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Thread: The Official Playoff Scenario Thread w/ 3 Games Left

  1. -1
    Kdawg954's Avatar
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    Playoffs The Official Playoff Scenario Thread w/ 3 Games Left

    I posted this earlier in another thread but I still see posts coming up about playoff scenarios maybe this will help everybody understand the situation with 3 games to go.

    Here are possible records and how we would look:

    7-9

    First off . . . there is no way Miami can make it in at 7-9. Let's get that out of the way. We would lose a divisional tiebreaker to the Jets. So even if every team on that list is 7-9, we'd be 1-5 in the division while the Jets would be 3-3. Buffalo can actually make it in at 7-9 with the right combo as they would be 4-2 in the division and own the critical tiebreak we wish we had over the Ravens.

    8-8

    8-8 is much more promising. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means either the Jets finishing with a worse record (7-9 or 6-10) or both teams finishing 8-8 with Miami's lone win coming in week 17 against the Jets (head to head tiebreak which Miami would win with a sweep).

    Once you win a divisional tiebreak, you face the same dilemma you have in a 10-6 tiebreak . . . which is Baltimore. The great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. If Baltimore were to lose out and go 7-9, Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are 8-8. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.

    If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak based on common games (which is more valuable when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, you could also hope Baltimore beats Detroit, but loses to NE and Cincy . . . keeping them at 6 conference wins. Then a team like San Diego or the Titans finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. everybody elses 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Bmore owns over us.

    San Diego can still go 9-7 also . . . which obviously makes 8-8 not good enough.


    9-7

    At 9-7, divisionally speaking, the Dolphins would still have to hope the Jets don't win out (which means beating us in week 17). If that happens, we lose a common games tiebreak to the Jets (division record would be tied at 3-3) and they take the divisional tiebreak. The best way to look at common games IMO is to take the 2 uncommon games and the team with the "worse" record in those uncommon games would by default have a better record in common games. Miami is 2-0 in uncommon games (wins against Indy and San Diego), which means they'd be 7-7 in common games. The Jets would be 1-1 in uncommon games (loss to Tennessee but win against Oakland) which would make them 8-6 in common games . . . a better record than Miami. Hope that makes sense.

    Once you win the divisional tiebreak, ****ing Baltimore is the team that can still burn us by finishing 9-7. . . . however now there is a new twist. Cincy could lose out . . . . and if that happens, we get the 6 seed by default as Baltimore would win the division if both Cincy and Baltimore finish at 9-7. Head to head tiebreaks over a 9-7 Cincy and a potential 9-7 Chargers team favor us as we have beaten both teams.

    There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning 2 of 3, with one of those wins being against Detroit. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak.

    10-6

    First off if this team finishes 10-6 and misses the playoffs it would be a damn shame, but it is still very possible if New England, KC, Cincy all reach 11 wins and Baltimore wins out and goes 10-6. That is the only way Miami is eliminated at 10-6.

    There are tons of scenarios of getting into the playoffs at 10-6 right now, I'll give a few of them.

    1. Miami can get the 2nd seed and a first round bye by hoping New England loses out, Cincy loses 2 of their final 3 games, and Indy loses another game. Miami would win the division and own tiebreaks over all of them (a 10-6 Baltimore team could also get the 2nd seed in this scenario . . . it gets tricky as a 10-6 Indy team helps us but a 9-7 Indy team helps them.).

    2. Obviously the 3rd and 4th seeds still require a divisional tiebreaker against New England, meaning New England losing out and us winning out. We'd have the 4-2 divisional tiebreak vs. their 3-3 tiebreak. Cincy or Indy would have 11 wins in this scenario.

    3. The 5th seed is only on the table if Miami wins out, doesn't win the division and KC loses out. KC has a terrible conference record (3 games up on Miami, yet tied in conference record . . . think about that) and would lose ALL 10-6 tiebreaks. They need that 11th win more than anybody to ensure the playoffs.

    4. 6th seed is most likely at this time because I don't see NE and KC losing out . . . 1 more win by both and Miami can ONLY get the 6 seed. That is what we probably should be expecting. I will say that week 16 Bmore/NE game will be an interesting root for us. Obviously the better chance relies in NE beating Bmore and opening up the 6 seed path . . . but if Bmore beats NE, and we would of beaten NE the week before . . . we open up the chance to win the division in week 17.

    5. Easiest Scenario to get in at 10-6 via tiebreak is having Cincy lose one of the next 2 games and that Bmore/Cincy game be a winner in / loser out scenario. It's that simple.


    Should be a lot of fun. We just need to handle ours and let it all play out.
    Last edited by Kdawg954; 12-10-2013 at 08:29 PM.
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    hooshoops's Avatar
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    assuming this is all accurate i think they should sticky this and then every week kdawg can create a new updated one...
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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    A lot of scenarios but to me the most logical one is getting the 6 seed over Baltimore. If we were to lose one they need to lose two. That is very possible considering they got the Lions, Pats, and Bengals left. It could be huge to beat the Pats this week. If we do 10-6 is likely. Although you can never over look anybody. Especially division rivals like the Bills and Jets.
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    As many of us said before...That Ravens loss was a killer.
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    Kdawg954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hooshoops View Post
    assuming this is all accurate i think they should sticky this and then every week kdawg can create a new updated one...
    No issues with that, Ravens play on Monday night . . . I can imagine a lot of Dolfans will be watching that one. I'll update it after the game or the following morning.
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    Wouldnt it just be easier to read my MUCH shorter thread laying out the 4 scenarios in which we make the playoffs?????
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    MRojas4's Avatar
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    So....

    Root for the Chargers, Root for any team playing Ravens and Bengals.

    Got it. Thanks!
    "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
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    TheMageGandalf's Avatar
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    Isn't New England 9-4?

    New England CAN'T finish 11-5 if we win out and BALTIMORE wins out. Because that means New England LOST to us AND Baltimore...so they'd be at best 10-6.

    New England plays us and then Baltimore after.

    EDIT: How do the tie-breakers come up with all three at 10-6?
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    Kdawg954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMageGandalf View Post
    Isn't New England 9-4?

    New England CAN'T finish 11-5 if we win out and BALTIMORE wins out. Because that means New England LOST to us AND Baltimore...so they'd be at best 10-6.

    New England plays us and then Baltimore after.
    Pats are 10-3 . . . they beat Cleveland last week.

    ---------- Post added at 02:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:17 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by MRojas4 View Post
    So....

    Root for the Chargers, Root for any team playing Ravens and Bengals.

    Got it. Thanks!
    More important to root against the Ravens and Bengals . . . .but yea the Chargers, Steelers and Titans could all help us in a 8-8 scenario. Also, and this goes without saying, you'd like to get the Jets out of the way before week 17.
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    TheMageGandalf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdawg954 View Post
    Pats are 10-3 . . . they beat Cleveland last week.
    Wait what...mother...yeah never mind...
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