I posted this earlier in another thread but I still see posts coming up about playoff scenarios maybe this will help everybody understand the situation with 3 games to go.
Here are possible records and how we would look:
First off . . . there is no way Miami can make it in at 7-9. Let's get that out of the way. We would lose a divisional tiebreaker to the Jets. So even if every team on that list is 7-9, we'd be 1-5 in the division while the Jets would be 3-3. Buffalo can actually make it in at 7-9 with the right combo as they would be 4-2 in the division and own the critical tiebreak we wish we had over the Ravens.
8-8 is much more promising. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means either the Jets finishing with a worse record (7-9 or 6-10) or both teams finishing 8-8 with Miami's lone win coming in week 17 against the Jets (head to head tiebreak which Miami would win with a sweep).
Once you win a divisional tiebreak, you face the same dilemma you have in a 10-6 tiebreak . . . which is Baltimore. The great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. If Baltimore were to lose out and go 7-9, Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are 8-8. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.
If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak based on common games (which is more valuable when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, you could also hope Baltimore beats Detroit, but loses to NE and Cincy . . . keeping them at 6 conference wins. Then a team like San Diego or the Titans finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. everybody elses 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Bmore owns over us.
San Diego can still go 9-7 also . . . which obviously makes 8-8 not good enough.
At 9-7, divisionally speaking, the Dolphins would still have to hope the Jets don't win out (which means beating us in week 17). If that happens, we lose a common games tiebreak to the Jets (division record would be tied at 3-3) and they take the divisional tiebreak. The best way to look at common games IMO is to take the 2 uncommon games and the team with the "worse" record in those uncommon games would by default have a better record in common games. Miami is 2-0 in uncommon games (wins against Indy and San Diego), which means they'd be 7-7 in common games. The Jets would be 1-1 in uncommon games (loss to Tennessee but win against Oakland) which would make them 8-6 in common games . . . a better record than Miami. Hope that makes sense.
Once you win the divisional tiebreak, ****ing Baltimore is the team that can still burn us by finishing 9-7. . . . however now there is a new twist. Cincy could lose out . . . . and if that happens, we get the 6 seed by default as Baltimore would win the division if both Cincy and Baltimore finish at 9-7. Head to head tiebreaks over a 9-7 Cincy and a potential 9-7 Chargers team favor us as we have beaten both teams.
There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning 2 of 3, with one of those wins being against Detroit. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak.
First off if this team finishes 10-6 and misses the playoffs it would be a damn shame, but it is still very possible if New England, KC, Cincy all reach 11 wins and Baltimore wins out and goes 10-6. That is the only way Miami is eliminated at 10-6.
There are tons of scenarios of getting into the playoffs at 10-6 right now, I'll give a few of them.
1. Miami can get the 2nd seed and a first round bye by hoping New England loses out, Cincy loses 2 of their final 3 games, and Indy loses another game. Miami would win the division and own tiebreaks over all of them (a 10-6 Baltimore team could also get the 2nd seed in this scenario . . . it gets tricky as a 10-6 Indy team helps us but a 9-7 Indy team helps them.).
2. Obviously the 3rd and 4th seeds still require a divisional tiebreaker against New England, meaning New England losing out and us winning out. We'd have the 4-2 divisional tiebreak vs. their 3-3 tiebreak. Cincy or Indy would have 11 wins in this scenario.
3. The 5th seed is only on the table if Miami wins out, doesn't win the division and KC loses out. KC has a terrible conference record (3 games up on Miami, yet tied in conference record . . . think about that) and would lose ALL 10-6 tiebreaks. They need that 11th win more than anybody to ensure the playoffs.
4. 6th seed is most likely at this time because I don't see NE and KC losing out . . . 1 more win by both and Miami can ONLY get the 6 seed. That is what we probably should be expecting. I will say that week 16 Bmore/NE game will be an interesting root for us. Obviously the better chance relies in NE beating Bmore and opening up the 6 seed path . . . but if Bmore beats NE, and we would of beaten NE the week before . . . we open up the chance to win the division in week 17.
5. Easiest Scenario to get in at 10-6 via tiebreak is having Cincy lose one of the next 2 games and that Bmore/Cincy game be a winner in / loser out scenario. It's that simple.
Should be a lot of fun. We just need to handle ours and let it all play out.