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Thread: Sherman In A Nutshell

  1. -21
    WVDolphan's Avatar
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    Sherman is a ****ing beast.
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  2. -22
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    Shouright,

    My purpose is not to challenge your assertion that the Dolphins' rushing "success" rate is near the league average according to the Football Outsiders DVOA. I believe you, I promise!!

    My goal is to see if I can identify another statistic involving a team's rushing performance that correlates highly with winning percentage and is easier to interpret than is rushing attempt differential.

    Saying it another way, I am trying to define rushing "success" without relying on either rushing attempts differential or Football Outsiders DVOA. The challenge at arriving at an alternative definition of rushing success is how/whether to quantify the impact of outliers.

    You have stated that the correlation between average YPC and winning percentage is low. My hypothesis is that the reason it is low is because a high YPC can be inflated by a couple of large gains. My thought is that if a high YPC is achieved via a larger degree of consistency, it would be more predictive of winning percentage. Rightly or wrongly,my thought was that a large positive skewness could quantify a team's lack of rushing consistency for a given level of mean YPC.

    A "naive" definition of skewness is to calculate (mean - median) / standard deviation across a team's set of rushing yards per play in a given game. This provides a way to quantify the extent by which the average YPC was inflated by a few large rushing gains. I understand that such an analysis would be cumbersome.

    With respect to today's game, the Dolphins rushing game appeared dominant using the "eyeball" test as compared with the Jets rushing game, despite the Dolphins lower mean YPC. What peaks my curiosity is whether the Dolphins lower (apparent) skewness of the distribution of rushing yards across all such attempts can explain the perceived relative rushing dominance by the Dolphins.


    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    0.28.

    As for what you added above, how should we define "success"? I showed you the other day that the Dolphins' success rate in terms of one measure of it is no worse than the league average.
    Last edited by nyashfan; 12-02-2013 at 02:29 AM.
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  3. -23
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyashfan View Post
    Shouright,

    My purpose is not to challenge your assertion that the Dolphins' rushing "success" rate is near the league average according to the Football Outsiders DVOA. I believe you, I promise!!

    My goal is to see if I can identify another statistic involving a team's rushing performance that correlates highly with winning percentage and is easier to interpret than is rushing attempt differential.

    Saying it another way, I am trying to define rushing "success" without relying on either rushing attempts differential or Football Outsiders DVOA. The challenge at arriving at an alternative definition of rushing success is how/whether to quantify the impact of outliers.

    You have stated that the correlation between average YPC and winning percentage is low. My hypothesis is that the reason it is low is because a high YPC can be inflated by a couple of large gains. My thought is that if a high YPC is achieved via a larger degree of consistency, it would be more predictive of winning percentage. Rightly or wrongly,my thought was that a large positive skewness could quantify a team's lack of rushing consistency for a given level of mean YPC.

    A "naive" definition of skewness is to calculate (mean - median) / standard deviation across a team's set of rushing yards per play in a given game. This provides a way to quantify the extent by which the average YPC was inflated by a few large rushing gains. I understand that such an analysis would be cumbersome.

    With respect to today's game, the Dolphins rushing game appeared dominant using the "eyeball" test as compared with the Jets rushing game, despite the Dolphins lower mean YPC. What peaks my curiosity is whether the Dolphins lower (apparent) skewness of the distribution of rushing yards across all such attempts can explain the perceived relative rushing dominance by the Dolphins.
    I know you caveated the skewness measure but am curious if this formula is something commonly practiced. It's just interesting to see a "mean-median" calculation when one is used in parametric stats and the other in non-parametric stats. I'd be interested in any link to this use of the mean and median.

    I'd also be interested if you guys have ever tried fitting any type of model to "winning/losing" outcome for the same data set that you are calculating the correlations from. Be interesting to see what a model "says" that gives you the optimal chance of winning. Good stuff here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATL_PHIN_FAN View Post
    Agreed, but I'm not certain its Sherman who's predominantly preferring to pass in those situations. He may be getting overruled. I say that due to several comments Sherman made about play selection in the preseason. Just sayin'. Also, as you said to me earlier, there's the fact that Sherman did not have this tendency with other teams he's been successful with.
    Which is why I want Philbin and Sherman gone. Philbin's system pretty much ignores the running game, and Sherman's playcalling often stalls what little momentum they do get when running the ball.
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  5. -25
    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyashfan View Post
    Shouright,

    My purpose is not to challenge your assertion that the Dolphins' rushing "success" rate is near the league average according to the Football Outsiders DVOA. I believe you, I promise!!

    My goal is to see if I can identify another statistic involving a team's rushing performance that correlates highly with winning percentage and is easier to interpret than is rushing attempt differential.

    Saying it another way, I am trying to define rushing "success" without relying on either rushing attempts differential or Football Outsiders DVOA. The challenge at arriving at an alternative definition of rushing success is how/whether to quantify the impact of outliers.

    You have stated that the correlation between average YPC and winning percentage is low. My hypothesis is that the reason it is low is because a high YPC can be inflated by a couple of large gains. My thought is that if a high YPC is achieved via a larger degree of consistency, it would be more predictive of winning percentage. Rightly or wrongly,my thought was that a large positive skewness could quantify a team's lack of rushing consistency for a given level of mean YPC.

    A "naive" definition of skewness is to calculate (mean - median) / standard deviation across a team's set of rushing yards per play in a given game. This provides a way to quantify the extent by which the average YPC was inflated by a few large rushing gains. I understand that such an analysis would be cumbersome.

    With respect to today's game, the Dolphins rushing game appeared dominant using the "eyeball" test as compared with the Jets rushing game, despite the Dolphins lower mean YPC. What peaks my curiosity is whether the Dolphins lower (apparent) skewness of the distribution of rushing yards across all such attempts can explain the perceived relative rushing dominance by the Dolphins.
    And all that makes sense, but I think the measure you're after, despite the fact that it's theoretically sound, would pale in comparison in sophistication to what's expounded on the Advanced NFL Stats website with regard to rushing success rate, in terms of how its defined by positive expected points added.

    Sometimes other people have already done the work for us.
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  6. -26
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    http:// http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonparametric_skew

    I asked Shouright if there is a public database to download in order to do analyses and he didn't think there was. I think he gets pre-aggregated data from Football Outsiders and then does his own correlations.

    The motivation behind using the (mean - median) / standard deviation definition of skewness is that its domain is from -1 to +1. It is thus interpretable in a similar manner to a correlation. See attached link.

    I have never seen skewness used for anything. I have no idea if my hypothesis is correct. I was just "thinking outside the box" and skewness popped into my head as something potentially interesting to look at.

    If Shouright had the data, he could do one of his partial correlation calculations between winning percentage and mean YPC, controlling for skewness.




    Quote Originally Posted by royalshank View Post
    I know you caveated the skewness measure but am curious if this formula is something commonly practiced. It's just interesting to see a "mean-median" calculation when one is used in parametric stats and the other in non-parametric stats. I'd be interested in any link to this use of the mean and median.

    I'd also be interested if you guys have ever tried fitting any type of model to "winning/losing" outcome for the same data set that you are calculating the correlations from. Be interesting to see what a model "says" that gives you the optimal chance of winning. Good stuff here.
    Last edited by nyashfan; 12-02-2013 at 01:32 PM.
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  7. -27
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    Sherman In A Nutshell - good place for him. Leave him there.
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  8. -28
    Shouright's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyashfan View Post
    http:// http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonparametric_skew

    I asked Shouright if there is a public database to download in order to do analyses and he didn't think there was. I think he gets pre-aggregated data from Football Outsiders and then does his own correlations.

    The motivation behind using the (mean - median) / standard deviation definition of skewness is that its domain is from -1 to +1. It is thus interpretable in a similar manner to a correlation. See attached link.

    I have never seen skewness used for anything. I have no idea if my hypothesis is correct. I was just "thinking outside the box" and skewness popped into my head as something potentially interesting to look at.

    If Shouright had the data, he could do one of his partial correlation calculations between winning percentage and mean YPC, controlling for skewness.
    See what you think when you click on "Show All..." in the table entitled "Team Offense" at this link:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards
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  9. -29
    Ruckus45's Avatar
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    Cam Wake 91Dolphins Homer
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  10. -30
    nyashfan's Avatar
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    So this shows the number of 20+ yard rushing plays by team. Is that the point or is its downloadability the point?

    To calculate means, medians etc. you would need data for each rushing play.



    Quote Originally Posted by shouright View Post
    See what you think when you click on "Show All..." in the table entitled "Team Offense" at this link:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards
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