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Thread: Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

  1. -41
    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnespins View Post
    these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.
    The correlation between wins and rushing attempts differential holds true in the first half as well, when the portion of your post I highlighted doesn't apply.

    Don't folks realize that balance means unpredictability, which keeps opposing teams from knowing as often how to defend you most effectively?
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  2. -42
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    I would think step one in working with that would be to be as unpredictable as possible. And I would think that would help as well with the presence of a developmental quarterback.

    When the team can establish no identity either on the ground or through the air, and is relegated to only average levels of performance in both areas, I would think that keeping defenses off-balance would be the first order of business. Instead, Sherman is abandoning the run and putting the offense on his developmental QB, and becoming all too predictable in the process.
    and who knows maybe down the road the qb will be better for it...i tend to lean that will be the case...hes definitely putting a lot on the qb and putting him under fire on the regular...

    i see the qb and passing game as more of a strength and asset than the running game...and i trust it more from the aspect that the qb has proven to me that despite all he has on his plate he's smart with the football and makes good reads and checks at the los...

    he may not be ready yet to play at a consistently high level given these current situations but the natural growth i expect and i see already from year one to now tells me he will be...

    kills me though that we arent going full no huddle and tempo yet...once that happens we can offset some of these weaknesses in both phases
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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  3. -43
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    I'm not even sure how I would handle the problem of stacked boxes and poor personnel if I'm the offensive coordinator, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't simply abandon the run completely though. I think you need to keep the running plays at a certain percentage no matter how poorly its working, what I would do is use a lot more reverses than average and on a lot of plays have the o-line run block for a short pass-run option with Tannehill, just make sure you drill it into his head not to take a hit trying to get an extra yard.

    I think the offensive coordinator position is the hardest position on a team just a notch below head coach, and it probably should be occupied by a young imaginative mind. Sherman is probably great at the coaching part of the job but he's getting killed by defensive coordinators in the planning and strategy part of it.
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    Something to add to the argument is the 3 WR sets and the lack of a FB. If you guys have seen the Packers throw Eddie Lacy at anyone this year it's smashmouth FB at its finest. Without a real FB on the roster we don't have a chance to play the I formation and just attempt to beat the crap out of a defense. There are times in a game when you need to be able to do so...especially protecting a late lead. The few times I do remember anything similar we've tried has failed miserably with Egnew at FB (I'm thinking of the safety in the Tampa Bay game). Thoughts???
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  5. -45
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    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    Are you aware of any data that support the belief that the Dolphins get stuffed for negative yards any more often than the average team in the league?

    The data I'm aware of actually points out that they're 12th in the league in terms of their percentage of successful runs.

    That said, however, once again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.
    Shou and Co., please forget the promising appearance of the 4.1 rushing average. It means absolutely nothing in this case. Here's why:

    I believe other teams are getting 3-4 yards a pop and an occasional 10-30. That's typical for a decent rushing game. Their 4 yard average is constructive.

    1. It earns them balance, which is needed to loosen up tight coverage of receivers, pulling the defense in closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the passing game a better chance of success.

    2. It gives them a real chance to run out the clock as halves close. If you can be fairly certain of 3.0 each rushing attempt, all you have to do is run it 3 times and get lucky on one of them for that extra yard. Even if you don't quite make it, you have the option of going for it on 4th and short, and likely making it. You've also run minutes of precious time off the clock or forced your opponent to take defensive time outs. Not ideal for them!

    3. If the opposing defense tries to stack the box against a rush, especially on an obvious rushing play like 4th and inches, there's no better time to attempt a play action pass! (approaching 85% chance of success, I'd wager).

    This is what the Dolphins of the '70s did all the time.

    On the other hand, our current running game is so sporadic that it cannot be counted on earning a 3rd and 1 conversion, for heaven's sake. Are we even above 30% for the year? I've be surprised if we are. That is NOT constructive. I can see why Sherman thinks he must pass as much as he does, even when we really, really need a first or to run down the clock dependably.
    Last edited by ATL_PHIN_FAN; 11-27-2013 at 08:27 PM.
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  6. -46
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    1972 Dolphins Logo2013 Dolphins LogoCam Wake 91
    Quote Originally Posted by dnespins View Post
    these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.
    The Fins had the lead plenty of times this season, and they`re still bottom 3 in the league in rushing attempts... explain that...?
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  7. -47
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATL_PHIN_FAN View Post
    Shou and Co., please forget the promising appearance of the 4.1 rushing average. It means absolutely nothing in this case. Here's why:

    I believe other teams are getting 3-4 yards a pop and an occasional 10-30. That's typical for a decent rushing game. Their 4 yard average is constructive.

    1. It earns them balance, which is needed to loosen up tight coverage of receivers, pulling the defense in closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the passing game a better chance of success.

    2. It gives them a real chance to run out the clock as halves close. If you can be fairly certain of 3.0 each rushing attempt, all you have to do is run it 3 times and get lucky on one of them for that extra yard. Even if you don't quite make it, you have the option of going for it on 4th and short, and likely making it. You've also run minutes of precious time off the clock or forced your opponent to take defensive time outs. Not ideal for them!

    3. If the opposing defense tries to stack the box against a rush, especially on an obvious rushing play like 4th and inches, there's no better time to attempt a play action pass! (approaching 85% chance of success, I'd wager).

    This is what the Dolphins of the '70s did all the time.

    On the other hand, our current running game is so sporadic that it cannot be counted on earning a 3rd and 1 conversion, for heaven's sake. Are we even above 30% for the year? I've be surprised if we are. That is NOT constructive. I can see why Sherman thinks he must pass as much as he does, even when we really, really need a first or to run down the clock dependably.
    So this is just what you believe subjectively, despite the fact that the Dolphins are successful on 41.1% of their runs, which is currently 12th-best in the league?

    Additionally, are you aware that it's rushing attempts, even in the first half, that strongly predict winning, not rushing success?

    The relevant data here are that the Dolphins are the third-worst team in the league in terms of balance generated by running the ball, despite the fact that there is no objective information available that they run the ball any worse than the average team when they do run it.

    This is very simple. Mike Sherman isn't running the ball enough. I don't think we need to squirm around and contort ourselves into explaining that away with irrelevant and subjective perceptions.
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  8. -48
    TX-FinFan's Avatar
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    It would be interesting to analyze the distribution of runs and yardage gained by down and distance. Seems like even on 3rd and 1 we are afraid to run it and instead try some silly pass. If we don't have the confidence in our line to get 1 freaking yard we got problems.
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  9. -49
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    Its gonna be interesting to see what the plan is against the Jets, they have the number 1 ranked rush defense but they are a little weak against the pass. Carolina has the number 3 ranked rush defense fwiw. This is how our running backs have fared against other top rushing defenses:

    3. Carolina---- 16 yards
    6. Baltimore- 16 yards
    8. Tampa Bay- 2 yards

    Thigpen better be up to the task.
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  10. -50
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    1972 Dolphins Logo2013 Dolphins LogoCam Wake 91
    Well if they're not going to run, they better pass it on all vertical levels to keep the D somewhat honest.
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