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Thread: Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

  1. -11
    Daytona Fin's Avatar
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    Usually losing teams have low rushing attempts when they abandon the run because of playing catch up in the second half. It seems like that's our motto, even though we have led almost every game in the 4th quarter. What drives me crazy is when we get inside the 5 or 10 , it seems like we rarely run the ball.

    ---------- Post added at 07:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:41 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    The Dolphins average 4.1 yards per carry, which is the league average. If the Dolphins "can't do it," then neither can half the teams in the league.
    I am curious to know what that number is if you take tannehill's rushes out of that.
    Last edited by Daytona Fin; 11-27-2013 at 12:33 PM.
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    Some, but in the end it still comes down to the o-line.....

    Just this season some of the better rushing team have some of the poorer QB's

    Jets, Bills, Oakland, Minnesota....all have good run games.

    Last season the Packers struggled due to their poor run game...

    For the Dolphins it is more of an issue with the line and the RB's....the threat of the pass will prevent teams from going with 8 in the box and most are not going 8 in the box on the Dolphins and are easily stopping them with a standard front or even in nickle formation.

    Again, I'm not discrediting the idea that having an elite QB opens up things (it obviously does), but the offensive line plays a even larger role.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    The Dolphins average 4.1 yards per carry, which is the league average. If the Dolphins "can't do it," then neither can half the teams in the league.
    but we can't do it consistently. Our average is inflated because Miller gets 1 yd. 1 yd. -3 yd. 3 yd 1 yd. -5 yd. 40 yard 1 yd 2 yd. 0 yd 0 yd 4 yd -1 yd 17 yd... Etc.
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    royalshank's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NBP81 View Post
    This is a follow up on shouright`s thread regarding the teams lack of rushing attempts. Got curious so I took a look at playoffs teams from the last 4 seasons(since 2009) and I wasn't really surprised of the results... The Fins are on pace to end the season with 336 rushing attempts. The team with the least rushing attempts to make the playoffs in the last four years are the 2011 Detroit Lions with 356. Out of all those playoff teams(48), only 9 made it with less than 400 attempts. Only 2 of those are from the AFC, the 2009 and 2010 Peyton Manning Colts.... NFC teams who made it with less than 400 carries: GB(395), DET(356), ATL(378), NO(380), PHI(384), SEA(385), ARI(365). Now for those who think what we're running is that famous GB offense, consider this, the lower amount of carries that team has put out since 2009 is 395 in 2011 and averages to 422 carries a season. So let me ask you this, WHY do these coaches, who have QBs such as Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady feel like they have to run the ball to have success as a football team. And more importantly, why do some fans think that Ryan Tannehill, in his second pro football season, should be able to do so when absolutely nobody has done it in the last four years?(Im pretty sure it goes much further than that, just too lazy to go further) Its not an excuse guys...
    Agree. Anyone remember our dreadful rushing performance in the '84 SB? We lost because our 5 linemen couldn't run block against 3 down linemen - resulting in 8 total rushing yards for the game. Marino was reduced to 3-long all day and inspite of throwing for 322 our drives all stalled for FGs. We tried to run to get some balance going but our 5 couldn't block their 3 and they had 8 DBs in to try and contain our passing game. If Dan couldn't do it then, what makes us think RT can do it now?
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    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ConvenientTruth View Post
    Some, but in the end it still comes down to the o-line.....

    Just this season some of the better rushing team have some of the poorer QB's

    Jets, Bills, Oakland, Minnesota....all have good run games.
    This is correct, because when you regress QB rating, net YPA, OL pass blocking (as measured by PFF), and OL run blocking (as measured by PFF) against yards per carry, the only significant predictor of yards per carry is OL run blocking.

    However, the Dolphins' OL run blocking is no worse than that of the average team in the league, which suggests they should be running at least as much, if not more (with a developmental QB), than the average team.
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    Shouright - I had another thought pertaining to the argument that the Dolphins' rushing yards per attempt places them in the middle of the pack, implying that their unwillingness to run the ball is not related to their lack of success.

    How important is the standard deviation of a team's yards per rush? The eyeball test leads one to believe that the Dolphins are among the least successful teams running the ball. It seems that the Dolphins' average yards per rush might be inflated by a handful of large gains offset by a plethora of below average gains.

    I would expect that teams whose rushing average is based on a lower standard deviation would have better records as it would demonstrate that they are running the ball more consistently. Now that I think about it more, skewness of yards per rush is probably a better statistic than standard deviation. Or perhaps the coefficient of variation which is average divided by standard deviation.

    I am assuming you do these calculations in Excel, so I'm sure it comes with a skewness function. Anyway, what I am trying to suggest is a means of discounting the impact of the handful of very large rushing gains.

    Curious to get your thoughts...


    Edit - just noticed that Egnew The Goat echoed the same sentiment.


    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    The Dolphins average 4.1 yards per carry, which is the league average. If the Dolphins "can't do it," then neither can half the teams in the league.
    Last edited by nyashfan; 11-27-2013 at 12:21 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Egnew the GOAT View Post
    but we can't do it consistently. Our average is inflated because Miller gets 1 yd. 1 yd. -3 yd. 3 yd 1 yd. -5 yd. 40 yard 1 yd 2 yd. 0 yd 0 yd 4 yd -1 yd 17 yd... Etc.
    That's exactly right. I know Sherman is trying to limit the 3 and outs. He doesn't want to kill drives. But the thing is this, you HAVE NO CHOICE. John Madden even used to say that when we had Marino and Shula, Shula went against his better judgement and when we struggled, allowed Marino to just air it out all the time. Madden said, you have to run it, period.

    It's the coaches job to make it work. It doesn't matter what the yards per carry is. You still need to run the ball. And if you think it's tough NOW, wait until the snow comes, and wait until postseason, because great teams will eat you alive if you can't run the ball.


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    Quote Originally Posted by nyashfan View Post
    Shouright - I had another thought pertaining to the argument that the Dolphins' rushing yards per attempt places them in the middle of the pack, implying that their unwillingness to run the ball is not related to their lack of success.

    How important is the standard deviation of a team's yards per rush? The eyeball test leads one to believe that the Dolphins are among the least successful teams running the ball? It seems that the Dolphins' average yards per rush might be inflated by a handful of large gains offset by a plethora of below average gains.

    I would expect that teams whose rushing average is based on a lower standard deviation would have better records as it would demonstrate that they are running the ball more consistently. Now that I think about it more, skewness of yards per rush is probably a better statistic than standard deviation.

    I am assuming you do these calculations in Excel, so I'm sure it comes with a skewness function. Anyway, what I am trying to suggest is a means of discounting the impact of the handful of very large rushing gains.

    Curious to get your thoughts...


    Edit - just noticed that Egnew The Goat echoed the same sentiment.
    You're talking about run "success rate" here, which is found on this page (look for the column entitled "Run SR(%)"):

    http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php

    The Dolphins' percentage of successful runs (41.1%) places it 12th in the league right now.
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    nyashfan's Avatar
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    Wow! Hard to believe the Dolphins rank 12th! I looked at the glossary but don't have a feel as to what defines a successful run. Suppose it's 3rd and 18 and the Dolphins play it safe and run, gaining 7 yards. The defense would be conceding the run to protect against a big passing play. Would that be categorized as a successful run? I think it is very ambitious to define these advanced statistics with proper context.

    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    You're talking about run "success rate" here, which is found on this page (look for the column entitled "Run SR(%)"):

    http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php

    The Dolphins' percentage of successful runs (41.1%) places it 12th in the league right now.
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    I think the problem again lies with our line. We did some of our best running..when we used essentially an extra o lineman. It seems like...our line can run block ..but only when we pack the extra beef. Which then takes away from our passing attack. We can't run and pass out of the same formations.

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