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Thread: Is Having (or Taking) More Time to Throw the Ball Overrated?

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Interesting Is Having (or Taking) More Time to Throw the Ball Overrated?

    One would think that if a QB had more time, or took more time, to throw the ball, he would perform better.

    This doesn't seem to be the case, however.

    Here are the data pertaining to this for this season (from PFF):

    Name Drop backs To Throw To Attempt To Sack To Scramble Drop backs
    (< 2.6 sec.)
    % Att. Comp. Comp % Sk NFL QB Rating Drop backs (2.6 sec. or more) % Att. Comp. Comp % Sk NFL QB Rating
    Michael Vick 160 3.4 3.06 4.58 5.32 52 32.5 52 36 69.2 0 106.5 108 67.5 80 35 43.8 12 80.3
    Terrelle Pryor 174 3.36 2.94 4.59 5.25 66 37.9 66 49 74.2 0 92 108 62.1 71 40 56.3 19 79.4
    Russell Wilson 235 3.21 2.82 4.05 5.12 98 41.7 97 66 68 1 108.9 137 58.3 89 49 55.1 19 85.5
    Geno Smith 262 3.2 2.9 4.5 5.49 86 32.8 85 52 61.2 1 72.9 176 67.2 137 78 56.9 24 75.7
    Colin Kaepernick 216 3.13 2.77 4.37 5.17 88 40.7 88 57 64.8 0 101.5 128 59.3 94 46 48.9 13 69.5
    Brandon Weeden 221 3.06 2.84 4.37 5.6 77 34.8 77 46 59.7 0 75 144 65.2 117 57 48.7 21 61.4
    Cam Newton 198 2.97 2.66 4.64 5.12 84 42.4 83 54 65.1 1 96.4 114 57.6 87 54 62.1 17 93.7
    Andrew Luck 260 2.91 2.65 4.13 4.84 120 46.2 119 80 67.2 1 104.1 140 53.8 105 56 53.3 14 76.7
    Alex D. Smith 293 2.9 2.58 3.85 5 145 49.5 143 94 65.7 2 89.6 148 50.5 104 51 49 15 67.2
    E.J. Manuel 174 2.89 2.57 4.36 5.28 85 48.9 85 52 61.2 0 84.5 89 51.1 64 33 51.6 12 74
    Robert Griffin III 263 2.85 2.65 4.38 5.09 140 53.2 139 93 66.9 0 94.3 123 46.8 99 50 50.5 11 68.2
    Joe Flacco 293 2.79 2.65 4.2 5.1 153 52.2 150 95 63.3 3 88.4 140 47.8 119 65 54.6 17 66.9
    Eli Manning 290 2.78 2.68 3.89 4.1 137 47.2 137 78 56.9 0 60.8 153 52.8 131 68 51.9 17 72.4
    Jake Locker 174 2.78 2.5 4.15 5.04 91 52.3 91 63 69.2 0 113.5 83 47.7 60 31 51.7 12 73.8
    Matt Schaub 249 2.74 2.68 3.61 4.4 128 51.4 128 85 66.4 0 64.7 121 48.6 105 65 61.9 15 96.1
    Jay Cutler 243 2.73 2.6 3.7 4.57 118 48.6 118 85 72 0 100.7 125 51.4 105 61 58.1 10 83.2
    Drew Brees 256 2.73 2.62 3.75 4.58 122 47.7 122 91 74.6 0 113.1 134 52.3 114 66 57.9 14 92.3
    Ben Roethlisberger 237 2.71 2.49 4.33 5.32 123 51.9 121 88 72.7 2 94.2 114 48.1 90 55 61.1 19 90
    Tony Romo 284 2.69 2.58 4.03 4.58 150 52.8 149 105 70.5 1 94 134 47.2 115 76 66.1 15 112.4
    Sam Bradford 284 2.67 2.58 3.47 4.51 132 46.5 129 85 65.9 3 87.5 152 53.5 133 74 55.6 12 94.4
    Aaron Rodgers 245 2.64 2.44 3.73 5.15 140 57.1 140 102 72.9 0 109.3 105 42.9 79 41 51.9 15 97.2
    Tom Brady 305 2.57 2.49 3.56 4.63 174 57 170 111 65.3 4 83.9 131 43 113 47 41.6 16 63.7
    john beck 254 2.53 2.48 3.67 3.7 153 60.2 152 112 73.7 1 104.5 101 39.8 92 59 64.1 8 108.3
    Carson Palmer 289 2.52 2.41 3.6 5.4 171 59.2 170 110 64.7 1 71.3 118 40.8 96 51 53.1 19 66.2
    Chad Henne 190 2.52 2.37 3.91 4.47 114 60 114 74 64.9 0 87.2 76 40 58 29 50 14 46.1
    Andy Dalton 277 2.51 2.29 4.08 4.8 169 61 169 122 72.2 0 92.6 108 39 80 42 52.5 15 96.5
    Ryan Tannehill 247 2.49 2.34 3.51 4.3 158 64 156 103 66 2 85.5 89 36 61 30 49.2 24 79.5
    Philip Rivers 264 2.47 2.37 3.96 4.88 160 60.6 159 119 74.8 0 104.8 104 39.4 89 65 73 11 123.4
    Peyton Manning 299 2.37 2.34 3.23 184 61.5 184 138 75 0 129.4 115 38.5 106 69 65.1 9 111.4
    Matthew Stafford 303 2.33 2.25 3.53 4.98 207 68.3 205 129 62.9 2 100.3 96 31.7 85 49 57.6 7 83.4
    MEAN 247.97 2.78 2.59 3.99 4.89 127.50 50.67 126.60 85.80 67.57 0.83 93.71 120.47 49.33 95.93 53.07 55.11 14.87 82.96
    STANDARD DEVIATION 42.69 0.28 0.20 0.39 0.44 37.79 9.36 37.31 26.76 4.88 1.12 15.29 23.11 9.36 21.50 14.00 6.82 4.25 17.30
    CORR QBR > 2.5 -0.30 -0.24 -0.25 -0.29
    CORR QBR < 2.5 -0.19 -0.22 -0.17 -0.16

    So what we see here is that the average QB rating in the NFL this year on throws made in 2.5 seconds or less is 93.71, whereas the average QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more is just a shade under 83, more than 10 points less.

    What we also see is that each of the four "time" variables (to throw, to attempt, to sack, and to scramble) are negatively correlated with QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more, meaning that the more time QBs have in that regard, the lower their QB ratings are. These correlations are in the 20s and 30s, so they're not very strong, but they're negative nonetheless, which illustrates the inverse, and possibly counterintuitive, relationship.
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    MadDog 88's Avatar
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    Not everything is black and white. The numbers change based on play calls, coverages, etc. PFF does offer some nice statistical data but a lot of what they put out is worthless babble. After all it is PFF that ranks the entire Dolphins defense 4th based on individual play.
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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadDog 88 View Post
    Not everything is black and white. The numbers change based on play calls, coverages, etc. PFF does offer some nice statistical data but a lot of what they put out is worthless babble. After all it is PFF that ranks the entire Dolphins defense 4th based on individual play.
    Those are subjective grades, however, not objective data like those above.

    What we have above is a fairly dramatic difference in QB rating on the basis of whether QBs take (or are given) a certain amount of time, which one would assume is reliable data as long as the people collecting it are using their stopwatches appropriately. There is no human error possible other than that.
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    J. David Wannyheimer's Avatar
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    lol

    Ice up, Leodis.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    So what we see here is that the average QB rating in the NFL this year on throws made in 2.5 seconds or less is 93.71, whereas the average QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more is just a shade under 83, more than 10 points less.
    so what we see here is that the avg qb rating is higher when the primary is open vs when he is not
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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnespins View Post
    so what we see here is that the avg qb rating is higher when the primary is open vs when he is not
    Entirely possible as an explanation, and a good one I think.

    Also, I took the difference between the two QB ratings (for throws made before 2.6 seconds, and for throws made in 2.6 seconds or more) and correlated it with the percentage of dropbacks in which these QBs have been pressured. That correlation is nil (-0.03), which lends credence to your explanation.
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    One would assume a pass that comes out quick is going to an open primary receiver more often than not, which is a higher percentage pass. As they have more time and go through more reads the chances of them finding someone when their primary read isn't open probably drops a bit. On top of that you're going to need more time for deeper routes to open up, so don't know what these numbers show us at all.

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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grushcow View Post
    One would assume a pass that comes out quick is going to an open primary receiver more often than not, which is a higher percentage pass. As they have more time and go through more reads the chances of them finding someone when their primary read isn't open probably drops a bit. On top of that you're going to need more time for deeper routes to open up, so don't know what these numbers show us at all.
    I think what they might show us is sort of an extension of what you said, that it's more important to call plays that can get a primary receiver open quickly, and then execute those plays well (both the QB and the receiver), than it is to hold blocks longer, move in the pocket, and/or move through one's progression better.

    Of course if that primary receiver isn't open for whatever reason, then obviously those other variables become more important, but the difference in QB rating here says that you get a whole lot more bang for your buck by getting that primary receiver open quickly and getting the ball to him effectively than by doing those other things well.

    What you could take from this in watching games is that as soon as the QB comes off his first target during a play, you can put money on the idea that the play probably isn't going to be as successful as it would be if he were able to hit that target quickly. There are exceptions, of course, but the data show that over the long haul, the quick-hitters are more productive.
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    This really is getting old and the last comment I have is it's ridiculous to think having more time to throw may be over rated. There are times that a QB has all day in the pocket and is simply waiting for something to open up down field. You can spin this in any direction your agenda dictates but for me and most folks with common sense, a QB trying to make a play down field is trying to put his team in a better position for success. The notion that having to much time may be over rated is ludicrous at best. I'm out.
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