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Thread: Draft player or need?

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    syborg's Avatar
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    OPINION Draft player or need?

    You are drafting for your NFL team.. your biggest need is OT but the best player on the board is a WR - would you draft opposed to need in order to get the best player (the WR) out there and use FA to get your 'need' or do you draft directly to need regardless of who is on the board.... after all you have perfectly good WRs in place already so why spend the big bucks on the new WR in an early round and miss out on your big need on the line??

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    How good is the remaining O lineman? I mean, let's say you're looking at Taylor Lewan or Mike Evans, pretty much the number 3 O lineman and 1 WR. You have to ask yourself if their differences are wide enough to go for Evans over Lewan. Frankly I think at 19 Miami is going to be looking at Zack Martin v. players like Ebron, Pryor, or Benjamin. At that point all three of the non linemen are better than Martin so you take one of them.

    Alright. Let's say it's Lewan and the best player on the board is Blake Bortles. Does Miami take a QB in the first? Probably not, and at that point you have the same issue as the second scenario, but now you have an option of trading back, adding picks, because someone wants Bortles.
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    2013 Dolphins LogoRadioactiveCam Wake 91Tannehill 17
    I don't think it's that black and white. There are a lot of factors that play into a selection. Of the available OTs how many are a scheme fit for the ZBS? If you don't take an OT in the 1st round what is the likelihood you can grab one in a later round that also fits the scheme? If you select a position that is not your greatest need then how does he fit into the plans for the upcoming season? How and when will you address the needs of the team/roster during the draft? Contingency, contingency, contingency.

    IMO if it was the absolute best rated player on your board is WR when your pick is up and he's a sure fire, can't miss prospect then I draft him if all the OTs are off the board. No one knows how Brandon Gibson or Binns will look when they rejoin the team next year coming off of ACL surgery. It may cause you to have to overdraft a position of need later but if there's a chance to get an elite skill position player, which we have very few of, I think you make that call.

    Realistically I don't see a WR in this draft worthy of the #19 overall pick. Sammy Watkins will probably be gone in the top 15, after that you're looking at Marqise Lee who's a lot like Mike Wallace to me except a better route runner but you have major concerns over durability with him, he's also not very physical and you wonder how he'll do against press coverage (which we see a lot in this division) and Mike Evans who I'm not high on...big bodied receiver, kind of stiff, not a very good route runner, not really a good fit for this offense. He looks good playing "backyard football" with Manziel who ad-libs a lot of plays but in a more structured setting...don't know. I'm not a fan of Kelvin Benjamin either and there will be higher rated players at #19 than him.
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    Quote Originally Posted by datruth55 View Post
    I don't think it's that black and white. There are a lot of factors that play into a selection. Of the available OTs how many are a scheme fit for the ZBS? If you don't take an OT in the 1st round what is the likelihood you can grab one in a later round that also fits the scheme? If you select a position that is not your greatest need then how does he fit into the plans for the upcoming season? How and when will you address the needs of the team/roster during the draft? Contingency, contingency, contingency.

    IMO if it was the absolute best rated player on your board is WR when your pick is up and he's a sure fire, can't miss prospect then I draft him if all the OTs are off the board. No one knows how Brandon Gibson or Binns will look when they rejoin the team next year coming off of ACL surgery. It may cause you to have to overdraft a position of need later but if there's a chance to get an elite skill position player, which we have very few of, I think you make that call.

    Realistically I don't see a WR in this draft worthy of the #19 overall pick. Sammy Watkins will probably be gone in the top 15, after that you're looking at Marqise Lee who's a lot like Mike Wallace to me except a better route runner but you have major concerns over durability with him, he's also not very physical and you wonder how he'll do against press coverage (which we see a lot in this division) and Mike Evans who I'm not high on...big bodied receiver, kind of stiff, not a very good route runner, not really a good fit for this offense. He looks good playing "backyard football" with Manziel who ad-libs a lot of plays but in a more structured setting...don't know. I'm not a fan of Kelvin Benjamin either and there will be higher rated players at #19 than him.
    At 19, I'd consider Allen Robinson at a push, but that's about it. As you say, there are better players in other positions.
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    I used to think that drafting BIGGEST NEED was more important than drafting the BEST PLAYERS. But how far has this really gotten us? I think Ireland did not draft either our biggest need, nor did he take the best players on the board in his series of drafts over the years.

    To me the main reason we cannot compete with teams like the Patriots, Denver, etc., is our offense just doesn't put up enough points. You can be an average team defensively and win, but if you cannot score points with the way the NFL is currently set up, you are not going to win.

    I think we need to add another top WR, a solid TE and a quality RB...nothing against Miller and the other RB's, but we need guys who can catch the ball out of the backfield, and make some big plays.

    I would focus on getting weapons on offense, and get the O-lineman through free agency or later draft picks.
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    I don't believe in late decisions. In an ideal world, a general manager would be able to ignore the makeup of his team and rank the prospects first to last, and then robotically select the highest guy remaining. Even if you ended up with lopsided numbers at the same position in certain years I'm confident it would pay off handsomely, even if the fanbase might scream.

    Of course, I'm a systems guy. I believe in virtually anything that lessens subjectivity. There are some metrics showing up in regard to college players that look quite promising. In regard to wide receivers I've seen mentions of drop percentages and yards after catch and similar. I still think it's dangerous to get carried away with that and ignore long term excellence. For example, Marquise Lee may have dropped passes in bunches this year but he's been a star every year since I heard his name. I remember the Canes recruiting him passionately along with all the powerhouse schools. Then it translated quickly to college when he starred as a freshman. You want to believe he can't catch with his hands but then as a rookie he'll be what he's always been...one of the best on the field.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roman529 View Post
    I used to think that drafting BIGGEST NEED was more important than drafting the BEST PLAYERS. But how far has this really gotten us? I think Ireland did not draft either our biggest need, nor did he take the best players on the board in his series of drafts over the years.

    To me the main reason we cannot compete with teams like the Patriots, Denver, etc., is our offense just doesn't put up enough points. You can be an average team defensively and win, but if you cannot score points with the way the NFL is currently set up, you are not going to win.

    I think we need to add another top WR, a solid TE and a quality RB...nothing against Miller and the other RB's, but we need guys who can catch the ball out of the backfield, and make some big plays.

    I would focus on getting weapons on offense, and get the O-lineman through free agency or later draft picks.
    I pretty much agree. You win with playmakers and guys that can score points. I'd not go WR at 19 tho. I'd rather go TE and the RB and WR later on.I agree also on trying to get at least 2 starting o-linemen in free agency.

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    I think folks were relating my OP to what is actually happening with the Dolphins.. I am not it was a hypothetical.. what would YOU do drafting for an NFL team.. how would YOU approach the draft and how would YOU choose the players you picked.. would you base it purely no the needs of the team or on the best player left in the draft pool whether that be a WR a RB a CB a LB or other position when what you NEEDED was perhaps an OT or a TE or a DE for example...
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    You pick for need. Surely last year strengthens that argument. We had 3 legitimate pass rushing DE's, but a piss poor O'line which cost us a chance of playoffs and had our No.1 priority RT, running for his life all season.

    What I would do though is handle re-signings and FA, so that your perceived needs are the strength of the draft.

    This year I would double up on 4 positions, WR, OT, DT & CB, with us targeting one of the OT's in 1st round.
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    Quote Originally Posted by normaniii View Post
    You pick for need. Surely last year strengthens that argument. We had 3 legitimate pass rushing DE's, but a piss poor O'line which cost us a chance of playoffs and had our No.1 priority RT, running for his life all season.

    What I would do though is handle re-signings and FA, so that your perceived needs are the strength of the draft.

    This year I would double up on 4 positions, WR, OT, DT & CB, with us targeting one of the OT's in 1st round.
    You draft BPA. The draft is an inexact science. Roughly 1/3 of 1st rd picks are busts or never live up to their draft status. You reduce your risk of missing on a 1st rd pick when you take the highest graded player. If you draft for need (especially if you reach) and the player is a bust, then you are back at square one. In many ways, the draft is a crapshoot, so you have to play the odds. First and foremost you want good football players. Its better to stockpile talent because you can always trade away in a position of depth.
    After Shula had success in the 1990 draft with Richmond Webb and Keith Sims, he thought he could repeat his success a few yrs later on the right side of the O line. He wanted Korey Stringer, but the Vikes took him a few picks before. Shula then reached and drafted Billy Milner (LT). He followed that up in the 2nd rd with another reach in Andrew Green (G). Neither player made an impact in the league.
    Even though O line was a need, Shula would have been better off picking the BPA and increasing the overall talent on the team.
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