who the real boss was, and came to love Lincoln.

    Clinton had a bit of that, ****heel that he was and is. Hilary has none of it... even though Obama's nomination of her as Secretary of State was born directly out of reading the book.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LANGER72 View Post
    The biggest problem with US politics is that we cannot find a fiscally conservative, yet socially moderate candidate that can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time.
    Although I could have voted for Hilliary over McCain and Romney in the last 2 elections, her star has faded IMHO. She has proven herself as a liar with respect to Benghazi.
    I believe she could have done more and she actually made some very bad decisions. That did it for me. She is not presidential. She is a self serving and self absorbed Rodham...liberal elitist at heart.
    I believe that the US is moving toward a 3rd party that most Americans will rally around...to the chagrin and opposition of both now defective left and right wings.
    They have damaged the country over the last 9 years and most Americans are sensing that nothing will change with either established, and now extremist(Obama-Cruztea) parties.
    The moderates that could make a difference are spineless. I am still waiting for someone to step up.
    I thought the Rodhams were conservatives.

    Anyway, as I say to everyone who brings up the idea of a third party, what would be the party platform? The socially moderate, fiscally conservative thing isn't going to fly, imo. Fiscal conservatism flies in the face of what most socially liberal people want. Similarly, fiscal conservatism and, say, abortion rights, is antithetical to a lot of people. This kind of "moderate" really only seems to exist in the Northeast (New Hampshire, Maine) and the southwest. There aren't enough people in those two areas to win the presidency.
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  7. -17
    Dogbone34's Avatar
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    i think it will be tough to beat the pantsuit. maybe Christie because he has a big personality.

    2016 women will rule the white house, the fed and the IMF...plus poehler and fey will still be hosting the golden globes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogbone34 View Post
    i think it will be tough to beat the pantsuit. maybe Christie because he has a big personality.

    2016 women will rule the white house, the fed and the IMF...plus poehler and fey will still be hosting the golden globes
    I think that Christie has a shot, he is kicking Buonos ass up here. Christie is very charismatic and likable, plus he is a house hold name because of all his interviews on late night tv. Every move that he is making is seemingly for 2016, special election that was the other day wasn't on the same day as the governor election, ensuring he wins the state by 20 pts at least. The number one thing he has going for him in the primaries is the fact that he wasn't involved with the government shut down, which all the senators/congressmen that run will have to answer for.

    I wanted Hilary over Obama in 2008 because I think she would have been a better leader. I just can't stand Barack as president, he just always appears weak domestically and internationally, which is a shame because he really does seem like a good guy. However, Hilary is not very likable, she doesn't have the charisma that Bill or Obama has which is one of the reasons she lost to Barack in 2008. She does have her faults, and will be hammered for her lack of success as secretary of state and as a senator. We all have our favorite Hilary bloopers, my 2 personal favorites, the sniper fire on the tarmac in Bosnia, and deducting $1.50 off her taxes for donating Bills used underwear.
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    LANGER72's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheWalrus View Post
    I thought the Rodhams were conservatives.

    Anyway, as I say to everyone who brings up the idea of a third party, what would be the party platform? The socially moderate, fiscally conservative thing isn't going to fly, imo. Fiscal conservatism flies in the face of what most socially liberal people want. Similarly, fiscal conservatism and, say, abortion rights, is antithetical to a lot of people. This kind of "moderate" really only seems to exist in the Northeast (New Hampshire, Maine) and the southwest. There aren't enough people in those two areas to win the presidency.
    The Rodmans are not conservative, they are wealthy liberal elitist. We could argue that all day.
    Fiscally conservative doesn't contradict being socially moderate. Bill Clinton could be described as FC/SM. He compromised with a republican congress.
    The current POTUS and his circus do not want or need to compromise. They hold 2/3 power including veto. There is no check and balance.
    Electing Hilliary would only be slightly better than Obama, and not many folks want to see this continue. I cannot honestly name anyone I know personally who would vote for a democrat even if it was Hilliary.
    I hope more independents can take office in 2014. The government has been infested with liberals like a dog with ticks...money sucking parasites..and they need to be stymied and new ideas and positive spirit of cooperation induced.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrhankey81701 View Post
    I think that Christie has a shot, he is kicking Buonos ass up here. Christie is very charismatic and likable, plus he is a house hold name because of all his interviews on late night tv. Every move that he is making is seemingly for 2016, special election that was the other day wasn't on the same day as the governor election, ensuring he wins the state by 20 pts at least. The number one thing he has going for him in the primaries is the fact that he wasn't involved with the government shut down, which all the senators/congressmen that run will have to answer for.

    I wanted Hilary over Obama in 2008 because I think she would have been a better leader. I just can't stand Barack as president, he just always appears weak domestically and internationally, which is a shame because he really does seem like a good guy. However, Hilary is not very likable, she doesn't have the charisma that Bill or Obama has which is one of the reasons she lost to Barack in 2008. She does have her faults, and will be hammered for her lack of success as secretary of state and as a senator. We all have our favorite Hilary bloopers, my 2 personal favorites, the sniper fire on the tarmac in Bosnia, and deducting $1.50 off her taxes for donating Bills used underwear.

    It is difficult to name any accomplishments by Hilliary Rodham Clinton while in office. Other than spreading her cankles for Bill and being a devoted wife while Bill was applying yogurt earrings to Monica, as Sec of State she blinked in her only moment to show some cajoles while our Ambassador was being raped and murdered. Her leadership has been poor. She is just the political heir apparent. That's about it.
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